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000
FXUS62 KMHX 190824
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
424 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An offshore high/inland trough pattern will continue through mid
week producing a hot southwest flow across the area. A weak
frontal boundary is expected to move into northern sections
tonight and Wednesday with a stronger front pushing through the
area Thursday. That front will lift back north across the area
Friday night and early Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 225 AM Tue...Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure
anchored offshore and troughing across west/central NC. Weak
frontal boundary currently extending through the NE US and back
into the upper Mid-West, will slowly sink southward through the
Mid-Atlantic states today, approaching NC late this afternoon
and evening. The upper ridge builds aloft today resulting in
rising temps, but should also serve to help suppress diurnal
convection.

Main story today will be the heat and humidity, with today being
the hottest day of the season thus far. Some record temps will
be possible (see Climate section below for details). Low level
thickness values, 850mb temps 20-21C, and W/SW flow support
highs in the upper 90s inland, and low to mid 90s along the
coast. Very hot temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s will
result in heat index values climbing to 105-110 degrees this
afternoon. A Heat Advisory continues for all of Eastern NC. Some
heat indices for spots near Hwy 17 could briefly top out
between 110-113 degrees. Isolated showers and storms will be
possible this afternoon and evening, and will keep slight chance
mention given the instability and moisture in place. NSSL WRF
shows best chances across the southern forecast area near the
seabreeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Tue...A weak front will push southward into the
northern forecast area this evening, which will help to trigger
showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for convection will be
across NE NC, and increased pops slightly near the Albemarle
Sound and Northern OBX per latest high res guidance. Isolated
strong storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy
rain will be possible. Expect this convection to wane after 06z.
Another warm and muggy night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Guidance continues to indicate that upper
ridge will weaken enough to allow weak frontal intrusion into
northern sections Wednesday, followed by a slightly stronger
push late Thursday into Friday. Ridging then returns Friday
night through weekend with a stronger upper trough and surface
front expected Monday. Result will be somewhat of a
roller coaster effect on temps and generally at least a
scattered threat of showers and tstms each day.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Slight weakening of upper ridge
will allow surface boundary to be over northern sections early
Wednesday morning with models generally agreeing on push to near
Hwy 70 by afternoon, then stalling and lifting back north Wed
night as low pressure moves across mid Atlantic region. Boundary
will be a focus for convective development mid-morning through
afternoon and a few storms could be strong to severe per SPC day
2 outlook. Adjusted POPs to 30% northern sections late morning
into early afternoon, and to 50% for southern 2/3 of area during
afternoon. Chance POPs will continue Wed night with boundary
lifting back north and shortwave moving across. Front will have
limited effect on temps as westerly flow in advance of boundary
still supports max temps in mid to upper 90s and heat indices
105-110 for southern 2/3 of area while northern sections held
to lower 90s. NE winds will keep northern Outer Banks in 80s.

Thursday through Monday...Front to north of area Thu morning
will push south during afternoon and to near ILM Thu night and
will again be a focus for convective development, with some
potential for heavy downpours and a few strong to severe storms.
Increased POPs to likely for northern 2/3 of area Thu afternoon
with high chance for southern sections Thu night. High pressure
moving across to north will keep front stalled to south Friday
but models continue to indicate scattered convective threat.

Front lifts back north by Saturday morning with return of
inland thermal trough pattern for rest of weekend, and will keep
typical 20% coast/30% inland POPS both days. Stronger upper
trough moves and associated cold front moves in from NW Monday
and will have chance POPS all zones for now.

Hot and humid conditions will continue Thursday with highs
mainly low to mid 90s and heat indices around 105 inland. Some
relief behind front for Friday with highs in mid to upper 80s.
Heat returns for weekend with around 90 for Saturday and low-mid
90s Sunday, then some cool down expected for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 225 AM Tue...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for
the TAF period across Eastern NC. Mostly clear skies and light
SW winds will continue overnight, which should limit any fog
development. With hot high pressure over the area today, VFR
conditions are expected to continue, with the exception of some
very isolated thunderstorms (best chances at OAJ). A weak front
will push into the area tonight, precip will likely remain NE of
the TAF sites but wind shift expected.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through most
of the long term, with the exception of temporary sub VFR
conditions possible each day due to scattered thunderstorms.
Some sub-VFR CIGs will be possible with NE-E flow behind front
Friday into Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 225 AM Tue...Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt north of
Hatteras with seas around 2 ft, and SW winds 10-20 kt south of
Hatteras with seas 3-5 ft. An offshore high/inland trough
pattern will continue today bringing typical diurnally enhanced
wind pattern. Will hold onto SCA for a bit longer, with 41025
now at 6 ft. Winds diminish a bit this morning, generally SW
5-15 kt then becoming S 5-15 kt north of Hatteras and SW 15-20
kt south of Hatteras this afternoon and evening. There could be
a few gusts to 25 kt across the southern/central waters and
Pamlico Sound late afternoon and evening. Seas 3-5 ft south of
Hatteras expected to subside to 2-4 ft by late morning. A weak
frontal boundary will approach the waters late today, then sink
southward into the northern waters tonight. Still some
uncertainty in how fast the boundary will move, and where it
stalls late tonight, but seems likely it will not make it south
of Hatteras. Not expecting a strong surge behind the front at
this time. Winds north of Hatteras becoming NW to NE 5-15 kt.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Southern half of waters will continue to
see SW winds mainly 10-15 KT into Thu, while northern half will
see shifting and variable conditions due to weak front pushing
in from north Wed and then returning north Wed night. Stronger
front expected to push through all waters late Thu into Friday,
producing NE-E winds 10-15 KT. Winds will return to S-SW 10-15
KT by late Saturday with return of inland trough/offshore high
pattern. Seas mainly 2-4 feet during period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record high temperatures will be possible early this week.

Record High Temps 6/19 (Today)
LOCATIONTEMP/YEAR
Cape Hatteras   92/1984
Greenville      98/1975
Jacksonville    97/1984
Kinston 100/1944
Morehead City94/1984
New Bern99/1970

Record High Temps 6/20 (Wednesday)
LOCATIONTEMP/YEAR
Cape Hatteras   92/2011
Greenville      99/1970
Jacksonville    97/1994
Kinston 104/1924
Morehead City93/2011
New Bern98/1994

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX