Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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982
FXUS63 KMPX 250355 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1055 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The forecast concern near term is timing and areal coverage of any
convection.

Latest mesoscale analysis shows about 1000-2000 J/kg MLcape over
the cwa, with the axis pointed to the southwest. Convective
temperature(mid 80s) has been reached and we have widely
scattered/isolated convection firing off to the southwest and
northeast, Main moist axis remains over MN so expect convective
potential to remain overnight. Will continue the higher end
chance PoPs over the CWA, but dont feel comfortable of
highlighting a large area of likely PoPs at this time. Certainly
looks like the better potential will develop later
tonight/overnight with the incoming upper trough and surface
boundary. With limited deep layer shear, severe potential should
remain minimal - multicell clusters possible producing some hail
and gusty winds mainly this evening.

Said boundary is rather weak and will advance into eastern MN
Friday morning. Any significant redevelopment should remain
mainly east of I35 across eastern MN and into west central WI Late
Friday morning and afternoon. Still looking for warm and humid
conditions to the east, becoming a less humid over the west with
weak fropa.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The remainder of the weekend looks to be hot with highs expected
to warm through the lower and middle 90s both days. The warmest
looks to be Sunday with some potential upper 90s to the
southwest. We should see plenty of sunshine with both days with
ridging/higher heights over the area. Heat indices max out in the
mid 90s Sunday, providing a real beginning to summer weather. The
models diverge somewhat on any extent of moisture return into
early next week. Timing of the next incoming trough looks to be
affecting the area later Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures
will cool back into the 80s with humidity/dewpoints on the rise.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Showers and some thunderstorms will persist over southeastern MN
and western WI through about 07-08Z. Mostly dry conditions are
forecast for the rest of the night with just some isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible. Thunderstorm coverage may increase
Friday afternoon along a boundary, but tough to say when they will
fire. Therefore, all TAF locations may see storms nearby but
coverage is expected to be low enough to preclude TS mention in
this set of TAFs.

KMSP...Should be dry through the period. Cannot rule out more
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, but odds of the terminal being
impacted appear low at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind light/variable winds.
MON...VFR. Slight chc TSRA. Wind S 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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