Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 250159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
959 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Low pressure will move south of the area tonight. High pressure
will build in from the north late Sunday through early next
week as deepening low pressure moves well offshore.


As of 950 PM Saturday...Light rain continues over most of the
northern two-thirds of our CWA with less rainfall occurring in
the northeast areas where the airmass is still not saturated.
Temperatures in the MHX CWA currently in the low to mid 40s at
late evening. With colder temperatures in place, snow is
actually occurring from the Raleigh area west, but think any
precipitation in our northern zones will be a rain/snow mix, as
ground and boundary layer temperatures are sufficiently warm to
preclude any type of accumulation, even in fairly heavy
precipitation, as surface temperatures should remain above
freezing. Will certainly need to monitor this for the next few
hours however.


As of 330 PM Sat... Another sfc low develops off the Carolinas and
will strengthen as it encounters good baroclinicity along the
Gulf Stream, while inland high pressure extends down from the
Quebec, Canada. Pressure gradient will tighten as a
result...with an increase of NE winds throughout Sunday. Expect
NE 20-25 mph inland and 20-35 mph along the coast with higher
gusts. At this time Wind Advisory is not need for the Outer
Banks, but will still need to monitor. Rain will gradually
diminish during the morning and expect most of the precip to be
offshore by the afternoon. It will remain cloudy throughout much
of the day as there it trapped moisture at the low levels.
Clouds will gradually diminish Sunday night. Expect highs in the
mid to upper 40s across the area.


As of 330 AM Saturday...

Sunday night through Thursday...A blocking pattern develops
early to mid week as the upper trough lifts out early next week
and becomes a vertically stacked low across the NW Atlantic
while longwave ridging builds along the eastern seaboard. The
upper ridge will maintain dry conditions while sfc high pressure
continued to wedge in from the north keeping cool temps to the
area Monday into Tuesday. The high weakens as we move into mid-
week with the airmass gradually modifying, however how quickly
it modifies will depend on the position and track of the cut-off
low off the coast. Models beginning to come into better
agreement, especially with high pressure pushing off the coast
Wednesday with return flow bringing a more substantial warm up.
Highs Monday expected in the mid to upper 50s inland to upper
40s OBX and a few degrees warmer Tuesday as winds diminish,
especially away from the coast where highs in the upper 50s to
around 60 expected however the OBX will likely continue to see
highs in the upper 40s. Lows expected in the 30s inland to mid
40s coast both Monday and Tuesday night. Temps warm into the
mid/upper 60s inland and mid 50s OBX Wednesday with low/mid 70s
inland to mid 60s OBX Thursday with lows in the mid 40s to
around 50.

Friday...The next frontal system approaches the area late in
the week bringing rain chances Friday into Friday night. There
are some timing differences among the models with the frontal
passage but generally in the Friday afternoon or evening time
frame with rain chances decreasing after midnight. It is looking
like a high shear/low CAPE environment and cannot rule out
isolated tstms but models not in best agreement with degree of
instability and will just mention showers at this time.
Continued warm with highs in the 60s coast to mid 70s inland.


Short Term /through 00Z Monday/...
As of 710 PM Saturday...IFR conditions have arrived at KPGV, but
continue in the VFR range elsewhere at early evening. As
strengthening low pressure moves south of the area overnight,
precipitation coverage and intensity should increase with
ceilings deteriorating to IFR after midnight. MVFR conditions
return soon after sunrise from north to south, and VFR
conditions should return for all by mid afternoon Sunday.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...The low pressure area pulls away from
the area Sunday but lingering low level moisture may continue to
bring sub-VFR conditions into Sunday. Expect pred VFR Sunday
night through Wednesday with high pressure across the area.


Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 10 PM Saturday...All winds along the coast and sounds have
an easterly component now as strong surface low moves from
Tennessee to our south overnight and offshore. Wind speeds will
increase to near 20 kts over southern waters after midnight as
the low pressure system advances. Seas will increase from 3-4
feet currently, building 3-5 ft prior to daybreak over the
central to southern waters.

Sunday...As the low pressure systems strengthens off the NC
coast, and sfc high pressure inland will result in an increase
of NE winds 25-35 kts Sunday afternoon. Therefore Gale Warnings
will be in effect from Duck to Surf City and Pamlico Sound.
Small Craft Advisory will also be in effect for Albemarle
Sound/Alligator Rvr and inland rivers. Seas are expected to
build 4-6 ft by early afternoon and then reaching to 7-9 ft by
Sunday evening.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...Low pressure low deepens off the coast as
it moves away from the area Sunday with NE winds increasing to
25-35 kt Sunday afternoon through Monday. Meso models remain on
the stronger side of the models with a period of Gale Force
winds across the coastal waters and perhaps the Pamlico Sound
and have issued a Gale Watch for these areas. Seas build quickly
Sunday as low pressure deepens off the coast, reaching around
7-10 ft north and 5-9 ft south late Sunday into Monday.

The low pressure system stalls across the NW Atlantic as we move
into mid week. Models coming into better agreement with the
track of the low into Wednesday and especially with high
pressure pushing off the coast sometime Wednesday. N/NE winds
gradually diminish Monday night through Tuesday, then veer to
S/SW sometime Wednesday. The low will continue to bring large
swells across the coastal waters into mid-week and seas will
potentially be around 8-12 ft or higher across the northern
waters and 4-8 ft southern waters.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     Gale Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-
     Gale Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150.



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