Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 170934
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
234 AM PDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures are in the forecast
for the region through the middle of the week. Slight chances for
showers and lightning along the Sierra crest in Mono County Monday
and Tuesday. Better precipitation chances and cooler temperatures
look to return to the area late in the week and going through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure continues to work its way over the western US today.
From now through Wednesday we`ll finally see some of that
quintessential Spring weather - sunny, 70 degrees in lower valleys,
and light winds! Regional temperatures will increase almost 10
degrees above average by Tuesday, thanks to the hefty ridge moving
in.

It`s also worth mentioning that even though there will be synoptic-
scale subsidence in the atmosphere from the high pressure, the
low that`s still parked over SoCal may produce a couple showers
over the Sierra in Mono County Monday and Tuesday afternoons. SPC
has the Sierra from Alpine County southward in a shaded area for
thunderstorms on Monday, although all of the CAMs, NBM, and HREF
show no signs of any storms being strong enough to produce
lightning. The only parameter that really meets criteria is the
mid-level lapse rates, but even then any storms that do develop
will be on the western side of the crest in Madera County and
southward. The EC EFI does highlight an area of CAPE along the
crest on Monday and Tuesday, but again it`s west of the crest.
It`ll be something to monitor this afternoon to see if anything
changes in the lightning potential.

Starting late next week, GFS/EC ensembles are still trying to make
up their minds on when these storms are going to roll through late-
week. Best guess is they`re having a difficult time resolving the
breakdown of the current Rex Block, which has a fair amount of
uncertainty. So far, the ensembles have the first storm beginning
on Friday, while EC/GFS deterministic are showing Saturday.
Overall, still a lot to be sorted out in the long-term, but expect
unsettled weather to return to the area this weekend.

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

An area-wide gradual warming and drying trend expected today-Tuesday
as high pressure builds across the region. There`s a slight chance
for showers/thunder in Mono Co. and mainly west of the crest Monday
and Tuesday. Otherwise, light winds, VFR conditions (except near
showers), and good flying weather will be the norm through the first
half of this week.

-Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$


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