827
FXUS64 KLCH 032032
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
332 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Area radar this afternoon shows scattered showers and
thunderstorms spreading across the region from the west. Most of
today`s precip has fallen across SE TX and SW LA, with area
mesonet stations showing around 0.75-2.00" of rain has fallen
in these regions. CAMs have largely handled today`s system poorly
however, the HRRR seems to have gotten a better handle on it over
the last couple of runs and continues to show most of this
activity ending between 6 and 8 PM this evening. Overnight, dry
weather is expected along with another round of patchy fog,
especially across those areas that saw a good bit of rain today.

Moving into the weekend, rain chances continue. Tomorrow, another
shortwave is expected to pass overhead and initialize scattered
showers by the late morning hours. POPs tomorrow are only in the
20-40% range, with better chances north of I-10, and overall
coverage should be much less than the last couple of days. Rain
chances then ramp up again for the second half of the weekend as a
second, more robust, shortwave slides overhead and passes a bit
further to the south that Saturday`s shortwave. This may bring a
similar set up to today`s convection, with elevated rain chances
in the 40-60% range on tap area-wide. Fortunately, no severe
weather is anticipated this weekend however, we will have to keep
an eye on the flooding risk as much of the forecast area has
already received significant rainfall over the last couple of
days.

Temperature wise, we will see near seasonal daytime highs over the
weekend, warming into the low to mid 80s area-wide both days.
Overnight, lows will continue to fall into the upper 60s inland
and low to mid 70s along and south of I-10.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

As we head into the work week small rain chances continue for
Monday followed by a reprieve from the wet weather through the
mid-week. POPs on Monday are only around 15-30% at best, with
mainly isolated afternoon activity anticipated. Tuesday through
Thursday a drier pattern is expected as a weak midlevel ridge
builds over the Gulf Coast and offers a bit of drier air aloft to
keep showers at bay. Finally by Friday we may see a return of
shower activity as some long range models are now pointing to a
weak frontal passage. This is still a ways out however, and
changes to the progression of this front are likely.

Temperature wise next week will bring a gradual warming trend
with highs on Mon in the mid 80s warming into the mid to upper 80s
on Tuesday and into the upper 80s to lower 90s from Wednesday and
beyond. Overnight, lows in the low to mid 70s can be expected.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening, accompanied by occasional gusty winds and mainly VFR
ceilings. Overall this activity has lessened in coverage/intensity
over the last couple of hours therefore impacts should be fairly
minimal this afternoon. Tonight, rain comes to an end however, fog
will become an issue after midnight and beyond. All terminals
will have the potential to see fog, which will also be accompanied
by MVFR/IFR ceilings. Thereafter, fog will start to burn off
while our next round of convection is expected to spread into the
region from the west. This activity should be much less in
coverage/intensity than the last couple of days.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into this
evening across the coastal waters and coastal lakes/bays. In
addition, moderate onshore flow will also persist, and small
craft should continue to exercise caution through tonight. Tonight,
rain will end however, fog is expected to develop closer to
sunrise especially along and near the coastline. Light onshore
flow and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming
week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  85  67  82 /  10  40  20  60
LCH  69  83  70  83 /  10  30  10  40
LFT  70  83  71  85 /  10  20  10  30
BPT  71  83  72  83 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>032-141.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17