Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1228 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Adjusted POPs a bit, increasing probabilities for Wadena/Hubbard
counties for current activity moving into that area as well as CAM
output that has some decent QPF for our southeastern counties.
Increased cloud cover across the southeastern counties also.
Temperatures seem on track, with northern counties warmest and
already in the low 70s, and coolest in the southeast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Water vapor loop indicated a mid level trough located over the IA/NE
border. Trough will move into southern MN today, then to the east
thereafter. Low level moisture will return to the southern Red River
Valley today. Area radar indicated rain over southwest MN and was
moving north. Expect very light rain/sprinkles to move into the
southern zones later this morning. Most of the light precip should
move east out the area by this afternoon.

With low level moisture returning north will not go as cold
tonight...however the northeast zones should be the coldest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Generally 500mb ridging remains over the FA on Tuesday into early
Tuesday evening. Therefore continue to expect plenty of sun, fairly
light south winds, and mild highs for Tuesday. The pattern begins to
shift to southwest flow aloft late Tuesday night into Wednesday,
which means the start of a period of more unsettled weather. Timing
the onset of any pcpn remains the main challenge, with the
ECMWF/Canadian models a little slower to bring in any pcpn. The
ECMWF/Canadian actually hold off any pcpn until Wednesday night.
Previous forecast continuity blends in the GFS/NAM, which do bring
in some low pcpn chances as early as Tuesday night.

So not very good agreement on how soon any light pcpn will move into
the FA Tuesday night into Wednesday, but either way it would be
minimal amounts. Chances look a little better by Wednesday night.
SPC has portions of the FA in a marginal risk, mentioning warm
advection and the low level jet kicking in by Wednesday night.
For Thursday to Saturday, a 500mb low will track through the
Northern Plains, keeping it unsettled. Better chances for pcpn may
be during peak heating, settling down somewhat at night. Ridging
returns by Sunday, ending the threat for any additional pcpn.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

All sites are VFR as mid and high clouds move into the
southeastern forecast area. Some showers will move into the KBJI
area later this afternoon, so have VCSH into the early evening.
KFAR has some guidance showing some MVFR ceilings coming in late
in the period, with others keeping them VFR. Have ceilings
lowering to around 6000 ft this evening and will keep the morning
at around 3500 ft and adjust as we get closer. KBJI is more
certain to go MVFR by tomorrow morning. Northern and western TAF
sites will stay VFR. Winds will be from the southeast and then
south to southwest late in the period.




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