Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 280313
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1013 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...No update required this evening with forecast on
track.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 558 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

DISCUSSION...
00Z Taf issuance.

AVIATION...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly confined south
of I-10 along the coastal parishes and counties. With this in
mind, will remove the VCTS from remaining terminals, with no
anticipated redevelopment expected. Less convection expected
Monday with predominately N winds ~8-10 kts expected after 15-16z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Convective activity thus far has proven to be more sparse and
less robust than yesterday, and there is nothing apparent in
observational or model data that indicates that will change very
much until it dissipates early to mid evening.

Overall, no major changes in forecast thinking this afternoon, as
rainfall chances will continue to trend downward while
temperatures go in the opposite direction. Alberto is embedded
within/entangled with a large upper trof axis over the Central
Gulf of Mexico. The storm is forecast to continue generally just
west of due north until reaching the FL panhandle tomorrow
afternoon, then continue on through AL tomorrow night and TUE.

Isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to be possible tomorrow, as the region resides within
the western periphery of the upper trof and on the far western
fringes of the storm`s circulation. Best chances lie over eastern
areas, which could see one or more convergent bands pass through,
similar to the one just entering the Atchafalaya Basin.

TUE through SAT...The upper trof is progged to weaken with the
departure of Alberto, with mid/upper ridging building overhead
atop a strengthening sub-tropical ridge. This latter feature will
maintain a moist southerly low level flow even while while deep
layer moisture declines. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to
warm into the mid/upper 90s by the end of the week and into the
weekend. Combined with high RH values, this will yield apparent
temperatures in the 100-105 range WED onward.

13

MARINE...
Northerly flow tonight will become westerly on Tuesday as Alberto
moves north across the Florida panhandle and Alabama. A
strengthening sub-tropical ridge will result in southerly winds
returning Wednesday, with the onshore flow prevailing the rest of
the week. Seas will remain elevated over the outer Gulf waters
east of Intracoastal city through tomorrow, but will subside
tomorrow night as Alberto continues to push inland.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  92  69  93 /  20  30  10  10
LCH  72  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  20
LFT  72  92  74  93 /  20  30  10  30
BPT  72  92  74  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23



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