Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 192333
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies and winds
primarily out of the north less than 10kts for the TAF period.
There might be winds in the 10-15kt range after 18z for KAMA with
a more northeasterly component, and winds look to become more
variable after 18z at KGUY as they transition to a more southerly
direction towards the end of the TAF period.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tomorrow...

Very benign and welcomed pleasant weather is in store the next 24-36
hours. Winds will be mostly light, skies will be mostly sunny, and
temperatures will be mostly pleasant.  Blended guidance for lows and
highs was reasonable and accepted.

Simpson

LONG TERM...Saturday Night through Thursday...

The long term periods begin with a cold Saturday night as winds
decrease under the influence of a surface ridge and mostly clear
skies. Sunday continues to remain a bit of a wild card with regards
to both clouds and rain chances. There will be enough moisture for
at least partly cloudy conditions, so have resisted the urge to go
with warmer guidance in the presence of southwesterly winds.
Guidance continues to waffle on precipitation potential. GFS had
shown a shortwave translating northeastward across the Panhandles
from New Mexico kicking off some showers, but it has backed off
while the NAM is now the wetter solution. Given the moisture and
some GEFS members also being on board with showers, have kept
mentionable PoPs in the forecast.

After continued southwesterly low level winds lead to a warm Monday,
next good chance for rain arrives Tuesday as a lead wave crosses the
Four Corners region. Lead wave looks to affect our region more, but
with the main wave hanging back a bit, will need to keep chances for
rain in the forecast through Wednesday night. As for flooding
potential, it looks to be non-zero but lower than the event a couple
weeks ago - the system overall is much more progressive, model
soundings do not have as deep a tropical look to them, and GEFS
PWAT values are in the 90th percentile - high but not extreme.

Ferguson

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

AVIATION...18Z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail. Skies will be mostly clear and
northerly winds will lighten early this evening and eventually
begin to veer easterly very late in the TAF period.

Simpson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                40  65  39  64  46 /   0   0   0  20  10
Beaver OK                  39  68  39  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              35  65  39  66  43 /   0   0   0   5   5
Borger TX                  42  68  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10   5
Boys Ranch TX              39  67  39  66  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  40  65  39  64  45 /   0   0   0  20  10
Clarendon TX               45  67  42  65  46 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dalhart TX                 36  65  38  64  43 /   0   0   0  10   5
Guymon OK                  38  67  39  69  44 /   0   0   0   5   5
Hereford TX                39  64  39  63  45 /   0   0   0  20  10
Lipscomb TX                42  68  41  68  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
Pampa TX                   41  66  41  65  46 /   0   0   0  10   5
Shamrock TX                46  68  42  66  47 /   0   0   0   5   5
Wellington TX              48  69  43  67  48 /   0   0   0  10   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/9/77


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.