Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 172057
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
257 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Through early Sunday evening:

A plug of upper tropospheric, latitudinally-oriented jet stream
energy is producing a shield of occasionally thick cirrus clouds
over the region this afternoon. However, the shield has generally
been thin enough to allow for efficient warming and mixing due to
insolation and temperatures have responded upward to levels at, or
just slightly above, normal. Expect a good deal of these clouds
to clear out or thin more appreciably this evening, with light
winds and a dry lower troposphere tonight allowing for good
radiational cooling. In deference to the radiational cooling
potential, forecasted minimum temperatures were on the cool side
of available guidance and some patchy upper 30s (as well as
shallow fog) are possible in zones of eastern MS. This is a bit
chillier than average, but is not expected to be cold enough
anywhere to result in frost.

Tomorrow, a weak cold front approaching the region from the west
will increase clouds in the afternoon in far western zones, but
otherwise anticipate a lot more sun than clouds throughout the
day. Temperatures should warm well into the 60s again in the
afternoon tomorrow with a few locations probably managing to hit
the 70 mark. Showers will expand early tomorrow morning through
midday to our west, but forcing associated with the incoming
system will be falling apart as it comes into the Lower MS Valley
and there is only a slight chance far northwestern zones could
receive a light rain shower before the afternoon is out. /BB/

Tomorrow night through Saturday:

The synoptic scale pattern will remain relatively active with
several disturbances moving through; however, the southern stream
will continue to be suppressed with a mostly dry forecast through
the Thanksgiving holiday week. The period will start out tomorrow
night with broad troughing from the Northern Plains into New England
with quasi-zonal flow from the Southern Plains through the Mid
South. A shortwave trough embedded in the northern stream flow is
progged to round the base of a longwave trough oriented through the
Great Lakes region Sunday night through Monday. This will help push
a weak and mostly dry cold front through the region as the stronger
forcing for ascent lifts northeast away from the area. A few
isolated to scattered showers will be possible area wide on Monday,
but this will not be a washout by any means.

The southern stream will become more active by the middle of the
holiday week with a fast moving shortwave trough ejecting out of the
Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Upper-level
diffluence will overspread the Gulf Coast with both GFS and ECMWF QPF
patterns depicting an overnight coastal convective complex passing
by to our south on Thanksgiving morning. Climatologically, these
convective complexes typically inhibit inland moisture transport,
however scattered elevated showers will be possible across the Pine
Belt during the morning hours on Thanksgiving. Another, but more
pronounced, shortwave trough will follow right on its heels and is
forecast to eject out of the Four Corners region and into the
Central Plains Thursday night into Friday. The entire area will have
a greater chance of seeing showers Friday into Saturday ahead of an
advancing cold front, but spatial and temporal inconsistencies
between global guidance precludes greater confidence in widespread
precipitation chances at this time. /TW/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through most of the next 24 hours with
only high and thin cirrus clouds (based above 15 kft) overhead and
winds less than 10 mph at the surface. The only exception could be
late tonight through 8 am tomorrow morning when some patchy and
shallow fog could bring temporary IFR conditions due to
visibilities. Confidence of this impact is greatest during this
time window at HBG/PIB. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       40  68  48  62 /   0   0   2  18
Meridian      39  69  45  66 /   0   0   1  14
Vicksburg     42  68  50  60 /   0   0   7  27
Hattiesburg   39  69  46  69 /   0   0   3  12
Natchez       43  68  51  63 /   0   0   7  25
Greenville    43  67  49  56 /   0   6  18  18
Greenwood     43  67  49  56 /   0   0  10  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

TW/BB


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