Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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587
FXUS65 KBOU 181551
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
951 AM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Dry and very warm weather will take hold today. The drier airmass
is showing up nicely on the GOES-16 water vapor imagery and GPS-
MET Precipitable Water trends. We`ve lost about 0.30 inches in the
last 24 hours. Thus, look for mostly sunny and dry conditions over
the forecast area today, along with warmer temperatures with highs
pushing into the 90s across the plains. Forecast on track.

The drier weather will increase fire danger. Winds will gust to
around 20-25 mph in the mountains and high valleys due to the
stronger west/northwest flow aloft today, but most areas should
stay just shy of Red Flag criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018

An upper level trough will move across the central and northern
Plains today with NW flow aloft across nrn CO.  For early this
morning there is one last batch of storms movng southeast across
the NE panhandle which could affect the far northeast corner through
6 am.  Otherwise drier air will spread across the area through the
aftn with no tstm activity expected.  Highs today will be warmer
with readings in the 90s across nern CO.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Summertime will kick into high gear for the next few days as the
strong upper level ridge sets itself up over the southwest quarter
of the country. Winds aloft over Colorado will be light to
moderate and out of the west, advecting warm air from Utah across
the state. Temperatures at 700 mb are forecast to go above +20C
during the afternoons. Subsidence underneath the upper ridge and
the warm temperatures at mid levels will be sufficient to keep
shower development capped, except for over the central Colorado
mountains. These areas may see a few thunderstorms develop as the
warming of the elevated terrain is able to punch through the mid-
level cap. However, mountain showers are only expected to produce
light rainfall and gusty winds. The warmest temperatures are
expected to continue through Saturday and into Sunday.

Changes are expected late Sunday as a surface high builds over
Montana and Wyoming, bringing some cooler air into northern
Colorado Sunday night. At that time, frontal lifting and mid-
level moisture over the region should combine to produce
increasing showers over the plains. The surge of cooler air from
the north will continue Monday and Tuesday, with highs on the
plains expected to be in the mid 80s, a few degrees cooler than
the seasonal normal. Increased shower activity should also
continue both days. Model moisture fields are forecasting 700 mb
specific humidities to be at or above 8 g/kg which should be
sufficient for shower activity to be capable of producing
moderate to heavy rainfall. We will be keeping an eye on this as
subsequent model runs come in. For now the mention of increased
showers is sufficient. Assessments of flooding threats will be
made later.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 951 AM MDT Wed Jul 18 2018

VFR conditions through tonight. Winds will turn northerly this
afternoon at around 10 knots, and should turn anticyclonically to
the northeast/east/southeast 00Z-06Z, eventually returning to a
light south/southwest wind overnight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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