Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 220756
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
356 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture will continue over the area into mid week
with high pressure centered offshore. A cold front will move
through the area late Wednesday night followed by high pressure
building in from the north Thursday. The high will move
offshore Friday with a Bermuda high pattern returning for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...High pressure centered over the western
Atlantic with broad low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will
continue to bring deep moist southerly flow across the area
today with PW values around 1.5-1.8". A frontal boundary remains
stalled near the highway 64/264 corridor early this morning but
is expected to lift north of the area around 12z. Will continue
to see areas of low stratus and fog north of the boundary this
morning but expect conditions to improve after the front lifts
to the north. Could also see patchy fog to the south of the
during the pre-dawn hours with little to no dewpoint depression
and light/calm winds.

With a moist and unstable airmass remaining in place, expect
isolated to scattered thunderstorms again this afternoon, but
not quite the coverage as yesterday. Highest chances will be
across the northern counties closer to the surface boundary just
north of the area and subtle shortwave energy lifting into
southeast VA and northeast NC, but could see isolated storms
develop along the sea breeze as well. With limited shear and
upper level forcing not expecting storms to become severe but
with high PW values and slow storm motions we could see locally
heavy rainfall. Highs today expected in the mid 80s inland to
upper 70s/lower 80s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Shower and thunderstorm activity expected
to dissipate early in the evening with loss of surface heating
with dry conditions much of the overnight, however will see
height falls after midnight as stronger northern stream
shortwave energy and sfc cold front approach from the northwest
and could see showers and thunderstorms moving into northwest
sections late. SW wind will continue to bring mild conditions
overnight with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...Little change in the overall forecast
for the extended period. Wednesday looks quite wet with a
pattern flip to a somewhat drier scenario Thursday and Friday.
Moisture increases again Saturday with another round of wet
weather possible for early next week.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...The combination of an oncoming
back door cold front and deeper moisture returning as
precipitable water values surge to 2 inches, well above the
climatological normal, will lead to a higher chance of showers
and thunderstorms for Wednesday. The better chance of heavier
precipitation and stronger storms will be near the better upper
support over the northern portions of the CWA. SPC has our far
northern counties in a Marginal threat of severe weather for
Wednesday and will have likely PoPs north to high chance south.
Gusty winds and marginally severe hail will be possible with the
stronger storms over northern areas Wednesday. The cold front
is forecast to cross the CWA between 06z and 12Z Thursday
morning. This movement has been consistent for several model
cycles now. Highs for Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s thanks to increased cloud cover, with lows Wednesday
night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday through Saturday...Somewhat drier and slightly cooler
weather will prevail Thursday and Friday. With the front sagging
over the far southern CWA Thursday morning, will keep a decent
chance of showers and thunderstorms for this area early in the
day. By afternoon, drier air will be the rule as dewpoints drop
into the low/mid 60s, which will be followed by low temperatures
into the low/mid 60s inland and around 70 Outer Banks for Friday
morning. Good model consensus for a no PoP forecast for Friday
as high pressure shunts all of the precipitation to the south of
our CWA. Winds veer to S/SW by Saturday as high pressure
strengthens offshore and moisture starts to return to the south
due to an upper low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures
warm back to the mid 80s Saturday with a better chance of rain.

Sunday and Monday...Deep moisture between low pressure along
the central to western Gulf coast and strong high pressure
anchored offshore will lead to increasing deep moisture for
Sunday into early next week. Will continue forecast of higher
PoPs and increasing SE/S winds Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Tuesday...A frontal boundary continues across
northern rtes early this morning but is expected to lift north
of the area around daybreak. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions
persist to the north of this boundary, but with light winds and
saturated sfc conditions to the south, expect patchy fog/stratus
here early this morning as well. Conditions should improve by
13-14z with pred VFR conditions late morning through the evening
hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected across the
area this afternoon, mainly northern sections and along the sea
breeze may bring brief reductions in cigs/vsbys. Moist SW flow
continues tonight and could see MVFR/IFR stratus develop after
midnight.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 350 AM Tuesday...Widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms will lead to frequent periods of sub-VFR
conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night. A somewhat drier
airmass arrives Thursday and Friday behind a back door coldfront
with VFR conditions likely. Increased moisture and a return to
shower and thunderstorm activity will lead to a few periods of
sub-VFR conditions for Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...A weak frontal boundary across the northern
waters will slowly lift north of the area this morning. Areas
of stratus/fog continue north of this boundary early this
morning with observations around KDH showing vsbys dropping to
1/2 mile at times and have issued a dense fog advisory for the
waters north of Oregon Inlet and Albemarle Sound. Expect
conditions to improve as this boundary lifts north around
daybreak.

Expect SW winds around 15 kt or less with seas 2-4 ft through
mid-day today. Winds will to increase to 10-20 kt this
afternoon through tonight as gradients tighten with a
strengthening thermal trough inland as well as a cold front
approaching from the west. Seas will build to 3-4 ft with up to
5 ft possible across the outer waters late.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 355 AM Tuesday...As a cold front approaches the area
Wednesday into Wednesday night, SW winds of 15-20 knots are
expected on the Pamlico Sound and Coastal waters with 10-15
knots elsewhere. The front should pass across the CWA between
06z and 12z Thursday with winds becoming N/NE at generally 10-15
knots with a few gusts to 20 knots possible. Seas build to 3-5
feet Wednesday and Wednesday night, but drop back to 2-4 feet
for Thursday into Saturday. As high pressure strengthens
offshore, winds veer to SE by Friday and become S/SW at 10-15
knots with a few higher gusts by Saturday. No Small Craft
Advisories are anticipated for the extended period at this time.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ130-150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK



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