Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 222304 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
604 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...



VFR conditions are expected to be dominant for most sites through
this TAF period. SRLY winds will be seen...increasing for Fri
afternoon with gusts nearing 20 kts. Some MVFR CIGs may be seen
for the NRN terminals Fri afternoon as well. Widespread precip
looks to hold off until beyond this TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 304 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday

Elongated area of surface high pressure in place today just east of
the state helping to provide what many would consider to be a fine
early Spring day. Afternoon temperatures are near to slightly above
normal for much of the area as well.

Through the overnight hours and into the day on Friday, high
pressure at the surface will drift east and moisture will increase
across the region. The flow aloft will remain out of the northwest
and a weak disturbance will approach the area. Lift associated with
this feature could allow some light rain to develop across northern
portions of the forecast area. Additionally, as a surface low
develops across the TX/OK panhandles the pressure gradient will be
enhanced over Arkansas. Winds Friday afternoon will be out of the
south at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph at times.

By Saturday morning, the developing low will have made its way east
toward southern Missouri with a cold front trialing to the
southwest. Rain will be a bit more widespread during the day
Saturday, but rainfall amounts will remain light with amounts
generally less than a tenth of an inch.

Even with widespread cloud cover and rain chances in place,
significant warming will be seen through the short term with highs
in the 70s to near 80 degrees by Saturday.

LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday

The extended period will be unsettled to say the least. The pattern
is very much like the one that finished February. More specifically,
a storm system will wobble toward Arkansas from the southwest, and
will encounter high pressure over the southeast United States.
Between these features, deep southerly flow will set up, and copious
moisture will surround a front slowly heading this way from the

Given the scenario, wet weather is in the forecast, especially in
the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Several inches of rain will
be possible, it is just too early to pinpoint where the heaviest
rain will fall and exactly how much.

Things have changed since late February. Drought conditions are
gone, and there is a lot more ground water. Rivers have gone from
barely moving to overflowing. Minor flooding continues on portions
of the Cache, Ouachita, and lower White Rivers. So, with a heavy
rain event looming, flooding will be more likely now than a month

Since we are still several days out, the message is to prepare for
heavy/excessive rain and possible flash flooding and additional
river flooding. Moving ahead, the message will be refined and more
specific as rainfall amounts and timing are nailed down.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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