Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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876 FXUS61 KAKQ 090233 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 933 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry weather is expected through Saturday. An approaching cold front brings a good chance of showers areawide later Sunday into Sunday night. Dry and seasonable weather returns for the beginning and middle of the next work week. Still some uncertainty if the region could see more beneficial rain late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 925 EST Friday... Key Messages: - Brief period of enhanced fire weather across northeastern Maryland. - Dry, cool, and clear night across the area Tonight. Latest analysis reveals a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across central and east-central NC, extending into the southeast. To the south, a stronger cold frontal boundary was just north of the local area. That front will be nudged south by 1028+mb sfc high pressure currently over the northern plains/upper midwest. Temperatures have already fallen ino the low to mid 50s inland, mid 50s to low 60s across S VA into N NC. Winds also increase overnight with cool air advection ensuing over the next few hours. NNW winds become gusty, especially along the coast, with gusts around 20 mph possible after midnight. A good deal cooler tonight with lows dropping into the low-mid 40s well inland, with mid 40s to lower 50s from the I-95 corridor to the Atlantic coast under a clear to mostly clear sky. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 310 PM EST Friday... Key Message: - Cooler, but dry, Saturday. - Could see another brief period of enhanced fire danger across the eastern shore Saturday. - Shower chances increase later Sunday ahead of a cold front. Rain totals generally remain under a half inch. Saturday and Sunday will be quite cooler than in previous days due to passing cold front and a high pressure building into the region. Saturdays highs will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Dew points will be substantially lower than in previous days with lower to middle 30 dew points across much of Virginia and North Carolina. Across the Eastern Shore dew points will tank into the middle to upper 20s. Winds are expected to remain the highest in the early morning hours of saturday with wind speeds between 5-10 kt and gusts up to 15 kt. In the late morning and early afternoon hours there could potentially be a second surge of cooler air that could bring an enhanced fire danger primarily across the Eastern Shore. RH values for Saturday afternoon are expected to drop below 30%. However, the confidence is to low at the time to issue any SPS as the ingredients do not line up. There may be a brief period where the ingredients line up , but confidence is to low at this time to issue any statements. Lows Saturday night in the upper 30s inland and low-mid 40s closer to the coast. Lows could dip lower in the middle 30s as winds turn light, though this is dependent on the amount of cloud cover. High pressure will begin to shift further east by Sunday as another cold front approaches the area from the west. Ahead of the cold front southerly flow will help return moisture into the area. The low pressure system (that is now currently in Texas) will bring the potential for some beneficial rainfall across the area. The rain is expected fall from Sunday night into Monday morning. Have likely PoPs for the entire area during this period, with even categorical PoPs for the eastern half of the area after midnight. QPF totals are only expected to range between 0.25-0.5" (even lower SE), any rain is beneficial at this point. A large contrast in temps is expected Sunday, with only upper 50s across the wrn/NW Piedmont, mid 60s in the I-95 corridor, and upper 60s-lower 70s on the Eastern Shore and in SE VA/NE NC. Milder overnight (in the 50s) with the rain and southerly flow.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 310 PM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Lingering showers along the coast Monday, but dry and mild for most. - Dry/seasonable weather is expected next Tuesday and Wednesday. - Another chance of rain is possible with a cold front Thursday. The cold front will be exiting the area Monday and only lingering showers are forecast along the coast. With zonal flow aloft, highs Monday rebound back in the 70s. Overnight lows Monday range from the upper 40s W/NW to low-mid 50s E/SE. After Monday, dry weather returns to the region Tuesday and Wednesday with transient ridging aloft sliding through the Mid-Atlantic. Highs in the 60s both days, though Wednesday should be a degree or two cooler than Tuesday. Lows Tue/Wed night in the 40s. As for Thursday there still remains some uncertainity. The 09/12z ensemble guidance is in disagreement with each other. The GFS hints on a stronger stronger trough over the area while the EURO hints on a weaker trough. This leads to the uncertainty in precipitation chances on if a potential system could and form and where it could form. The ensembles have also backed off the probabilities of precipitation across the area. Right now pops are ranging between 20-30% across the area for Thursday. Due to the uncertainty pops were not changed as much from the previous forecast. Uncertainity should decrease as the Thursday approaches. Highs Thursday in the low-mid 60s with overnight lows in the lower 40s. Drying back out for next Friday. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 920 PM EST Friday... VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 00z TAF period looks to prevail through Saturday evening. Some scattered mid to upper level clouds this evening will become mainly SKC overnight. Winds are light and variable to begin the evening, but will veer around to the NNW late tonight behind another cold frontal passage. NNE winds increase tomorrow morning and gust to 20-25 kt (highest coastal areas) around and just after sunrise through midday, before diminishing gradually tomorrow afternoon and night under a mainly clear sky. Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected to persist through Saturday night. Another frontal system approaches the region Sun, with increasing clouds Sunday afternoon and night. A chance for showers develops by late Sun afternoon and continues Sunday night into Mon morning. Degraded flight conditions are possible Sunday night into Monday, before another frontal passage Monday brings clearing later Monday through the middle of next week. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EST Friday... Key Messages: - Secondary cold front crosses the waters tonight with strong N and NNE winds. Small Craft headlines remain in effect for all area waters from tonight into Saturday. - Multiple fronts cross the region next week, and could bring additional SCA conditions across the northern waters Sunday night into early Monday. Afternoon analysis shows strong low pressure over eastern Canada with this morning`s cold front now well south of the area. Winds this afternoon are generally from the N at 5-10 kt. Waves in the Ches Bay are around 1 foot with seas 1-3 ft offshore. Strong high pressure over the upper Midwest builds into the region tonight behind a secondary (dry) cold frontal passage. Cold/dry advection will ramp up quickly with winds increasing from 15-20 kt this evening up to 20-25 with gusts around 30 kt tonight. Waves in the bay build to 3-4 ft (4-5 ft briefly near the mouth) tonight before subsiding back to 2-3 ft by Saturday afternoon as winds decrease. Seas build as well but the offshore wind direction should keep seas in the 4-6 ft range tonight into Saturday. High pressure moves over the area Sunday with improving boating conditions. The high translates quickly offshore Sunday night with winds becoming SW and potentially increasing up to 15-20 kt over the northern waters. Seas may also build to 4-5 ft for the coastal waters near and north of Parramore Island. The remainder of the week will feature a series of disturbances aloft, with unsettled conditions possible Thursday into Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634>638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM NEAR TERM...HET/MAM SHORT TERM...HET/SW LONG TERM...HET/SW AVIATION...HET/MAM MARINE...RHR