Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
000
FXUS62 KCAE 291303
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
903 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of strong high pressure and upper ridging will keep the
region dry through the weekend with a significant warming trend
into early next week. The next chance for any rainfall appears
to be during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM Update: After a chilly start to the morning, with many
locations dropping to the mid 30s. Temperatures have generally
risen into the upper 40s to lower 50s, thanks in large part to
the dry airmass in place. Otherwise, high pressure continues to
build over the region as an upper ridge inches closer to the
area. Given the dryness and overachieving temperatures
yesterday, did bump up highs slightly for this afternoon.

Early-morning discussion: Dry high pressure continues to build
into the region this morning following a reinforcing surge of
dry air that pushed in overnight. Temps will continue to fall a
few more degrees through sunrise, with some patchy frost
possible in a few spots in the western Midlands. Clear skies are
expected throughout the day thanks to strong subsidence aloft
as we sit under some broad convergence and nva downstream of the
mid-level ridge axis over the Ohio Valley. Northwest winds will
turn westerly by later this morning, but remain light, 5-10
mph. Winds will weaken quickly after sunset this evening and
some mid-level cloud cover will likely push into the region
between 2am and 7am Saturday as a weak shortwave swings through
and flattens the ridge to our west. Consequently temps tonight
should be 5-10 degrees warmer than Friday morning, in the mid-
upper 40`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upcoming Easter Holiday Weekend is shaping up to be quite
pleasant. Flat ridging will be in place overhead with a quasi-
stationary surface high to our south. This will kick off a warming
trend for temperatures. The air will be dry, with PW values around
0.4-0.6" through Saturday night, then slightly higher for Sunday,
around 0.7"-0.9". Skies are expected to be mostly clear Saturday,
with increasing mainly high level clouds Sunday as a weak mid-level
shortwave acts on some of that better moisture field. The pressure
gradient is expected to generate some elevated southwest winds, but
increasing humidities should alleviate any fire weather concerns.
Temperatures Saturday top out in the mid to upper 70s, then reach
the low 80s on Sunday. Lows are expected to fall into the 50s on
Saturday Night and only to the low 60s Sunday Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The warming trend continues Monday into Tuesday with temperatures in
the low to mid 80s. Strong upper ridge will build overhead with a
deep trough expected across the Western CONUS. This will strengthen
southwest flow early next week, with Gulf moisture spreading over
the region into midweek. A low pressure system will move out of the
Plains toward the Great Lakes region, and the associated cold front
will approach our region on Tuesday night.

Model solutions seem to be in better agreement with the latest runs
regarding the timing and track of this system. Best chances for rain
across the Midlands/CSRA looks to be Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with rain moving east of the area Wednesday evening and Wednesday
night. The timing looks to be decent for convective activity, and
both the EC and GFS ensembles generate a few hundred Joules of CAPE
over the area. Upper dynamics may also be supportive of severe
thunderstorms, but there is time to iron out those details.
Southwest winds will also be quite breezy to perhaps windy Tuesday
and Wednesday as the front moves through. The replacement airmass
behind the front is expected to be drier and cooler, with
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday in the low to mid 70s and upper
60s, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period.

Dry high pressure continues to push into the region early this
morning with clear skies expected through late in the period.
Light winds overnight will strengthen later after sunrise, from
the northwest through 15z at 5-8kts, then turn out of the west
afterward. Gusts this afternoon will generally top out around
15-18 knots. The only cloud cover of note is some 15-20k foot
base alto-cu that will push in from the west late in the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
through Tuesday morning. A few showers or thunderstorms possible
late Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.