382
FXUS61 KALY 111922
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
322 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will bring some rain showers to the region
tonight into Sunday morning before gradually tapering off later
in the day. Cool conditions continue through the rest of the
weekend with more seasonable weather returning for next week.
Rain chances continue through the early to the middle part of
next week with a trend toward drier weather by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A negatively tilted upper-level low will continue to approach
from the Great Lakes through this afternoon. Weak instability
has developed with latest SPC mesoscale analysis showing 100-200
J/kg of SBCAPE across portions of the region. This has
resulted in an increase in diurnal cumulus clouds with pop up
showers also increasing in coverage. Best coverage of showers
will be for areas west of the Hudson River this afternoon but
some isolated showers are also possible along and to the east.

Showers will continue through tonight as the core of the upper
low crosses the region into Sunday morning. Lows will fall
mainly into the 40s with some upper 30s across the higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will begin to depart the region to the east
with ongoing showers in the morning gradually tapering off
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Cloudy conditions
along with the showers will hold temperatures mainly into the
50s to around 60. Weak ridging and surface high pressure build
into the region for Sunday night with dry weather returning.
Some breaks in the clouds are possible and this could result in
some areas of fog. Lows are expected to fall back into the upper
30s to mid-40s.

Generally flat, zonal flow will be in place on Monday with an
upper-level trough approaching from the west Monday night. The
day will start out dry but chances for showers will increase
throughout the day and night as a warm front approaches from the
south and west. The best shower chances during the day Monday
will be for areas north and west of Albany and for areas along
and north of I-90 Monday night as the warm front lifts to the
north. Some weak instability may be present and allow for a few
rumbles of thunder. Highs will top out mainly in the 60s with
some pockets of upper 50s across the higher elevations.
Southerly winds will pick up during the afternoon with a few
gusts over 20 mph. The clouds and warm air advection will cause
temperatures Monday night to only fall into the upper 40s to
mid-50s..

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal boundary will be moving from the west towards the area
for Tuesday into Tuesday night. With plenty of moisture
streaming northward ahead of the boundary, showers and
thunderstorms look fairly widespread, especially Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Temps should be fairly mild ahead of the
front with 60s and 70s.

Although the front should pass through the area on Tuesday
night, it looks to stall just east of the area. A wave of low
pressure will be developing offshore the mid Atlantic States and
will be lifting northeast for the midweek. The models still
show some differences if this feature will close off or not, but
a period of additional rainfall looks possible for Wednesday if
this system remains close to the area. With the clouds and
possible precip, will keep temps in the 60s for Wednesday.

Behind these departing systems, some dry weather looks to move
back into the region, although it will depend on how quickly
thing do wind up departing away from the area. For now, will
keep POPs generally in the slight chc range for Thursday and
Friday with temps near seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions in place to start this
afternoon, with increasing mid level clouds. Showers will also
increase in coverage as an upper level low moves in from the
west. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with some of the SHRA,
but not a great enough chance to mention in the first 6-9
hours. Expecting mainly scattered coverage for much of the 24
hour TAF period, so will include VCSH initially, then PROB30
from overnight into Sunday morning. Conditions (mainly cigs)
will likely lower to MVFR levels towards early Sunday morning,
then should remain MVFR through 18z.

Winds will be south-southeast around 5-10 kt through 18z Sunday.
Occasional gusts to 15 kt will be possible at KALB.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...JPV