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847
FXUS63 KARX 251727
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Quiet weather continues today with high pressure over the area. Even
despite slightly cooler air behind the frontal passage, plenty of
sunshine along with a very dry airmass over the region will allow
temps to climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

An elongated positively tilted upper trough and associated cold
front will approach on Thursday. The combination of weakening large
scale forcing as the system approaches and a continued dry
background airmass with little substantive moisture return suggests
only lower end rain chances with the front. Kept just some very low
end pops in for Thursday afternoon and evening with the
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all indicating little in the way of precip. It should
be another mild day with highs in the 60s and possibly around 70 in
some of the valley locations with 925 mb temps back up into the 10-
13C range ahead of the front. Another upper shortwave trough
dropping into the northern Great Lakes on Friday will drop a
secondary cold front through keeping a seasonable airmass in place
through the start of the weekend. Higher shower chances look to be
over eastern WI closer to the shortwave and surface low.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Upper ridging will gradually push eastward from the plains during
the weekend with southwest flow developing over the area by early
next week. A dry weekend is on tap as surface ridging occupies much
of the central US. Temps will trend upward from Saturday into Sunday
as the surface high slides south and east and return southerly flow
begins to develop. Low-level warm/moist advection will continue into
early next week with gusty southerly winds ahead of low pressure in
the lee of the Rockies. Highs should at least be up into the 70s
early next week with lows in the 50s. Although models differ on
the details, a more active pattern is expected to develop late in
the period through with increasing shower/storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. North-
northwesterly winds in the 5 to 10 kt range will become light late
this afternoon/early this evening before switching to
southwesterly overnight as high pressure moves south of the area.
A cold front will then begin to move through the area Thursday
morning, with winds at RST switching to northwesterly at 10 to 15
kts, with gusts approaching 20 kts by the end of the TAF period.
High clouds will be on the increase this evening ahead of the
front with a broken deck around 4 kft agl arriving with the cold
front, though this appears to be after 18Z for both sites. Could
even see some light rain with these clouds, but again, this
appears to be after the TAF period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A flood warning remains in effect for the Yellow River at Necedah
with minor flooding into late this week. See the latest flood
statement for more information.

Minor flooding is possible along portions of the Mississippi over
the next several days as snowmelt runoff continues to progress
through the river system. See the latest hydrologic outlooks (ESF)
for more information.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...JM