986
FXUS65 KBOU 150243
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
843 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms ending this evening. Main
  threat will be gusty out flow winds to 50 mph.

- Afternoon showers/thunderstorms to continue most days this
  week, with an isolated threat for severe storms over the
  northeastern corner Tuesday. Best chance of rain across the
  plains comes Wednesday.

- High temperatures to linger in the 90s across the plains
  through mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Minor changes for thunderstorm trends; decaying clump of storms in
the northeast corner and a bit faster decrease elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Mountain convection had an early start this morning, with storms
initiating along the Continental Divide around 9AM. Temperatures are
quickly climbing towards convective temperature across the plains,
with multiple observation sites reporting 90+ degrees. As of 11:30
AM (Monday) ACARS soundings are showing just over 500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, large dewpoint depressions, and DCAPE of over 1000 J/kg.
This will be sufficient for thunderstorms to sustain themselves as
they move onto the lower elevations, or for storms to develop once
the convective temp is reached. These storms will be capable of bringing
gusty outflows and dry microbursts between 30-40 mph, with a few
as strong as 50-55 mph. With weak flow aloft, slow moving storms
may bring some localized heavy rainfall (generally over the higher
elevations), but with weak shear in place, storms are not
expected to become severe, however, small hail will be possible.
Cloud cover will help cool temperatures off this evening before
clearing from west to east overnight.

Flow aloft begins to increase on Tuesday as a shortwave moves across
the northern Rockies. At the surface, a lee trough will stretch from
across the plains of Colorado to South Dakota. Forecast soundings
show MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg with modest amounts of shear (30
to 40 kts) over the northern corner of Colorado in the
afternoon/evening, where dewpoints will be in the 50s. This would
support an isolated severe threat, with large hail and gusty
winds being the main hazards. Elsewhere across the forecast area,
scattered showers and weaker storms will be possible.

A cold front/shortwave combo is expected to bring widespread
precipitation and brief cooldown on Wednesday and Thursday. Some
localized heavy rainfall will be possible as ensembles show PWAT
values between 120-160% of normal from the Continental Divide
eastward. A few stronger storms will be possible along and behind
the front, especially along the northern plains where shear will be
strongest, and the severe threat will be higher. Temperatures will
feel cool compared to the rest of the week, but still climb into the
mid to upper 80s across portions of the plains, with high 70s for
areas along the Wyoming/Nebraska borders.

By Friday, the ridge reamplifies and temperatures rebound to the
90s across the plains. Ensembles hold 90 degree temperatures
steady for the foreseeable future. A more active pattern will
continue through the forecast period with shortwaves passing
through the upper-level flow, and scattered afternoon showers and
storms will be possible each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A strong push of west-northwest winds has stalled over DEN, with
gusty south-southeast winds in place. Appears some sort of
southerly wind component will win out, but confidence in wind
direction is low with many outflow boundaries around and more
expected to be produced. Winds eventually settle at southerly
direction 03-06Z. Enhanced drainage flow may produce southerly
winds to 25 knots 05-09Z. Winds weak towards 12Z and turn
southwesterly. For Tuesday, northwest winds are expected to
develop 16-18Z and then continue into the afternoon. The airmass
will be drier with fewer showers and storms. Though there`s about
30 percent at a high based showers bringing gusty outflow winds
during the afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
DISCUSSION...Bonner
AVIATION...Meier