712
ACUS11 KWNS 221713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221712
TXZ000-OKZ000-221915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Areas affected...Southwest TX...Central/North-Central TX...Northeast
TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 221712Z - 221915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase quickly over
the next hour or so. Environmental conditions support severe
thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including very large
hail up to 3-4" in diameter. One or more watches may be needed
across this area to address the anticipated severe potential.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from just
north of GYI in Grayson county southwestward to about 50 miles north
of ABI and then more east-southeastward into the Permian Basin. Weak
surface troughing precedes the cold front, demarcated by a wind
shift from southerly south of the boundary to northerly north of it.
This troughing was likely influential in the recent intensification
of the cells in north-central TX.

General expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to increase as
these boundaries continue southward/southeastward throughout the
day. The airmass from southwest TX into north-central/central and
northeast TX is characterized by ample low-level moisture and very
strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is over 3000
J/kg for this entire region. Vertical shear is quite strong too,
with effective bulk shear values in the 50 to 60 kt. Some minimal
convective inhibition likely remains, but this should erode quickly
over the next hour or so, with robust thunderstorm development
anticipated along and ahead of these boundaries. An initially more
cellular mode should favor very large hail up to 3-4" in diameter as
the primary risk. Given that discrete supercells are possible
initially, some tornado potential exists as well. Over time,
interactions between these storms and their cold pools should result
in upscale growth into one or more convective line. Given the
overall environment, these convective lines could produce severe
gusts. One or more watches may be needed across this area to address
the anticipated severe potential.

..Mosier/Hart.. 05/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32190117 33079892 33319812 33739637 32959514 31349718
            30910140 32190117