387
FXUS64 KFWD 081910
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
210 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 143 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/
/Through Thursday night/

An active afternoon and evening is in store for portions of North
and Central Texas as scattered storms are expected to develop
ahead and along a dryline/cold front. At 1 pm, surface analysis
show the cold front just to our northwest near Wichita Falls and
the dryline ahead of the front farther east and southwest. These
should continue to move eastward through the evening as the
associated shortwave moves across the southern Plains. The
combination of both boundaries and efficient surface heating
should eventually break the cap resulting in the development of
scattered storms. We are monitoring two areas for convective
initialization over the next 2-4 hours. First: There is a 20%
chance of isolated storms across western Central TX, closer to the
dryline. Second: areas across the northeast closer to the cold
front/dryline intersection should see storms develop around 5-6
pm. Latest high-res models are in fairly good agreement that
storms will develop south like a zipper along the boundary through
the evening. Areas generally near/east of I-35W and north of I-20
still have the best chance to see storms and severe weather. Given
a highly unstable environment with steep lapse rates and 70s
dewpoints (resulting in 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE), very large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. There is a
potential for the hail to exceed 3 inches in diameter in some
areas. While the tornado threat is lower over our area due to
slightly weaker low-level shear and veered flow, boundaries can
interact with each other and increase this threat. Most of the
activity should be east and outside of our area between midnight
and 2 am, but cloudy and patchy fog conditions are anticipated for
areas south of I-20 as the front becomes nearly stationary.

Thursday`s storm chances will be highly dependent on where the
surface boundary settles overnight. However, most of the high-res
guidance is showing the potential for scattered storms pretty much
anywhere across North and Central Texas in the afternoon and
evening. Due to uncertainty on exactly when and where storms will
develop, PoPs have been capped to 30-40%. Like today, ingredients
will be present for severe storms. Furthermore, forecast
instability appears to be even higher which may increase the
coverage and threat for very large hail and damaging winds.
Forecast details will continue to be adjusted as new data arrives.

Otherwise, a very warm afternoon is expected today with many
locations reaching low/mid 90s. For tomorrow, the clouds and rain
may keep daytime highs ranging from the upper 70s and low 80s in
North Texas and up to upper 80s in Central Texas.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday and Beyond/

As surface high pressure settles over North and Central Texas
behind the Thursday cold front, drier and cooler air will usher in
a pleasant start to the weekend. Expect afternoon highs in the 70s
to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s both
Friday and Saturday. As the surface ridge shifts east toward the
SE CONUS Gulf Coast, east-northeasterly winds will veer more
southeasterly by the latter half of the weekend beginning a period
of gradual moisture return. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms may return to our western Central Texas and Big
Country counties as soon as late Saturday evening as isentropic
ascent increases ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level low.

More widespread rain chances are expected Sunday as the
aforementioned upper low shifts toward the Southern Plains
region. With little to no surface-based instability present,
thunderstorms will likely remain elevated through Sunday and offer
primarily a small hail and heavy rain threat. The severe weather
threat may ramp up some as we shift into Monday. Medium-range
guidance suggests the upper trough will shift over Oklahoma/Kansas
helping send a northwest-southeast moving cold front through our
forecast area Monday. Upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints and
steepening mid-level lapse rates will increase instability over
the warm sector. Deep layer shear does look sufficient for
organized storm structures capable of producing hail and damaging
wind gusts, so make sure to keep up with the forecast through the
weekend as we further refine timing and location details. More so,
the threat for localized flash flooding may increase in the
Sunday-Monday timeframe with latest guidance highlighting a 30-40%
chance that already water-logged locations across portions of
Central Texas and the Brazos Valley could see an additional 2+" of
rainfall during this timeframe.

Beyond Monday, uncertainty in the evolution of the synoptic
pattern increases. However, it does appear that the subtropical
jet will remain active over the Southern Plains well into the
extended period. And with sufficient moisture remaining in place
(dependent on the Monday system), that is enough to carry at least
low end rain chances through the middle of next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 143 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Scattered storms, some severe this afternoon and
evening. Low cigs early Thursday morning with another round of
storms possible in the afternoon.

VFR cigs and breezy south-southwesterly winds will persist this
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to
the north-northeast this evening but will stay below 10 kts. The
main impact with the front will be the potential for storms
developing along the boundary this evening. Confidence has
increased that some of this activity will initiate near the I-35
corridor and impact some of the TAF sites. The main window will
be between 00-04Z this evening. A TEMPO TSRA has been introduced
to all the DFW Metroplex sites except for KAFW where
probabilities are slightly lower at this time. Coverage of storms
will remain isolated across Central TX so will keep VCTS between
23-02Z. Also, some of these storms may be severe with large hail
and damaging winds the main threat. Once the front moves south of
each location storm chances will come to an end. The next round of
MVFR/IFR cigs will arrive around 09-10Z tonight and continue
through most of the morning. There is a chance of scattered storms
after 18Z Thursday, and may impact some if not all the sites.
Forecast details/timing will continue to be adjusted.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  83  63  80  62 /  30  40  20   0   5
Waco                72  86  64  77  61 /  20  40  20   5   5
Paris               65  82  60  79  56 /  60  40  30   0   0
Denton              65  82  60  79  58 /  10  40  20   0   5
McKinney            67  82  61  79  58 /  40  40  20   0   5
Dallas              70  83  64  80  61 /  40  40  20   0   5
Terrell             69  84  62  79  58 /  50  40  30   0   5
Corsicana           73  86  65  81  61 /  20  40  30   0   5
Temple              72  87  65  79  61 /  20  40  20   5   5
Mineral Wells       66  83  61  80  58 /   5  40  20   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$