Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 111557
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
957 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

There isn`t a cloud over the CWA right now. Current temperatures
around the Urban Corridor area 14 to 20 degrees F cooler right now
compared to yesterday at the same time. Will make a couple minor
adjustments to temperature and wind GFE grids. Will make sure the
sky and pop grids are zeroed out as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

An upper level low moving across southern Canada pushed the upper
level ridge over the area off to the east. Westerly flow aloft
will prevail over the Central Rockies through tonight. A cold
front associated the low to the north raced south across Colorado
last night. This will bring cooler temperatures for today with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across northeast Colorado.
Unfortunately, this system won`t increase moisture over the area.
With no increase in moisture and a stable airmass in place, clouds
will have a hard time forming today. It will be windy this
morning over the eastern plains behind the front. Over north
central Colorado, gusty west winds are expected this afternoon and
will increase the fire danger, mainly near the Wyoming border.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

On Tuesday, a dry westerly flow aloft will remain over CO with a
ridge of high pressure over New MX and a large trough along the
Canadian border. The models do generate minimal qpf mainly over
the southern part of the cwa in the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will start to warm up into the mid 80s. Wednesday
through Friday will be the warmest days of the week. The upper
level ridge over the southern U.S. will build northward into CO.
The flow aloft will transition to southwesterly, with some
subtropical moisture advecting into the region. The best shower
and thunderstorm coverage would appear to be late Thursday into
Friday. The fire danger will remain elevated, especially over the
mountain valleys Jackson, Grand, Summit and Park counties. By the
end of the week, an upper level low will be dropping into the
Great Basin from the Pacific Northwest, and the ridge of high
pressure will be over the southern Great Plains. There is some
inconsistency in the models regarding the timing. The GFS is
faster, moving the subtropical moisture into the region by
Saturday. The ECMWF does not do it until Sunday. At least the
trend is similar. Precipitable Water values will be highest over
the weekend and continuing into next week. Weaker flow aloft would
favor thunderstorms with heavier rainfall, especially if remnants
of what left of Bud get entrained into the region. By the
weekend, pw values over cwa may be significantly higher. Values in
the mountains double with values up to 0.75 inches. Across the
northeast plains, values of 1.0-1.5 inches may be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 952 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Models keep showing northeasterly winds at DIA to become more due
easterly by 18Z, then southeasterly after 21Z. Then the
southeasterlies will hang on past 03Z until they go to normal
drainage patterns by 06Z. There will be no ceiling issues today
or tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

A cold front pushed through overnight and will bring some relief
to the very warm and dry conditions. Relative humidities will be a
little higher today, mainly in the teens. Gusty northerly winds
will prevail on the plains this morning. Over the higher terrain
westerly winds will increase this afternoon with the strongest
winds found near the Wyoming border. North Park should see a long
enough duration of gusts greater than 25 mph with relative
humidities less than 15 percent for Red Flag conditions.

The fire danger will remain elevated through the rest of the week
as temperatures increase each day. The driest areas will continue
to be the high mountain valleys where the fire danger will remain
elevated.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ211.

&&

$$

UPDATE........RJK
SHORT TERM....Meier
LONG TERM.....Cooper
AVIATION......RJK
FIRE WEATHER..Meier



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