Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 140544 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 144 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy west winds continue into this evening in between strong low pressure over Quebec, and high pressure along the Gulf coast. The high slides off the southeast coast on Sunday, bringing dry and very warm conditions to the local area. A weak backdoor cold front passes through later Monday, and is forecast to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night. A stronger cold front crosses the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 920 PM EDT Saturday... The latest WX analysis indicates an area of low pressure (~984mb) near Hudson`s Bay with a triple point low across Northern Maine around (991 mb). Meanwhile, sfc high pressure (~1025mb) centered across the Northern Gulf of Mexico is building northward into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. Winds have diminish after sunset, becoming light and calm. So given the dry airmass in place, light winds and clear sky, lows should be able to fall to near 40F/lower 40s in the piedmont, with low- mid 40s for most of the area, and upper 40s along the immediate coast. The upper flow turns more zonal for Sunday as thicknesses build over the Mid-Atlantic. This pattern also favors warmer temps as low level flow turns around to the SW. These SW winds Sunday will be lighter (compared to past two days) but still gusty to 20-30 mph in the afternoon hours. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s except in the low- mid 70s on the eastern shore. Dew pts will be higher, but likely below what NBM and the other models depict (as is typical this time of year). See Fire WX section below as an IFD may be needed. A weak perturbation passing through the OH River Valley will also allow for an increase in mid/high clouds during the aftn timeframe. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday... Lows Sun night will also be much milder: in the upper 50s/low 60s. Monday will be even warmer with most areas likely to see one of the warmest days so far this year. The current forecast has low- mid 80s for most of our VA and NC counties with upper 70s on the eastern shore. As mentioned before, continued high clouds should keep the sky partly to mostly sunny. Also cannot rule out a very brief shower with a moisture-starved frontal boundary dropping S through the area. Coverage should be low (20% or less) given low sfc moisture. Overnight lows Mon look to be around 50F NE to upper 50s S. The flow turns weak over the area Tuesday as ridging gradually builds over the area. WPC progs and model guidance show the remnant boundary from Monday pushing a bit farther S compared to previous runs, potentially not lifting back N until later Tuesday through Tuesday night. Light easterly flow is likely NE of the boundary and S/SE flow SW of the boundary. Thus, there will probably be a decent gradient in highs Tuesday, ranging from the low- mid 80s across south central VA and interior NE NC to the upper 60s to lower 70s close to the coast. The other thing the mention is model soundings show a decent amount of sfc-based instability (500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) along and SW of this boundary with some higher dew points likely to pool where the warmer temps reside. Therefore, there could be some pop-up showers and thunderstorms S of I-64 given the boundary nearby. Have painted a broad 20% PoP for most of VA, increasing to 25-30% in this region Tuesday evening. With weak shear, no severe wx is expected. Lows Tue night low 50s NE to upper 50s central and SW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Saturday... Low pressure is forecast to lift ENE through the upper Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will also extend S/SW into the southern states. There will tend to be more clouds Wednesday, though precip chances will be low w/ little forcing (some slight chc PoPs will remain over the far N closer to the boundary). Highs in the mid 70s NE to the upper 70s to lower 80s elsewhere. While still warm, Thu-Fri no longer look as warm as they did a few days ago w/ less in the way of ridging over the area. The cold front moves toward the area Friday with a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms. PoPs are 30-40% at this time due to 1) models showing the front losing moisture E of the Appalachians and 2) differences among when the front actually crosses the area. Cooler Friday with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to near 80F. Overnight temps will remain on the mild side and in the 60s Wed night and 50s Thu night. Cooler behind the front, with highs Sat in the 60s to around 70F with lows into the 40s Sat night. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 145 AM EDT Sunday... VFR prevails through the 14/06z period. Light winds early this morning under a clear sky. SW winds become gusty yet again Sun aftn to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt (highest SBY). Mainly SKC as well with just some higher clouds filtering in later this afternoon into the evening. Southwesterly LLWS is possible at the terminals after 00z Mon, with the best confidence of this at SBY (where it has been included in the TAF). Outlook: Dry/VFR tonight through early Monday. W winds Monday shift to the NE Monday night. SCT showers/storms possible Mon aftn/evening (best chance RIC/ORF/PHF/ECG) which could produce heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. There is a lower chance of showers/storms Tue aftn/Tue night. Isolated showers persist into Wed, though not expecting flight restrictions.
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&& .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... The pressure gradient remains compressed across the local waters with ~990mb low pressure over Quebec and 1026mb high pressure over the north central Gulf. Aloft, flow across the eastern half of the CONUS is NW between deep troughing over the western Atlantic and a broad ridge over across the Rockies. 15-25 kt NW winds with gusts 25- 30 kt continue over the waters this afternoon, especially adjacent to and downstream of land areas (rivers, sound, and western portions of the bay). Waves in the Ches Bay are 2-3 ft with seas 2-5 ft (highest N with a favorable fetch off of Delaware Bay). Expect gusty winds to continue for the next few hours before falling off with the loss of heating/mixing toward evening. SCA headlines remain as inherited: the southern Atlantic waters will end at 4pm with the remainder of the waters falling below SCA thresholds around 7pm. Sub-SCA winds continue tonight through the first half of Sunday before SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Ches Bay and likely into the adjacent rivers Sunday afternoon. Local wind probs have increased to >80% for 6-12 hours Sunday afternoon into the early overnight period. Seas are also forecast to build back to 4-6 ft for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Will hold off on further SCA headlines until the ongoing advisories expire. A weakening front is forecast to drop through the area late Monday into Monday night, with winds turning to the NE and then to the E-SE on Tuesday (generally staying sub-SCA through this timeframe given that it is a weakening front). && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 345 PM EDT Saturday... Afternoon relative humidities have dropped off into the 20-25% range across most of the region (with a few locations down below 20%). Winds are still gusty but will be diminishing over the next few hrs (and will then drop off rather quickly by sunset). Today has certainly been a significant drying day, and this could lead to some issues on Sunday as winds become gusty to 20-25 mph from the SW by late morning/aftn. Dew pts from models tend to be too high this time of year in decent mixing situations. Current forecast conditions are for min RH 25-35% Sunday afternoon. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ESS/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/SW LONG TERM...LKB/SW AVIATION...SW MARINE...ERI/RHR FIRE WEATHER...

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