Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 132219
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
319 PM PDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong wind event unfolds along and west of the Sierra crest
tonight through Friday. Prepare for downed trees and powerlines
with choppy lake waters and bumpy flights through the end of the
week. Gusty winds in the western Nevada Basin could lead to
periods of blowing dust each afternoon through Friday. Otherwise,
dry and spring-like weather prevails into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough
over the Great Basin. This is the system that is forecast to
intensify as it develops into a closed low later today. The low
will start over the Northern Rockies and descends into NV/AZ/SoCA
while the upper high to the west continues to become more
amplified by tomorrow. In the meantime, northerly winds become
stronger this afternoon over the Sierra and area mountains in
western NV. Winds will not subside overnight in the Sierra, they
will slowly intensify as the pressure gradient near the surface
tightens with a strong push of cold air from the north and east.
Then, add a strong upper level jet of 100+ kts at 250 mb in a NE-
SW orientation will transfer some of these winds to the lower
levels which results in a set-up for strong and gusty winds over
the Sierra. This scenario appears to hold over through Friday.
However, the slight wobbling of the low will slightly relax the
gradient leading to slightly weaker winds. NBM guidance continues
to bring a 30-50% chance for gusts above 60 mph along US-395 in
Mono Co., and for the Tahoe Basin communities. For the Sierra
crest the probability of exceeding 60 mph is above 70%. Damaging
winds in excess of 100 mph are expected at the crest too. Impacts
include downed powerlines and trees, choppy waters on Lake Tahoe
and bumpy flights. For the aforementioned reasons, a High Wind
Warning is in effect starting at 11 PM this evening through
tomorrow Thursday.

Winds continue to be strong on Friday, but the intensity will be
slightly lower. We may end up extending the current warnings into
Friday to account for this, or degrade them to advisories
depending on the latest guidance. Anyway, still expect strong
winds through the day, Friday. Furthermore, patchy blowing dust
is likely with these winds in western NV, especially east of a
Pyramid Lake-Silver Springs- Yerington line. Lastly, there we have
a slight chance for precipitation on Friday over southern Mono
Co., but POPs are below 15%. If any snow falls, it will be very
light.

For this weekend and early next week, generally fair weather with
warm and dry conditions returns to the Sierra and western Nevada.
The main reason for this is the upper high pressure area that was
to our west moves into the PacNW, while the low remains to our
south in a block pattern. Therefore, temperatures are expected to
be 5-10 degrees above average along with dry weather through
Wednesday. By Wednesday, global models and their respective
ensembles start to show indications of another system affecting
the area.

Crespo

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Low level clouds will
be mostly clearing out through the day. The main concern will be
strong and gusty winds along with moderate to occasionally severe
turbulence and LLWS over the Sierra and vicinity. Sierra terminals
will experience winds up 20 kts and gusts to 35 kts, while western
NV terminals winds will be up to 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts this
afternoon. Winds in the Sierra remain high overnight and become
stronger tomorrow. Patchy BLDU is likely in western NV, especially
east of a Pyramid Lake-Silver Springs-Yerington line.

Crespo

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Thursday
     NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 5 PM PDT Friday NVZ002.

CA...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Thursday
     CAZ071>073.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 5 PM PDT Friday CAZ072.

&&

$$


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