Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 171124
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
624 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018


.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. SSW winds will
become more SE later this afternoon, but will shift back to the SW
tonight. Wind speeds will generally be 10 kts or less. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur throughout the day
across southern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas where a diffuse
cold front is draped, although am not expecting activity in the
vicinity of TAF sites through the period.

-Stalley

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 307 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

The main story today (and the next several days for that matter)
will be the onset of the hottest temperatures so far this year.
Some instances of highs around 103-104 occurred yesterday in the
vicinity of the I-35 corridor, and a repeat is likely again this
afternoon. While heat index values will likely stay near or just
below 105F due to substantial mixing out of dewpoints,
ambient temperatures of 103F or greater for consecutive days also
meet the threshold for the issuance of a Heat Advisory. We have
elected to issue a small Heat Advisory this afternoon for areas
including DFW and Waco where this criteria should be met,
although it will likely need to be expanded for more areas
tomorrow.

Otherwise, we will be watching the potential for diurnally-driven
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across southern
Oklahoma and north/northeast Texas this afternoon. Initiation of
this activity will be aided by the presence of a weak frontal
boundary draped through southeastern Oklahoma where increased
low-level convergence will be located. Cells will have a tendency
to drift slowly south/southeast with weak steering flow aloft.
Coverage is not expected to be particularly high, thus will hold
PoPs to 20-30% with the highest chances confined to locales
northeast of a Sherman to Emory line. Cannot completely rule out
a shower popping up as far south as the DFW area, but will
maintain silent 10% PoPs for the Metroplex at this time. The
typical summertime hazard of downburst winds will exist with any
stronger cells given deep inverted-V soundings and ample DCAPE.
Any lingering activity will dissipate around sunset.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 307 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018/
/Wednesday through Monday/
Upper level high pressure will remain in place through early next
week roughly from the Four Corners region to the lower Mississippi
Valley. This stagnant weather pattern will keep dry, hot and
subsident air in place over the Lone Star State with near record
heat and essentially no chance for appreciable rainfall.

Nearly all of North and Central Texas will see triple digit
temperatures Wednesday with the exception of a few of the eastern
zones where upper 90s are expected. Although it will be hot
Wednesday, it should fall short of most daily records (DFW - 110
and Waco - 106). We will likely need to expand the Heat Advisory
to nearly all but maybe the eastern zones where afternoon highs
will likely be below 103. The only semi good news is that
dewpoints will continue to mix out during the afternoon so heat
index values should not exceed the air temperature in most
locations.

Temperatures trends will inch upwards slightly Thursday through
the weekend with many locations warming near or above 105 which
is in criteria for an Excessive Heat Warning. Some locations could
even approach 110 on Friday if surface winds turn a bit more
southwest as advertised by the GFS. Unfortunately, the nighttime
hours will provide little relief with lows in the upper 70s and
lower 80s.

The only notable change early next week is that the ridge should
deamplify some as an upper trough moves east across the Northern
Plains. As the upper trough moves east it will send a cold front
southward into the Central Plains. Although the front should
remain north of the Red River, it may bring some showers and
storms to the Panhandle and Oklahoma which may increase cloud
cover across North Texas. Regardless, triple digit heat should
continue through at least the middle of next week.

The hot temperatures and lack of rainfall will keep the threat
for new fire starts high through early next week, especially
across the western half of the region where vegetation is
extremely dry. However, the threat for significant wildfires will
remain low since wind speeds should remain below 15 mph.

79.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   103  81 104  82 106 /  10  10   0   0   5
Waco               104  78 104  79 105 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               98  76  98  76 102 /  20  30  10   5   5
Denton             103  78 104  81 107 /  10   5   0   0   5
McKinney           101  78 101  79 103 /  20  20   5   0   5
Dallas             104  82 104  82 106 /  10  10   0   0   5
Terrell            102  78 104  79 106 /  10  20   5   5   5
Corsicana          101  77 100  77 102 /   5   5   0   5   5
Temple             102  75 102  77 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      103  75 104  78 106 /   5   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
TXZ102>104-117>119-131>134-144-145-159.

&&

$$



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