Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 092340 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 640 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the area through Saturday, followed by a weak low pressure system late Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure builds back into the area early next week. Another low pressure system is expected to slowly approach the area during the middle part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 305 PM EST Friday... Strong high pressure remains near the Hudson Bay, with sfc ridging building south toward the area this aftn. Low pressure to our west continues to weaken as it approaches the local area. Skies are sunny across the NE two-thirds of the area (with the exception of marine stratocu), but remain cloudy from the south-central VA Piedmont to interior NE NC. The weak low to our west will continue to weaken tonight as high pressure continues to build southward. Will maintain slight chance PoPs across the far west this evening-tonight but the main impact to local weather will be more cloud cover along and west of I-95. Lows tonight range from the mid 30s along and SW of I-64 with mid 20s-lower 30s for the Northern Neck and MD Eastern Shore where cloud cover is expected to be the thinnest. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 305 PM EST Friday... The strong surface high remains in place just east of the Hudson Bay through the weekend, with ridging stretching south into the local area. A shortwave currently over the srn Great lakes is progged to shear out as it crosses the area on Saturday. This feature, combined with weak mid level overrunning, will bring mostly cloudy skies to the majority of the area on Sat (but measurable precipitation is still not expected). Forecast highs range from the mid 40s NW to the lower-mid 50s in SE VA/NE NC. A nrn stream shortwave trough dives under the building ridge aloft and tracks from the Great Lakes to srn New England Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a weak cold front towards the area. Meanwhile, a srn stream shortwave will track well to our south on Sun. While skies will be mainly cloudy on Sun, little to no measurable rain is expected as we will be in between these two features. Will keep slight chc PoPs in the nrn half of the area Sunday into Sunday evening before skies partially clear out Sun night after the cold FROPA. Forecast highs Sun range from the mid/upper 40s W to the low/mid 50s E. Lows Sun night fall into the 30s, with breezy conditions expected near the coast with N-NW winds behind the front. Canadian high pressure builds back toward the area again on Monday as low pressure deepens well offshore, resulting in cool/dry wx. Skies will be mainly clear inland/partly cloudy near the coast. Highs Mon in the upper 40s- lower 50s in most areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 PM EST Friday... The start of the period (Mon night) will feature a building ridge from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes, with deepening low pressure over the High Plains, and the0 strong offshore low just east of Nova Scotia. Ridging at the sfc and aloft will remain in control through at least Tue night, leading to cool/dry wx. Forecast lows Mon night are in the mid 20s to low 30s. Highs Tuesday mainly in the mid 40s despite mostly clear skies inland. More clouds are expected for Hampton Roads and areas to the south with northerly winds bringing some bay-effect clouds to the region through midday-early aftn. Low temps Tuesday night will fall into the mid 20s inland and on parts of the MD Ern Shore with upper 20s-lower 30s near the coast. The main forecast concern during the period will be the low pressure system that will impact the area Wed-Thu. The parent low across the central CONUS will weaken as it approaches on Wed/Thu. At the same time, a secondary low forms and deepens as it tracks from the Mid- Atlantic to the NE CONUS while the strong surface high to our north gradually retreats. While there are differences in timing (with the GFS/GEM faster than the ECMWF), precipitation will overspread the area from the west by late Wed/Wed night, and will have likely PoPs (capped at 60%) across the area on Thu. While the predominant p-type is expected to be rain, there is a non-zero chance of a short period of wintry precip at the onset, mainly across far NW portions of the area. NBMv4.1 probabilities of measurable (0.1") snow are 15-25% across the central VA Piedmont (NW of the Richmond Metro). NBMv4.1, GEFS, and EPS snow probabilities are higher well to our N and NW (in the higher elevations of NW VA into central PA). Will leave this mention out of the forecast for now given timing differences and low ensemble probabilities for wintry precipitation. Cool/dry wx should return by Fri. Forecast highs are in the 40s-50s on Wed/Thu (with overnight lows mainly in the 30s-lower 40s) , but this will change as the track, strength, and timing of the midweek low become more clear. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 640 PM EST Friday... VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 00z TAF period will continue through much of the 00z TAF period. The only exception to this will be SCT-BKN MVFR marine stratocu that could impact ORF/ECG between over the next few hours. Have allowed for a brief period of occasional CIGs ~3 KFT AGL through 3-4z this evening. Otherwise N-NE at 5-10 kt persists through the period. Mid to high level clouds will overspread the entire area overnight- Sat, but CIGs should remain above 5000 feet through the period. Some patchy drizzle or light rain will be possible after midnight west of the KRIC terminal, but otherwise expect terminals to remain dry overnight. Outlook: A weak low pressure system will bring another slight chc of rain late Saturday evening into early Sunday. High pressure returns Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... As of 305 PM EST Friday... SCAs remain in effect for the coastal waters through the weekend and the mouth of the Bay into Saturday primarily for elevated seas (5- 7ft) and waves (3-4ft at the mouth of the Bay). Will allow the SCA for Currituck Sound to expire at 4pm. Strong sfc high pressure (1048+mb) is situated over Quebec this afternoon and is building toward/into the local area. Breezy across local waters today, with most obs showing north winds at 12-15kt and gusts up to 18kt. Around the mouth of the Bay,though, obs are a bit higher with gusts around 20-22kt. Waves are 2-3ft in the Bay and seas are nearly 8ft in the southern waters and 5-6 north of NC border. Less than ideal boating conditions persist overnight and on Saturday as the strong sfc high is slow to push east across Quebec. A sfc low slides off the Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast N of the local waters late Sunday allowing for a cold front to push across the area and for winds to become NW, increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt late Sun night through Mon night. Additional SCAs will likely be needed for this surge (particularly across the Bay and the Currituck sound). Seas are forecast to build a little higher, potentially reaching to 7-9 ft by Mon night. Even as winds are forecast to slowly diminish by Tue, seas are expected to stay elevated, so SCAs will likely continue to be extended through at least the middle of the week. Forecast is uncertain going into the late week due to model disagreement, but SCAs could possibly go into next weekend in coastal waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 305 PM EST Friday... Expect to see slowly rising water levels/tidal departures into the weekend with a continued N/NE flow and seas remaining elevated w/ long period swell. As of right now, only low end minor flooding or action stage water levels are forecast through early monday. However, given that seas are forecast to remain elevated or even increase further into Tuesday, the potential is there for water to become trapped in the Bay which could lead to more significant flooding. Still a lot of uncertainty but will need to monitor the trends closely over the next few days.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI/RHR NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...ERI/RHR LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI/MAM MARINE...AM/LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.