000
FXUS65 KBOU 201943
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
143 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Current WV satellite shows the low center spinning over southern
Utah with the def zone moving over the central mountains. Another
branch of moisture moved over the eastern portions of the state
bringing isolated thunderstorms and a mix of rain and graupel.
Drying to the south of the vort max will pull the system to the SE
over northern NM. At this time snow is increasing in coverage and
intensity over Park county and will continue to through the
evening hours. Coverage is still expected to increase into the
Northern mountains as wind upslope improves through the evening
and overnight hours. At the surface rain is expected to move into
the Denver area between 4 and 5 pm and change over to snow around
midnight and continue through the early morning hours.

By Saturday morning the system is expected to push ENE across CO
with wrap around continuing to bring some rain and snow mix to the
plains and light snow in the mountains that will gradually taper
off. Models indicate another push of snow to the northern
mountains and foothills with increased ENE flow Saturday late
afternoon. Overall, did not make any major changes to amounts with
8 to 14 inches over the mountains with the higher elevation
getting close to 16 inches. On the plains areas could see a trace
to an inch on grassy surfaces with a few inches of wet snow
possible over portions of the east. Temperatures started out
warmer in the mid to upper 50s across Denver and cooler to the
east but will continue to drop through the day with the
precipitation. Lows will hover around freezing overnight with
upper 40s to low 50s on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The closed upper low will continue to move eastward away from
Colorado Saturday evening with drying and more subsident airmass
settling in behind it.There may still be some lingering showers
over the mountains but any additional accumulations would be
minimal. High pressure ridge aloft will be centered over Colorado
by Sunday afternoon with continued dry and warming conditions,
though could still be some showers over the higher mountains with
lingering mountain level moisture.  700mb temperatures rise to
+4c over the Front Range which will put temperatures back into the
60s across lower elevations.

Next fast moving disturbance and associated cold front will sweep
across Northern Colorado on Monday night and Tuesday will cooler
temperatures. Best chance of showers will be over the far
northeast plains with some upward ascent noted and possible
thunderstorms Monday evening with some low CAPES. Stronger
subsident flow develops behind the trof by Tuesday afternoon with
windy conditions on the plains. Could be some showers over east
slopes/foothills on Tuesday in post front environment and some
shallow upslope flow creating the showers.

The next fast moving system moves across the state on Thursday
with the next chance of showers, windy conditions and cooler
temperatures. Dry and warmer again by Friday as ridge of high
pressure builds over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

VFR currently over area terminals with winds switching to a more
westerly direction with some light gusting up to 25 mph through
23z. APA and DEN are expected to switch to the ESE over the next
few hours with precipitation starting around 23z. BJC will have a
21-22z start time but winds will stay predominantly to the WNW
from 10 to 15. Rain is expected to turn over to snow this evening
after 00z and continue through the afternoon hours on Saturday.
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected with lowered ceilings between
001 and 006 with visibilities dropping to below a mile at times
with the heavier snowfall between 06 and 10z. Snow will continue
into the early morning hours before tapering off between 20 and
21z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Saturday for COZ031-035-
036.

Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Saturday for COZ033-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Bowen