


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
428 FXUS62 KMHX 150641 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 241 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of very weak troughs and fronts will approach Eastern NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore. The high builds into Eastern NC late week with dangerous heat and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 2 AM Tue... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast this morning, migrate inland this afternoon - Heavy downpours possible this afternoon Eastern NC remains fairly quiet this morning despite convective activity approaching from both the north and the south. A decaying complex of thunderstorms over southern VA continues to move southward, but will likely dissipate before reaching northern NC. Off the southern NC coast this morning isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will slowly become more widespread and move northward over coastal NC over the next few hours. After sunrise, coastal convective activity will continue to push inland, and as surface heating initiates the sea breeze circulation, it seems likely precip activity will focus along this boundary from late morning through early afternoon along the US 17 corridor. Convection will then continue to push inland mid to late afternoon, with the highest coverage of storms expected (40-50%) over the coastal plain. We could see some heavy downpours as PWats jump to 2"-2.25", but overall lack of forcing and deep layer shear will keep any organization to a minimum. With more cloud cover around, high temps will be a touch cooler, with afternoon readings expected in the upper 80s to around 90. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 2 AM Tue...The gradient picks up as high pressure builds closer to ENC from offshore tonight. After some lingering isolated convection over the coastal plain dissipates this evening, attention will turn to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms along the coast overnight. A long fetch of tropical moisture will saturate the low levels, with only weak convergence needed to get convection. Initially tonight shower activity will mostly be offshore, but coverage will increase overnight and into early tomorrow morning to 25-45% along and east of US 17. Muggy and warm conditions continue with lows only in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM Tue... Key Messages... -Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend -Potential for hazardous heat from Thursday through Sunday Expect daily chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms with our lowest chances to see any precip across ENC on Thurs/Fri as a "relatively" drier airmass overspreads the area. While we have average confidence that we see shower and thunderstorm activity each day, we have lower confidence in the exact locations within ENC that will be impacted as this will be highly dependent on the days sea/river/sound breezes and exact timing of incoming mid level troughs. Jet stream will remain well to the north of the area through the next several days with upper troughs tracking across the Northern Plains and into the Northeast. Typical predictability issues are noted later in the long term (Sat and beyond) with lower confidence in the exact strength and position of the upper level troughs and ridges over the CONUS. Our upper level feature of note remains ridging, which will be centered over the Southeast on Wed and will gradually shift west in the following days into the Southern Plains this weekend while weakening slightly. At the mid levels, a weak shortwave will depart ENC on Wed before weak ridging overspreads the area on Thurs/Fri bringing convergence aloft and thus limiting precipitation chances for these two days. This mid level ridging breaks down over the weekend allowing a parade of weak mid level shortwaves to track across the Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. At the surface, PWATS generally remain at or above 1.5 inches through the entire period. With multiple weak mid level shortwaves moving across the area over the next several days, this will bring a daily threat for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms to ENC. As mentioned above, as a weak mid level ridge builds overhead Thurs and Fri and this could limit precip chances on those days before we once again see increasing chances at afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the weekend and early next week. While there will be a lack of wind shear across ENC over the next several days, 1000- 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place each day bringing the potential for sub-severe wind gusts within the strongest storms. High temps each day range from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Hottest temps are currently forecast to occur between Fri-Sun. With dewpoints in the 70s, this will bring the potential for widespread heat indices around 100-110 F. As a result, heat related issues likely begin either on Thurs or Fri across ENC and persist into the weekend. Given this, proper precautions should be taken by those who either work outdoors or are planning on spending an extended amount of time outside later this week and weekend. Lows through the entire long term remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Morning/... As of 2 AM Tue... Key Messages: - Cirrus moving over the area may limit the low stratus potential early this morning. Lower confidence in sub-VFR conditions developing. Mostly VFR conditions are present early this morning with high pressure weakly ridging into the area from offshore. There is a threat of at least MVFR stratus developing later this morning before sunrise as the boundary layer continues to cool, however a large cirrus shield moving into the area from the north from an extensive area of convection in southern VA puts some doubt in the forecast. If the cirrus remains thick enough over the area this will limit additional cooling, and keep stratus from forming. Right now have taken a middle approach and show the potential for low end MVFR ceilings in the TEMPO group. Soon after sunrise, any stratus that has formed will lift to VFR levels, but skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy as scattered coastal convection migrates inland through the morning and early afternoon hours. 30-50% chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected for the TAF sites and areas along and west of US 17 later this afternoon through early evening, with the potential for some brief sub-VFR conditions developing in and around these storms. Tonight, VFR conditions should prevail. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 230 AM Tue...There will be a chance for some diurnal showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Though the lowest chances to see showers or thunderstorms will be on Thursday and Friday as a "relatively" drier airmass overspreads ENC. Either way, a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each afternoon and early evening is expected across ENC into this weekend. If it does rain, then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 230 AM Tue... No real changes in forecast thinking. Yet another day of rather benign boating conditions are expected as S-SW`rly winds will remain around 5-15 kts across all our waters today and tonight. Highest winds will be observed in the late afternoon to evening as diurnal gradient is maximized in the near shore/sound waters. Seas along our coastal waters will change little as well, remaining around 2-3 ft. The one spoiler to the lighter winds and low seas will be the ongoing chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 230 AM Tue...Conditions do begin to deteriorate on Wed as ridging across the sub- tropical Atlantic strengthens and a thermal trough develops in the afternoon across the Coastal Plain. This will allow S-SW`rly winds to increase to 10-20 kts on Wed afternoon with the potential for even stronger winds on Thurs as the thermal trough strengthens further. Winds increase to 15-25 kts with higher gusts across all waters. This will bring a threat for SCA conditions, mainly across the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and the central coastal waters which will have the most favorable orientation for SCA`s given the wind direction. As we get into the weekend winds do ease slightly as ridging to our east weakens, allowing SW`rly winds to fall from 15- 20 kts on Fri to 10-15 kts on Sat. 2-3 ft seas on Wed along our coastal waters increase to 3-5 ft Thurs night in response to the stronger winds with seas then lowering down to 2-4 ft on Fri as winds ease. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the period with the lowest chances to see thunderstorms on Thurs/Fri. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...SGK/RCF MARINE...RCF