896
FXUS63 KAPX 101844
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
244 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers likely tonight and Saturday.

- Patchy frost possible Sunday morning.

- Showers with possible embedded thunderstorms later Sunday
  into Sunday night.

- Quiet weather continues for the first half of next week.
  Watching for more showers and storms to return later next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Diurnally driven clouds and possible isolated showers/sprinkles
should fade away this afternoon and early evening. This may
present a small window to get a peak of the possible northern
lights. Clouds then increase and thicken from late evening into
the overnight hours. Rain showers are then likely to spread in
from west to east overnight and continue into Saturday as low
pressure crosses the region. Lows tonight mainly in the 40s.
Lowered max temperatures some for Saturday due to guidance
lingering showers and clouds through much of the day. Highs
generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Chaotic split mid-level flow across north America will keep weather
active at times for the Great Lakes region. Northern branch embedded
disturbances continue to push precipitation to the region along with
temperatures around climatological average.

A shortwave ridge currently centered over the Upper midwest will
begin to build at the start of the long term period. Troughing to
the north will drag a weak frontal boundary across the state Sunday
night before conditions turn drier aided by a zonal midlevel pattern
through Wednesday. Attention turns towards long range guidance of a
potential stronger system to deepen lee of the Canadian Rockies to
progress to the central CONUS returning stronger chances of more
impactful weather to the CWA.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Patchy frost potential Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms
return this Sunday: Cloudy cover is expected to dissipate at the
start of the forecast period allowing for temperatures to rapidly
drop to the mid 30s for interior locations. Some patchy frost is
expected but no widespread event is expected. Troughing along the
southern shore of Hudson Bay will drag a weak cold front across the
CWA this Sunday evening but a few showers could start as early as
Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will
be expected to pass in the evening, but only a general tenth or so
of QPF will come from showers.

-Quiet weather continues for the first half of next week. Watching
for more showers and storms return later next week: A midlevel zonal
flow pattern begins to set up over the Great Lakes region beginning
this Monday allowing for moisture to bifurcate around the region.
Weather will remain quiet for the most part Monday through Thursday
ahead of low pressure currently over the Gulf of Alaska that makes
its way towards the central CONUS by Friday. To early to message
details, but we will continue to monitor this feature and its
potential impacts as we head closer to mid May. Precipitation-free
chances begin to push into the region by Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Low pressure will move across the region later tonight into
Saturday likely bringing rain showers to the region. Vsbys are
expected to remain vfr. Cigs will gradually lower to mvfr
tonight, with some spots possibly falling to ifr. Winds are
expected to be variable through early tonight then become
northerly and perhaps gusty toward the end of the taf period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...AJS