Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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865
FXUS64 KJAN 220538 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1138 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

...FLOODING CONTINUING IN THE DELTA THROUGH EARLY TODAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
BKN/OVC MVFR ceilings encompass the majority of the area this
evening. A band of SHRA/TSRA in association with a cold front
extends from NE Louisiana across SE Arkansas and NW Mississippi.
This was resulting in reduced visibility to MVFR/IFR in these
areas. This activity will move farther east overnight before
stalling and retreating back to the west on Thursday. Ceilings may
fall to IFR levels in some areas with gradual improvements through
the day. Many areas will return to VFR conditions by Thursday
afternoon or early evening. An additional bout of low ceilings is
expected later on Thursday night. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had a nearly
stationary front near a Eupora Mississippi to Winnsboro Louisiana
line. An MCV was noted over our northeast Louisiana parishes
tracking ease northeast along this front. Local radars continued to
show most of the rainfall across our area along and behind this
boundary. There remains a low chance of severe storms along and just
ahead of this boundary through this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts
and a brief tornado or two remain the main threats although heavy
rainfall will also accompany the strongest storms. The severe storm
threat will end by this evening and no additional Tornado Watches
are expected. The flash flood threat will continue into Thursday
morning however, generally northwest of a Greenwood Mississippi to
Winnsboro Louisiana line. The stalled front will move back to the
northwest Thursday as surface and mid level ridging strengthen back
over the area from the east. Otherwise a warmer than normal and
moister than normal airmass will remain much of east Mississippi
spreading west again Thursday. Near record afternoon highs and
record warm morning lows will likely be set again and several sites.
/22/

Tomorrow Night through Friday:

The boundary that has been continuing to dump an abundant amount of
rainfall to our northwest will retreat to the north come late
Thursday/Friday morning. A few scattered rain showers can`t be ruled
out Friday during the day but the majority of the region will be
dry. Sticky conditions on Friday however can`t be avoid as dewpoints
linger in the mid 60s; high temperatures will be in the upper 70s.

Saturday, ahead of the cold front, is expected to be very windy
after sunrise as the atmosphere starts to mix and bring strong winds
aloft to the surface. Model soundings show winds aloft 35-45kts
around 850mbs. Sustain winds from the south of 20-25kts with gusts
to 30-35kts are being highlighted during the Saturday afternoon
period. Don`t be surprised if a limited threat for high wind comes
out in the next 24 hours. With strong warm advection, temperatures
will once again over achieve and be in the mid-80s south of I-20 and
upper 70s to the north.

Late Saturday evening and early Sunday morning hours is when an
upper level trough moves in from our west along with deep low level
low positions in the Great Plains. A higher chance of severe storms
during this time period has been highlighted by SPC several days in
advance. The combination of steep mid-level lapse rates, over 1000
Joules/km of CAPE, sufficient surface to 6km shear (above 30kts),
and helicity values over 150 m2/s2 some areas creates the danger for
hazardous conditions. A limited threat for storms has already been
highlighted in our HWO. Before sunrise storms are expected to push
out to the southeast and lingering rain showers will prevail. Skies
are expected to clear out Sunday morning in the Northern Delta,
however clouds and scattered rain showers to our southeast may stick
around as the front stalls near the coast. Monday afternoon into
Tuesday high pressure to our northeast will building and light rain
showers will continue to push towards the coast.

The middle of next week another surface low will develop over
Oklahoma and scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop Tuesday evening into Thursday. If you are
looking for a break from rain, the later of next week looks pleasant
as a strong surface high develops in Central Canada. Cooler
temperatures may once again make an appearance.  /SKH/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  83  64  78 /  45  50  14  24
Meridian      66  83  61  79 /  20  16  13  19
Vicksburg     60  80  65  79 /  85  75  19  26
Hattiesburg   67  83  62  79 /  25  12  15  24
Natchez       65  81  66  79 /  49  69  18  26
Greenville    51  69  63  76 /  96  92  24  29
Greenwood     56  77  64  77 /  89  80  20  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ018-019-034-
     035-040-041.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023-025.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ074-075.


&&


$$



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