Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 250131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
931 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Issued at 931 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Pronounced surface and upper level ridge axes remain over Michigan
late this evening. Skies remain clear across our entire CWA as a
result of strong subsidence and ample dry air thru the entire
column. Little will change overnight as this pattern continues to
hold over our state. Expect another cold night across the
Northwoods...with overnight lows mainly in the teens.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...Continued dry and cool...

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Afternoon composite analysis reveals
short wave ridging through the central CONUS bordered by short
wave troughs along both coasts. Detached short wave energy is
rolling through the Midwest and Ohio Valley bringing another round
of wintry weather to that region. But strong Canadian high
pressure across Ontario remains the dominant weather player for
northern Michigan...with very dry air/subsidence maintaining our
stretch of dry weather...albeit a bit on the cool side.

Primary Forecast Concerns...minimal. Strong Canadian high pressure
to our north will drift through eastern Canada through Sunday. But
strong subsidence and wedge of dry air cycling through the state
will keep dry conditions intact. Just enough shallow cold air
sliding down across Lake Huron that we may again see some lake
cloud development later tonight into Sunday morning. But
otherwise quiet.

Temps...MOS guidance temps have run much too cold over the last
several nights...on the order of 10 to 15 degrees cold. And
despite mostly clear skies anticipated tonight...with a bit of a
P-gradient/persistent low level wind...low temps will probably
rival last nights (mainly the teens). Have adjusted min temps
tonight accordingly.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...Warmer temperatures and much needed rain on the way...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Blocking pattern responsible for recent
prolonged stretch of dry and cool conditions showing signs of
breaking down as we head into next week. This allows the upper
levels to become quite a bit more progressive, sending western
ridging into and through the region Sunday and Monday, all-the-while
its surface reflection pivots into the northeast. Above sets the
stage for deepening southerly warm and moist flow, spiking
temperatures to above normal levels and bringing some much needed
rain to the region.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature and rain trends.

Details: Dry weather prevails Sunday night and Monday as mid level
ridge axis settles overhead. Bigger story will be those temperatures
as southeast winds strengthen on backside of retreating surface
high. Near normal lows Sunday night give way to highs pushing well
into the 40s Monday (perhaps near 50 degrees for parts of northern
lower) as plentiful sunshine only helps the warming cause. Low level
moisture will be very slow to increase, so combined with those
increasingly gusty southeast winds and prolonged stretch of dry
weather, could result in more elevated fire danger concerns Monday

Moisture advection ramps up considerably by later Monday night into
Tuesday as approach of upstream shortwave trough deepens and
strengthens elevated southwest flow. Low level jet will propel Gulf
of Mexico moisture northward, spiking precipitable water values up
to and perhaps just over an inch. Strong jet forcing and isentropic
upglide expected to spread precipitation from southwest to northeast
later Monday night into Tuesday morning. Of course, still some
uncertainty on when this all begins, but general model consensus is
all areas should see at least some precip by early Tuesday morning.
Strong warm advection should result in much of this precipitation
falling as rain, although cannot rule out a light wintry mix as
precip begins, especially across eastern upper Michigan. Not
expecting this to amount to much. As for rain totals, given strength
of forcing and moisture advection, would expect rain totals by the
end of Tuesday to average between a quarter to half an inch, with
some locally heavier amounts indeed possible. Clouds and rain will
temper temperatures some Tuesday, but still looking at highs similar
to those experienced Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...Turning cooler again by the end of the week...

High impact weather potential: Minimal (for now at least).

Progressive pattern estabilished early on in the week continues,
with broad troughing looking to become established across the
northern Conus/western Great Lakes. This will send lead cold front
across the area during mid-week (although with not much cool down
behind it). If pattern verifies as guidance depicts, secondary and
more aggressive push of colder air should arrive Friday and
Saturday. Main area of precip expected to pass stage right Tuesday
night with the departure of that lead front, with a few lingering
rain and snow showers expected through the remainder of the week. Of
course, given timing uncertainties and your typical change of season
complexities, all the above is subject to changes.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Persistent surface ridging...strong subsidence and dry air thru
the column will maintain clear skies and solid VFR conditions at
all Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites tonight thru Sunday. Surface
winds will remain from the E/NE at around 10 kts...with some
higher gusts expected early this evening and again Sunday


Issued at 326 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Northeasterly winds today will slowly veer easterly and
southeasterly tonight and Sunday. Some gustiness will remain and
result in marginal small craft advisory winds/waves...particularly
on the Lake Huron nearshore waters. Winds will diminish later
Sunday into Monday and ongoing headlines will likely be allowed
to expire.

Otherwise...quiet weather will persist through Monday.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347>349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ345.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ342.


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