Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261914
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
214 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Main highlight is the transition from dry conditions this
afternoon to an increasing threat for showers/thunderstorms
overnight. Severe weather with large hail and damaging winds
remains possible favoring western North Dakota tonight.

Mid/upper level ridge will shift from western ND this afternoon
into eastern ND by 12z Sunday. Per water vapor loop, an upper
level low circulating over north central Nevada will slowly
translate north and east and into North Dakota Tuesday/Tuesday
night. Several shortwaves will eject out from this main low until
early next week. A couple shortwaves tonight traversing from south
central Montana into western North Dakota will result in the
development of showers/thunderstorms. CAM`s show discrete cells
developing in eastern Montana this evening (00z-03z), from Miles
City to Glasgow, gradually morphing into a larger area after 03z.
There appears to be a broken line of thunderstorms embedded within
the main area that will enter western ND between 03z-06z Sunday.
SPC continues with a slight risk for severe thunderstorms with
large hail and damaging winds, especially western North Dakota.
Further expansion and strength of the convection after midnight
will be tied to the low level jet and moisture advection into
central ND. For most of tonight, cloud bases will remain high
across central ND, closer to the ridge axis; while lowering across
the far west closest to the highest instability and approaching
shortwaves and associated showers and thunderstorms mentioned
above. Thus wind and hail are the primary threats. There will be
a window of opportunity between 06z-12z Sunday that with an
increasing low level southerly jet, moisture advection and
elevated instability will lead to additional development of
showers and thunderstorms for central ND late tonight through
sunrise Sunday.

Lingering convection early morning Sunday should wane in coverage
during the day. then ramp back up Sunday evening/Sunday night,
with the approach of the next mid level low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Periods of showers and thunderstorms, some severe per SPC remain
in the forecast Sunday night through Monday night. A deeper
southerly flow/moisture ensues as the main upper low from Nevada
approaches. Instability and shear remain in place for severe
weather especially central and southern North Dakota. A brief
break in the showers/thunderstorms Wednesday as the upper low
departs. Then southwesterly flow initiates again for more chances
of showers/thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

An area of showers and thunderstorms will shift from eastern
Montana this evening and into western North Dakota between
03z-06z Sunday. KISN has the highest chance and confidence for
showers/thunderstorms, thus have gone predominate from 06z-12z
Sunday. Would anticipate some severe weather within the timeframe
mentioned above at KISN. A vcts was utilized at the remaining
terminals at this time. Cloud bases will initially be high (9kft
to 10kft), and lower with time towards 12z, still remaining vfr.
The exception wold be at KISN where a period of stratus is
forecast from 15z-18z Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS



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