Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 200930
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 AM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

The short term forecast concerns are on the warmer, dryer, and
potentially breezy conditions on Sunday.

he upper ridge in place over the northwestern U.S. today extends
eastward over the the Rockies and high plains regions on Sunday
and Monday as the area of high pressure over the gulf reaches
northward. A weak short wave trough embedded in the upper flow
moves across the central high plains on Sunday with the area of
high pressure at the surface moving further east over the plains
states on Sunday as a surface low consolidates over the
Colorado/Kansas border region. Breezy southwest near surface flow
is expected on Sunday ahead of the deepening surface low with highs
in the 70s and much dryer conditions expected along and west of
the surface trough axis extending into the northern plains. While
fire weather conditions will become more favorable as a result of
the warmer temperatures and dryer conditions, the areas of higher
winds will be further east ahead of the trough and will not be
coincident with the area of RH values dropping to less than 20
percent. Therefore, no fire weather highlights will be needed on
Sunday.

The upper ridge remains intact over the central high plains region
on Monday and Monday night as the low pressure area over western
Nevada begins moving further inland. The surface low over the
region washes out with the resulting trough/front pushing further
south across the forecast area into the southern plains Sunday
night into Monday. High temperatures will be back down into the
60s as a result with no precipitation expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

A ridge remains over the region until Tuesday night when a trough
moves in building over the central U.S. A ridge pushes into the
region but weakens starting Thursday. By Friday night, a trough
begins deepening over the Tri-State region. This trough sits
overhead through Saturday night with a ridge building over the
western U.S. Model guidance differences appear starting Thursday
night with the GFS moving the trough in earlier and deeper into the
central U.S. compared to the ECMWF.

Much above average precipitable values are advected into the Tri-
State region Tuesday night through Thursday night. This is due to
being located on the backside of a surface high over the northern
Midwest. Above average PWATs return briefly with a cold front
expected to move across the Tri-State region Friday night into
Saturday morning. Model consensus exists regarding precipitation
Tuesday night through Wednesday night at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 920 PM MDT Fri Oct 19 2018

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. Light west
winds at taf issuance will shift to the northeast at similar
speeds mid to late morning as a frontal boundary backs into the
area. High pressure moves down into the central plains during the
evening producing a slight increase in southeast winds.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...99


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