Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 221159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
659 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A small disturbance within northwest flow will potentially give us
some sprinkles in the northeast third of the CWA. Soundings
suggest only sprinkles with warm air advection and strong
inversion aloft. By 15Z, this disturbance should be east of our
area with decreasing sky cover behind the perturbation expected.

Also, I took fog out of the forecast this morning as little
evidence exists that any will form of any significance, and there
is little if any support among short-term models.

As the upper level amplified trough approaches today, temperatures
should be considerably warmer than yesterday. I expect a maximum
temperature aloft to increase to the 5-8 C range by 00Z Friday.

I expect a rather mild night tonight as lows will be near 40 to
the 40s thanks to continued warm air advection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

I expect some potential drizzle/showers by early Friday morning. A
significant inversion in the lowest levels with a pronounced dry
layer lends more to drizzle. It looks clearly warm enough to not
have to worry about freezing drizzle.

Still enough instability for afternoon/evening thunder in roughly
the southern two-thirds of the CWA. There may even by enough
instability for an isolated strong to severe storm Friday evening
in our far southeast, with perhaps some large hail and gusty wind,
but this looks like a long shot for now.

The pattern looks rather unsettled through near mid-week next
week, but seasonably mild.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

LLWS will be an issue early this morning. VFR conditions are
expected as an upper level ridge approaches and subsidence behind
a weak mid-level perturbation will occur today.




SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.