481
ACUS11 KWNS 111817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111817
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-111945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Areas affected...The Coastal Carolinas into southeast Virginia and
southeast Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 111817Z - 111945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will increase
this afternoon across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia.

DISCUSSION...A weakly unstable environment (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) has
spread across much of the eastern Carolinas and into far southeast
Virginia where mid to upper 60s dewpoints are present. Strong ascent
within strengthening tropospheric flow has kept widespread
precipitation across much of the warm sector which has limited
instability. Some weak line segments/bowing segments have developed
across central North Carolina into southeast Virginia, but it has
remained mostly sub-severe due to the weak instability. Additional
line segments are trying to develop along the synoptic front, but
are embedded within moderate rainfall with minimal instability at
this time. As the synoptic front sharpens and strengthens more
through the afternoon and starts to accelerate east, expect
additional strengthening, perhaps with the front catching up
to/combining with the ongoing line segments across central North
Carolina. If/when this occurs is when the primary damaging
wind/isolated tornado threat is expected this afternoon given the
very strong tropospheric flow (65 knots at 1km and over 100 knots at
7km per RAX VWP). Trends will be monitored through the afternoon and
if a better organized, eastward accelerating convective line becomes
more apparent this afternoon, a watch may be needed.

..Bentley/Hart.. 12/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   32547986 32158040 32308070 32728072 34487967 36127832
            37457705 38267596 38337536 38257499 36977584 36497576
            36007549 35597535 35197545 35087579 34797628 34517651
            34637679 34567709 34367752 34067780 33777791 33827817
            33797854 33577885 33347905 33107915 32547986