Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KFGF 201117

Area Forecast Discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
355 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Expecting a quiet and beautiful day across the region today.
Temps will be on the chilly side to start, with frost advisories
going until 8 AM across some of the the northwestern and eastern
zones. But temps will rise into the 70s under sunny skies and with
light winds. The area is under the influence of high pressure
currently as a ridge of high pressure extends from ND east through
northern MN. Aloft, weak NW flow exists with an upper ridge over
western ND. The upper ridge and surface high will drift slowly
eastward today. Meanwhile, the late May sun will work on
moderating temps across the region. As temps cool tonight, they`ll
have a longer ways to go...and with a bit of an increase in dew
points, believe another frost is unlikely. The closest sites in
the MOS guidance is Bemidji coming in at 38F and Wadena at 37F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Monday and Tuesday...
Upper level ridge building is forecast for Mon and Tue. Colder
air forecast to remain over eastern Canada this period as upper
ridge over western Canada expands east. Low level moisture
increases and low level jet increases by Wed which will increase
the threat for thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Saturday...
Long wave pattern retrogrades a bit through the period and also
weakens. Long wave ridge over ALTA backs into BC. Long wave trough
near Greenland backs into the Canadian archipelago. Pattern
remains split with northern stream over Canada and southern stream
over the states. The GFS and the ECMWF were in reasonable
agreement. The GFS was a little faster solution than the
ECMWF...especially in the northern stream. Precipitable water
expected to rise above an inch during much of the period. May
transition to northwest flow aloft on Fri or Sat. Upper ridge over
western Canada continues to expand east much of the period.

High temperatures were increased about a degree for Wed, Thu, and
Sat. Highs were decreased one to three degrees for Fri from
yesterdays package.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

VFR...NE winds will become light and variable tonight as sfc ridge
moves over area. By 12Z, look for lightest, most vrb winds to be
roughly along a Carrington (46D) to Bemidji (KBJI) line with winds
to south becoming more easterly and winds to north becoming more
westerly through the day. May see some early morning frost on
planes left out during the night, especially east of the valley.


ND...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NDZ006-007.

MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ006-008-009-



SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Speicher is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.