Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 231126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
626 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions will persist for the next 24 hours. Light winds
will eventually organize to the southeast by evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

Early morning water vapor imagery shows our previous weather maker
edging slowly eastward into the Deep South while our next system of
interest is churning through the northern Rockies. The latter
shortwave is progged to elongate toward the northeast while
gradually sinking southeastward. As it does so it will propel a cold
front southward down the High Plains and into the South Plains
tomorrow afternoon. A transition to return flow later today and
into tonight should eventually advect modest low-level moisture
northward into the region, with lower to middle 50 degree dewpoint
air expected to be in place in advance of the front across the
central and eastern zones by Tuesday afternoon. Strong daytime
heating, weakening CIN and confluence along the advancing front
should be enough to initiate isolated to scattered convection late
Tuesday afternoon. At this point, NWP is in good agreement that
the front should roughly bisect the CWA from southwest to
northeast at peak heating, with storm development most favored
near and east of Lubbock. Surface based CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and
0-6 km shear of 35-40 knots could support some updraft
organization (and hail threat) while the warm and deeply mixed
boundary layer will also favor downburst wind potential. Hence,
we will add a severe mention to the HWO for Tuesday afternoon and
evening. The best storm threat will quickly shift south and
eastward with the front Tuesday evening, but increased large scale
ascent with the approaching upper trough along with lift over the
frontal boundary may provide more widespread light showers for
much of the FA Tuesday night into early Wednesday before the
forcing shifts off to the east. Not to be forgotten, a tight post-
frontal pressure gradient will push northerly winds toward or
above advisory levels for a period on the Caprock Tuesday evening.

Before all of the possible excitement tomorrow, we will see a very
pleasant day today with light winds returning to a southerly
component this afternoon. Temperatures should top out close to
average, in the middle and upper 70s. A little convection will
likely develop over the Sangres, and under northwest flow aloft this
activity may make a run this way during the evening, but it will
likely perish before reaching the southern Texas Panhandle. Tomorrow
will bring even warmer temperatures across the southern and eastern
zones, but slightly cooler readings across the northwest where
the front will move through earlier in the day.

Wednesday will be much cooler, mostly in the lower to middle 60s, as
clouds won`t clear until the second half of the day. A quick return
to near average conditions will follow Thursday before the next
FROPA and upper trough (in some form or another) moves through late
in the day. There won`t be much moisture to work with for this
front/trough, but there could be just enough elevated moisture to
squeeze out a few light showers/sprinkles Thursday evening.
Progressive upper ridging downstream of western troughing should
then provide seasonably warm temperatures next weekend. A weak
subtropical disturbance attempting to cut under the ridge could
bring increased upper moisture and perhaps even a low shower risk,
though at this point the better rain chances look like they will
remain to our west through the weekend.




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