Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 261814
SPC MCD 261813

Mesoscale Discussion 0290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Areas affected...Southwestern into portions of central Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261813Z - 261945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Probabilities appear fairly low, but the evolution of an
isolated severe storm or two may not be out of the question across
parts of southwestern Georgia, perhaps as far north as the Macon
area, through the 3-5 PM EDT time frame.

DISCUSSION...As a fairly vigorous short wave impulse maintains an
eastward progression through portions of the central Gulf Coast
states, a few thunderstorms have recently initiated across far
southeastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia.  This appears on the
southernmost periphery of stronger mid-level forcing for ascent,
where the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that a seasonably modest
influx of boundary layer moisture off the Gulf of Mexico is
supporting weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg.

Generally south of the mid-level cold core of the system, forecast
soundings indicate that capping mid/upper-level layers may remain
problematic to sustained vigorous thunderstorm activity.  However, a
window of opportunity may still exist for an isolated intensifying
storm or two across parts of southwestern into central Georgia
through about the 20-21Z time frame, before the mid-level wave
begins to pivot northeastward toward the southern Appalachians.  If
this occurs, it will do so in a strongly sheared environment (near a
50-60+ kt 500 jet) capable of supporting supercell structures and at
least some severe weather potential before encountering a more
stable low-level environment across central Georgia.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/26/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32438432 32608359 31338385 30858495 31258519 32438432 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.