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000
FXUS64 KFWD 232335
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
635 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Evening/

A dryline to the west and a stalling front along the Red River
will both provide focus for isolated thunderstorms over the next
36 hours. The dryline storms which developed over the past few
hours will remain primarily west of the region, but a few may
reach our far western zones before dissipating. Young and Stephens
Counties are hence within the eastern bounds of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 132, which is in effect until 10PM. Large hail
and damaging winds would both be possible for any storm that
reaches Breckenridge, Graham and surrounding areas. A strong cap
and strengthening ridge aloft will likely shut off convection for
areas farther east.

The front will become the focus for development overnight into
Wednesday when a weak disturbance rounds the northern flank of the
ridge aloft. Most of the convection will be elevated north of the
surface front, keeping the majority of the overnight/Wednesday
activity in Oklahoma. The northern zones may still experience the
southern-most of these showers and storms, and will thus maintain
chance to slight chance POPs for areas generally along and north
of Highway 380 starting tonight. A few of these storms could be
strong with hail and gusty winds.

Otherwise, a warming trend will continue along with increasing
humidity as south winds draw Gulf moisture north through the
region. Winds, low clouds and dewpoints in the 60s will keep
tonight much warmer than previous nights, with lows in the 60s
expected area-wide. Tomorrow`s highs may be a touch warmer,
ranging from the upper 70s in the northeast to the lower and
middle 80s out west.


30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

The latter half of week through the weekend will be very warm,
humid and unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms.

A strong low level warm air advection pattern will remain in place
Thursday ahead of a deep upper trough over the Desert Southwest.
Subtle shortwave energy emerging out of the base of the main
trough may spark a few showers and thunderstorms across the
northwest and northern zones through the day Thursday while the
remainder of the forecast area will stay capped and rain-free. The
only exception will be a few warm air advection sprinkles or
light showers. Storm chances will increase Thursday night once the
upper trough lifts towards the Central Plains, dragging a dryline
and weak front into the western CWA. Some storms may become
strong to severe, especially across the western zones where shear
and instability will be the most favorable. Storms will progress
eastward across the region Friday with the passing trough axis.
There is a medium chance for strong to severe storms on Friday,
especially east of the I-35 corridor during the afternoon where
the air will be the most unstable. There will be a lull in
precipitation Friday night, but another upper low will move
quickly on heels of the departing system, bringing rain/storm
chances to the region just in time for the weekend. This second
system will follow a similar track as the late week system, with
storm chances increasing from west to east Saturday and decreasing
in similar fashion on Sunday with the arrival of a weak cold
front. Some strong to severe storms will be possible given the
projected shear and instability. The cold front will likely stall
across the CWA Sunday night through Monday, warranting at least
some low PoPs. Rain chances will temporarily end or decrease
significantly Tuesday with brief ridging aloft, but the active
split flow pattern will likely persist through the end of April.
The progressive nature of these system should keep the overall
flood threat low, but recent heavy rainfall and some rivers
currently near flood stage could result in some localized
flooding issues.

Temperatures Thursday through Tuesday will be near or slightly
above seasonal normals with highs ranging from the upper 70s to
middle 80s. Lows will stay generally in the 60s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Low clouds have lifted to VFR and will likely dissipate around
sunset. MVFR ceilings will return overnight as Gulf moisture
surges north. Conditions may occasionally drop into IFR Wednesday
morning, so will include a TEMPO group for IFR ceilings from
13-16Z. Conditions will improve to VFR early Wednesday afternoon.
South winds will not be as strong on Wednesday, likely remaining
10-15kt.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  81  68  81  68 /  10  10  20  10  40
Waco                66  81  68  81  70 /   5   5   5   5  20
Paris               62  77  64  79  67 /   5  50  30  30  30
Denton              63  81  66  80  66 /  10  20  20  10  50
McKinney            64  80  67  79  68 /  10  20  20  10  40
Dallas              66  82  69  82  69 /  10  10  10  10  30
Terrell             64  80  65  80  68 /   5  20  10  10  20
Corsicana           66  82  67  82  70 /   5   5   5   5  10
Temple              65  81  66  82  69 /   5   5   0   5  20
Mineral Wells       63  82  67  83  66 /  10   5  20  10  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$