Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 181348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
948 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Forecast is on track this morning. Early morning patchy fog has
mostly dissipated, though some smoke/fog combination is still
observed near a couple of active fires over the interior. Light
winds will become dominated by sea/lake breezes this afternoon. An
isolated shower will be possible over the far south and southeast
Peninsula this afternoon, but most places will remain dry.


After a little patchy fog in the interior this morning, VFR
conditions prevail across South FL. Generally light west winds
today, though an Atlantic sea breeze will develop and push inland
through the east coast terminals around 19Z, switching winds to
east for mid-late afternoon before becoming light and variable
after sunset. Tonight, areas of fog and low stratus will be
possible over the interior and Gulf Coast region of South FL,
which may affect KAPF after midnight.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

Atlantic surface high pressure will continue to hold over South
Florida to end the weekend and kick off the next work week. The
light flow and increasing moisture will allow for temperatures and
relative humidity to creep higher. An east coast sea breeze
developing today could also bring a slight chance of showers along
the east coast metro areas, particularly southern portions of
Miami-Dade County. The higher surface moisture and light wind will
combine to create the potential for fog again overnight.

To the north, an advancing low pressure system will push into the
Tennessee River Valley late Monday into Tuesday. The associated
cold front will be slightly delayed from reaching south of
Interstate 4 until the surface high pressure retreats. This will
open the door for the front to push south into the area on
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Guidance is still depicting a strong
low level jet coincident with the passage of this convection ahead
of the front, which could allow for the potential of strong
thunderstorms over portions of South Florida.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the Lake
Okeechobee region in the marginal risk area of the Day 3 Outlook
(SWODY3). Other portions of the peninsula to the north are under
the Slight or Enhanced risk areas. This will need to be monitored
over the coming days as the severe weather threat could change
depending on the timing of the system and the location of the
atmospheric ingredients necessary to create a severe weather

The front should clear the region early on Wednesday with cooler,
drier air trailing in its wake. This will return our region to
crisp, cool nights and bright, sunny days. By the weekend, high
pressure builds over the area and zonal flow aloft will keep the
next front to the northern parts of Florida with little ability to
advance southward until past the end of the weekend.

Light wind as surface high pressure continues to hold over the
region. Winds increase out of the southwest on Monday ahead of
the next cold front. Hazardous SW wind is possible Tuesday,
followed by some gusty northwest wind and elevated seas behind a
cold front Tuesday night into Thursday. Some thunderstorms may
accompany the front Tuesday night and Wednesday.


West Palm Beach  82  65  85  69 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  83  69  83  71 /  10  10  10   0
Miami            83  68  84  70 /  10  10  10   0
Naples           81  66  82  68 /  10  10  10  20



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