Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 170809
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
309 AM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

The latest surface analysis indicates a stationary front
lingering over the northwest Gulf while satellite imagery reveals
an upper low continuing to spin over Arizona. The result is a
continuation of the overrunning scenario which has been in place
since Sunday night. A broad swath of light rain persists across
the forecast area within the strongest region of isentropic
ascent. This area of precipitation will begin to shift northward
later today and tonight as the upper low begins to track northeast
across the Four-Corners region. An additional half-inch to one-
inch of rain will be possible today which will only help maintain
the ongoing River Flooding issues across the area. However, rain
rates are expected to remain mainly in the 0.10 to 0.25 inch per
hour range, which should result in neither additional flooding
nor worsening of the ongoing river flooding, and the Flood Watch
will be allowed to expire at 7 AM.

The airmass will continue to slowly modify, and high temperatures
will be mainly in the mid 50s this afternoon. Though the upper
low will be moving northeast, it will still remain in a position
favorable for overrunning conditions across Texas through tonight
and rain chances will persist this evening and overnight, mainly
over areas west of the I-35 corridor.

30

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Thursday through Tuesday/

The rain will continue on and off through the end of the week as
persistent warm advection between 850-700 mb remains in place
beneath a favorable position of the upper jet stream. Despite the
continued high rain chances, the gentle upslope ascent lacks any
appreciable instability aloft and rain rates have generally be
light (<1/4"/hr). This should continue through Friday although
there may be bouts of slightly heavier rainfall. In all, another
1-2 inches of steady rainfall will be possible through the end of
the week. Rain chances will be highest during the day Thursday and
again on Friday with perhaps a brief respite Thursday night. The
threat for significant flashy type flooding appears low given the
lower rain rates, but with grounds saturated, most of the
additional rainfall will result in runoff which will continue to
result in flooding of low lying areas, creeks and streams, and
main stem rivers.

Our slow moving upper low to the west will finally get kicked
eastward late Friday and absorbed into the larger trough over the
eastern U.S. This digging trough will help send a cold front
through the region late Friday night and will be accompanied by
significantly drier air aloft. Total precipitable water values
should plummet through the day Saturday effectively bringing an
end to this round of rainfall. The PoPs that we do have mentioned
on Saturday are generally for early morning activity along the
front and should be confined to areas south of I-20.

A 1033 mb surface anti-cyclone builds in over the Ozarks and into
the southeast U.S. by early Monday keeping a relatively dry
northeasterly flow in place across North Texas. Moisture won`t be
far away though, only being shunted as far south as Deep South
Texas and will begin to quickly return northward on Tuesday ahead
of another strong shortwave trough in the progressive upper
pattern. This system should remain progressive as opposed to
getting cut-off like the last one, but despite this, another quick
shot of rainfall will be possible through the middle of next week.

Temperatures will continue to be cool through Friday with a warmup
to near normal ahead of the front on Saturday. Increasing clouds
early next week should keep temperatures generally in the mid-60s.

Dunn

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1151 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/
/06Z TAFS/

Challenges and concerns remain the same as on the 00z TAFs with
cigs being the most challenging with more isentropic ascent
resulting in at least -RA/-SHRA falling through the frontal
inversion between 900-950mb through Wednesday with . Vsbys should
remain VFR for the most part through mid morning Wednesday at DFW
airports, but periods of MVFR with rainfall will persist into the
afternoon hours. If rain were to become heavier, RUC actually
suggests IFR by mid morning, but confidence is too low to forecast
it at this time. Otherwise, slow warming in the afternoon should
put cigs AOA FL020, before a cooling boundary layer and some -DZ
result in low MVFR or possibly IFR cigs Wednesday evening. North
winds less than 10 knots will increase and become NNE 10-15 knots
late morning and beyond.

Waco will begin IFR, go low MVFR BLO FL020 for awhile before
increasing -RA/-SHRA Wednesday morning bring IFR back in after
sunrise. Cigs will likely go back into MVFR later in the day as
low level temperatures warm into the 50s. North winds 10-15 knots
are expected.


05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  52  60  50  60 /  80  40  70  40  70
Waco                53  52  61  52  59 /  80  30  70  30  70
Paris               59  52  59  48  57 /  50  30  30  30  60
Denton              55  52  59  48  57 /  80  60  70  50  80
McKinney            56  52  59  49  57 /  70  40  60  40  70
Dallas              55  53  60  51  60 /  80  30  70  30  70
Terrell             55  54  63  51  57 /  70  20  50  30  60
Corsicana           55  53  60  52  59 /  70  20  60  20  60
Temple              53  51  60  52  59 /  70  50  70  30  70
Mineral Wells       52  50  56  48  60 /  80  70  80  60  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ102>107-115>123-
129>135-141>146-156-157-159.

&&

$$


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