Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 221133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
633 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

For the 22/12Z TAF Issuance.


Cold front has moved through KBPT and will move through the
remainder of the terminals between 22/15-18Z. Ahead of the front
occasional showers with MVFR ceilings will continue. Behind the
front, IFR to MVFR ceilings will prevail until between 22/18-20Z
when blustery northwest winds bring in drier air to scatter out
the low clouds. These VFR conditions will then persist for the
remainder of the TAF package. The gusty northwest winds will
diminish after sunset.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/


As of 4 AM, surface observations indicate a cold front located
just to the northwest of the CWA extending through the Piney
Woods of east Texas. Ahead of the front, showers and a few
thunderstorms are ongoing across the CWA. The showers and
thunderstorms are expected to come to end by early this afternoon
as the cold front moves to the southeast. Skies will then clear
through the afternoon as high pressure builds builds into the
region behind the cold front.

The rest of the forecast period looks relatively quiet as the CWA
will be upstream of a long wave trough axis centered over the
southeastern CONUS. Upper level subsidence will contribute to dry
conditions and near normal temperatures through the middle of next
week. Two reinforcing shortwave troughs and associated surface
fronts are forecast to move over the region late Wednesday into
Thursday and then again on Friday. However, given the prolonged
period of offshore flow early in the week and a lack of any
substantial return flow ahead of these systems, currently the most
pessimistic chances for precipitation will only be around
20%-30%. The reinforced area of high pressure will remain over the
region next weekend resulting in continued dry conditions and
normal to slightly below normal temperatures.


Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end by this afternoon as
a cold front exits the coastal waters. Northwest winds will
develop behind the front and could gust to around 20 knots.
Therefore, have a small craft should exercise caution headline for
the coastal waters through this evening. Offshore flow is expected
to continue through next week as high pressure and a reinforcing
cold front move over the coastal waters.


AEX  72  53  73  55 /  50   0   0   0
LCH  74  55  76  57 /  30   0   0   0
LFT  77  55  75  57 /  90   0   0   0
BPT  73  53  77  56 /   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ450-452-



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