779
FXUS64 KFWD 020020
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
720 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Friday Morning/

Through the next several hours, scattered showers and storms will
continue to move northward across South and Central Texas. Flash
flooding has already been reported with a couple of the more
slow-moving storms in Limestone county. The potential for strong
to severe storms capable of hail, damaging winds, frequent
lightning, and flash flooding will persist as these storms migrate
north. Further to our west, there has been ample convective
initiation off of the dryline thanks to an incoming shortwave. As
the aforementioned shortwave continues across the state, the
discrete cells and clusters that have originated off the dryline
to our west will advance east across the region overnight. Current
CAM guidance is quite a bit less organized than compared to
yesterday, which may help to temper the severe threat somewhat.
However, the environment across North and Central Texas will
remain conducive for primarily hail and damaging winds. The
tornado threat, while non-zero, remains on the lower side as low
level SRH remains unfavorable. None the less, make sure to have
multiple ways to receive warnings overnight tonight.

The rising concern going into the overnight period is the potential
for flash flooding. While we have been able to dry out a little with
a few days of no rain, the soils are still fairly saturated.
Forecast soundings continue to show rich PWATs in excess of 1.5"
region-wide through tonight, meaning these showers and storms will
be efficient rainfall producers. Flash flooding will become an issue
especially in Central Texas where multiple rounds of activity are
expected and where the heaviest rain is expected to fall. Expected
rainfall amounts generally east of I-35 and south of I-20 through
Thursday afternoon are 1-2.5" with isolated higher amounts to
4-5".

By Thursday afternoon, any lingering convection from the
overnight/early morning activity should be generally out of the CWA.
While most will see a lull in storm activity through most of the
afternoon, isolated to scattered convection will remain possible as
an upper level jet moves in and provides some large-scale ascent.
Later in the evening, another round of dryline-induced convection is
expected out west. Guidance shows this moving mainly across North
Texas through the rest of the night into Friday morning. Strong to
severe storms will once again be possible, with hail, damaging
winds, and flooding the primary threats.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 229 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024/
/Thursday Night and Beyond/

This unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend with
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms expected through at
least late Sunday.

A cold front will sag south toward the Red River Valley Thursday
evening with a dryline extending south out of southwestern
Oklahoma toward the Texas Big Bend region. Convection initiation
will likely take place near the triple point and along the dryline
well west of our forecast area as surface dewpoints in the upper
60s/low 70s and 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE pool ahead of these
features. Initial storm mode will likely begin as discrete/semi-
discrete supercells, but transition to clusters of cells and
possibly an MCS Thursday night as this activity shifts into our
forecast area. Sporadic hail and a few strong to severe wind gusts
will be the primary hazards. This activity should be progressive
enough to preclude any widespread flooding concerns, but with the
recent rainfall and saturated soils, a localized threat for flash
flooding may develop late Thursday night into Friday morning,
especially east of I-35.

Much of the region will likely remain dry through the remainder of
Friday, although isolated to scattered convection will be possible
in the vicinity of the frontal boundary meandering near the Red
River Valley and along any lingering outflow boundaries from the
morning activity, primarily east of I-35. Additional development
may occur across portions of West Texas along a dryline late
Friday afternoon and push toward our western zones late Friday
evening/night. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts would
be possible if this activity is able to maintain into our western
zones. More widespread rainfall is expected once again Saturday as
another cold front is progged to shift into North Texas. Especially
Saturday night into Sunday morning as guidance continues to
suggest a more potent shortwave trough will move overhead this
frontal boundary. By late Sunday into early Monday, the front will
lift north, leaving our area mostly precip-free into early next
week.

Ensemble guidance continues to highlight the strengthening of a
mid-level ridge over portions of the Gulf Coast and northern
Mexico by midweek next week. Rising mid-level heights and
increasing south-southwesterly low-level flow will push
temperatures into the mid/upper 80s, possibly lower 90s, by the
middle portions of next week. With a humid airmass remaining
overhead, heat index values could rise into the mid/upper 90s,
possibly nearing 100 degrees across portions of Central Texas, by
Wednesday/Thursday of next week. Summer is coming. I hope y`all
are ready, because I`m not :(

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Scattered showers and storms continue to move across the region
into western D10 this evening, with better coverage currently
remaining across Central Texas. This will continue on and off
ahead of the main bulk of activity, currently well to the west of
the area. MVFR cigs will return around midnight at all sites.
Clusters of storms are expected to move across the sites
overnight, with direct impacts expected at D10 between 8-10Z and
ACT between 9-11Z.

Lingering showers and storms may occur for an hour or two
after the main line/cluster, but should end just near daybreak.
IFR cigs are expected at ACT along with some lowered visibility
due to mist, while DFW stays MVFR. There is a lower chance for
IFR, but guidance has backed off and probabilities are low at this
time.

Degraded flying conditions will persist through the morning,
before improving over the afternoon back to VFR at all sites.
Unfortunately, this will not sick around as MVFR cigs will return
late tomorrow night.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  82  67  83  68 /  80  60  50  20  30
Waco                68  80  69  82  68 /  90  60  30  20  20
Paris               66  77  65  80  65 /  60  90  60  40  20
Denton              66  81  64  83  67 /  80  60  50  20  30
McKinney            67  80  66  83  67 /  80  70  50  30  30
Dallas              68  83  68  83  69 /  80  70  50  30  30
Terrell             66  80  67  82  67 /  80  80  50  30  20
Corsicana           68  80  69  83  68 /  90  70  40  30  20
Temple              68  80  69  83  68 /  90  50  20  20  20
Mineral Wells       66  84  65  84  66 /  80  30  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ121-122-134-135-
142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$