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000
FXUS64 KFWD 270045
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
745 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through/

As of early this evening, most of the storm activity has shifted
east of our area, with the severe threat coming to a close as the
dryline retreats west. A lull in precipitation is expected through
tomorrow morning as the shortwave that brought our earlier storms
continues to depart towards the Midwest. Overnight, expect low
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s as increased nocturnal
cloud cover and gusty winds keep us warmer.

Just upstream of the departing shortwave is another upper low that
is currently over the Desert Southwest. This low will swing into
the Central Plains tomorrow, bringing the lift for our next round
of severe weather. The surface dryline will once again push east,
eventually landing near US-281. Isolated to scattered storms are
expected to form off the dryline and move east/northeast across
North Texas as the upper low continues to move closer to the
Continental Divide. Once again, there is a severe risk with all
hazards possible through the afternoon and early evening.

Over mid-late Saturday evening, storm mode should switch from
supercells and clusters to more of a linear mode as they move
through the region tomorrow night into Sunday morning. One thing
of note is that the tornado threat will be increased with the
initial discrete cells that develop and move into our
northwestern counties. As the line of storms moves east overnight
in response to the upper low swinging towards Wisconsin, all
hazards will remain possible into Sunday morning. During this
time, flash flooding will also pose a concern, especially in those
areas that received heavier rainfall today. A Flood Watch is in
effect for counties east of US-281 and north of US-84 through
Sunday evening. Additional rainfall amounts of 1.5-2.5" with
isolated higher amounts up to 6" are expected over the next 72
hours.

With concern to the strong winds: strong winds are expected to
persist through the morning hours on Sunday, with gusts up to 40
mph possible. With sustained winds around 25 mph tomorrow
afternoon and evening, a Wind Advisory will likely be needed
through Sunday morning. This advisory issuance will be done
overnight tonight.

With the continued severe weather threat: make sure to have your
plan in place and to have multiple ways to receive warnings,
especially when it pertains to our overnight line of storms
tomorrow.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 251 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

Lingering convection from Saturday night will likely be ongoing
somewhere near the I-35 corridor Sunday morning. Activity will
spread slowly east through the eastern half of the region during
the day Sunday as the upper low responsible lifts northeast from
the plains to the Midwest. The severe threat, though not
completely gone, will have lessened with the loss of instability
and the exit of the strongest lift. The threat for flooding,
however, will still exist even if the severe threat has
diminished. A Flood Watch has hence been issued for now through
Sunday afternoon for areas along and east of a line from Bowie to
Granbury to Waco, where widespread rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3
inches can be expected, along with isolated totals of 3 to 5
inches.

A trailing shortwave will continue to provide enough ascent to
keep rain chances going across the far eastern zones into Sunday
evening, with rain ending area-wide Sunday night or Monday
morning. A lull in rain chances will then occur for the rest of
the day Monday as a weak ridge develops aloft, but isolated storms
will return on Tuesday and Wednesday as a couple of weak
disturbances round the northern flank of the ridge. The Tuesday-
Wednesday convection will initiate along the dryline, which will
set up just west of the area, with a few severe storms possible
each afternoon/evening.

Better thunderstorm chances will arrive on Thursday as an upper
trough crosses the central CONUS and a cold front surges south
through the forecast area. These storms will exit to the south as
the front heads for the Gulf Coast Thursday night. Cooler and
drier conditions can then be expected next Friday through the
following weekend behind the front.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Showers and storms have moved east of the TAF sites this evening,
leaving all airports prevailing VFR with gusty south- southeast
winds. MVFR cigs will surge northward overnight, overtaking the
TAF sites before the morning push and lingering through the
morning. Skies should begin to scatter out late morning, returning
to VFR by early tomorrow afternoon. Strong and gusty
southeasterly winds will prevail. The next round of isolated
showers and storms is expected to impact D10 beginning around 19Z,
with better thunderstorm probabilities starting around 22Z. This
activity should remain isolated- scattered in nature enough to
preclude a TEMPO for this TAF issuance. Better chances for direct
terminal impacts will be further into Saturday night and will be
included in future issuances.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  82  65  79  66 /  10  10 100  80  20
Waco                69  82  65  77  66 /  40  10  50  80  30
Paris               67  81  65  74  64 /  30  20  50  90  50
Denton              69  81  62  79  63 /  10  20 100  70  10
McKinney            69  81  65  77  65 /  20  20 100  80  20
Dallas              69  83  65  79  66 /  20  10 100  80  20
Terrell             69  82  67  76  66 /  40  10  60  90  40
Corsicana           70  85  70  79  67 /  50   5  30  80  50
Temple              70  82  67  77  66 /  30  10  40  80  30
Mineral Wells       69  81  61  82  61 /   5  40 100  40   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-144>146-159.

&&

$$