Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 251527
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Mid-morning update to reflect a slight slower transition of
precipitation into the western counties of the WFO PAH forecast
area (southeast Missouri). Some refinements to PoP, Weather, QPF,
sky cover, etc., through tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 657 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The upper low has finally weakened and progressed far enough east
that the region is free of precipitation and cloud cover early
this morning. With the wet ground, light wind, and clear sky,
patchy fog has developed in some locations overnight. Will need to
monitor for patchy dense fog in favored locations through sunrise.
Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across much of the area
today. Plenty of sunshine to start the day will give temperatures
a boost early on. Increasing clouds by afternoon should limit any
additional warning. Even so, highs should manage to reach the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

An upper low over Nebraska early this morning is forecast to
deepen as it pivots into the Ozarks tonight and then across the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. This will
result in the development of showers across the southwestern half
of the region late this afternoon into tonight. Showers could
linger across the southern half of the forecast area Thursday
morning, with even a small chance of showers in western Kentucky
Thursday afternoon. This is based primarily on the GFS, which is
our model of choice in the short term. Rainfall totals of one
quarter to one half inch are expected across much of southeast
Missouri and extreme southwest Kentucky, with less than a quarter
inch elsewhere. Much of the Evansville Tri-State will likely stay
dry during this event. Dry weather eventually encompasses the
entire region by Thursday night.

Shortwave energy currently over western Canada is forecast to
stream southeast across the Northern Plains and into the region by
Friday. Models have backed off substantially on any chance of
rain with this feature, likely due to the lack of return flow in
the wake of Thursday`s upper low. Will keep most of the area dry,
but linger a slight chance of showers in western Kentucky Friday
afternoon based primarily on the 00Z GFS and collaboration with
neighboring offices.

Temperatures are forecast to remain mild through the period.
Consensus guidance places highs in the mid to upper 60s both
Thursday and Friday. Lows should range through the 40s. Lower 40s
are forecast Friday night, but it does not appear that readings
will be cold enough for frost formation at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Dry weather and pleasant temperatures are expected this weekend into
early next week, courtesy of a reversal of the eastern
trough/western ridge pattern. Ensemble means of the global models
continue to displace the eastern N. America trough this weekend. A
deep-layer ridge is forecast to reside over the southeastern states
early next week.

Over the weekend, a Canadian surface high will move southeast from
the northern Plains to the middle/upper Ohio Valley. There are even
some indications that a weak backdoor cold front will precede this
high on Saturday. This high will temper the warmup a bit this
weekend. Highs are forecast to be around 70 Saturday and the lower
70s on Sunday. The main impact of the Canadian high will be chilly
temps on Saturday night, with lows in the lower to mid 40s. Some
upper 30s still seem plausible Sat night given the dry air and
the position of the surface high nearly overhead.

Early next week, deep-layer ridging from the surface to 500 mb will
become quasi-stationary over the southeastern states. This blocking
high will pump warmer and slightly more humid air into our region on
strengthening southwest winds. Daytime highs will likely touch 80 in
many areas by Tuesday. Overnight lows will moderate into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 657 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Patchy dense LIFR fog will burn off by mid morning. A deck of MVFR
ceilings over far eastern portions of the area should also tend to
lift to VFR by mid to late morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
forecast through the afternoon and much of the evening as high and
mid clouds increase ahead of an approaching low. That low will
spread rain showers into southwestern portions of the area late this
afternoon and evening (impacting KCGI/KPAH). Visibility beneath the
shower activity may be reduced to MVFR at times. MVFR ceilings are
also expected over much of southeast Missouri and far west Kentucky
late tonight. Dry weather should prevail at KEVV/KOWB. Light winds
will generally be from the north through the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RJP



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