Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 190746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
346 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...Enhanced Risk of Strong to Severe Storms Over Parts of Area
...Cool and Dry Mid-Late Week...

Currently...HRRR/local WRF guidance has been pretty consistent
showing convection currently developing across the FL panhandle
shifting east and south across north Florida through the pre-dawn
hours. Ahead of this system, fog over west central FL may be able to
push eastward into areas near and west of FL Turnpike and I-4
corridor. However, increasing boundary layer winds through the early
morning should limit coverage of any dense fog conditions. Will
leave patchy fog in the forecast through early morning for these

Today-Tonight...The forecast, especially for the morning hours,
hinges on whether convective complex that hi-res guidance has been
set on across north Florida will be able to shift far south enough
to make it into north central Florida. This area of convection will
likely weaken as it approaches the area due to the more stable/drier
air in place. However, area of rain and a few embedded storms may be
able to hold on should it reach Lake and Volusia counties within a
couple hours past sunrise. It will be over these areas that have the
best chance to experience any strong gusty winds from this system as
it should quickly decay the farther south it progresses. Leaning
toward this scenario have increased PoPs to likely (~60%) across
northern Lake and Volusia with chance PoPs (30-50%) farther south
toward Orlando and Cape for the morning.

Into the afternoon another round of isolated to scattered showers
and potentially a few storms will push eastward, mainly north of
Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast, as an area of higher
moisture crosses the area. This will of course be dependent on if
clouds from morning rainfall breaks up enough for sufficient daytime
heating to take place across northern areas. Low level W/SW flow
looks strong enough to prevent east coast sea breeze from developing
north of Melbourne, but it may be able to form late in the day
farther south, which may lead to a few brief showers from late day
boundary collisions. Have therefore included slight chance PoPs
across this area. Highs are forecast in the low 80s across Lake and
Volusia counties, which may hang on to more cloud cover, but farther
south temperatures should easily rise into the mid 80s, with upper
80s possible along the coast south of the Cape due to lack of or at
least delayed sea breeze formation.

Tue...An evolving threat of storms will materialize over N central
FL early Tue in association with an energetic mid level wave and ascd
jet maxima moving across the SE states. Increasing moisture and an
acceleration of local low to mid level wind fields by early in the
period will lead to a threat of strong to severe storms initially
over N central FL during the morning with increasing likelihood of an
organized line of storms moving across the peninsula near metro
Orlando and Osceola county to include the Space Coast into early
afternoon. Avbl guidance featuring unidirectional flow will favor
strong to damaging straight line winds as the main threat, but an
isolated tornado will also be possible. This threat coincides with
the ltst (Day two) outlook from SPC, keeping the primary threat of
locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two in the form of an
Enhanced to Slight Risk of severe weather roughly along and north of
a line from south Brevard County to Lake Kissimmee in Osceola county
through mid-afternoon. The threat for strong storms will diminish by
late afternoon as the jet energy/wind maxima departs the region. Most
all areas will see some beneficial rains with generally higher
amounts across N Central FL -vs- srn sections.

Tue night...Pcpn and an evening storm or two will end from N-S
Tue night as a front sweeps rapidly Ewd over the area. Scattered
precip and possibly a storm will remain possible mainly from
S Brevard Co south to lake Okeechobee during Tue evening before deep
drying accompanied psg of the cold front in the overnight. Temps in
the M-U50s can be expected by daybreak Wed.

Wed-Sat...Dry, breezy to windy & cooler conditions will occur behind
the front Wed then remaining on the dry and pleasantly cooler side
mid to late week as ridge across the central U.S. shifts gradually
eastward and maintains a predominantly northerly component flow
across the area. Highs will generally range from the upper 60s to mid
70s, with lows again dropping into the 40s Wed and Thu nights. High
pressure then shifts offshore of the Southeast U.S. coast into the
weekend with flow veering to the south Saturday, which will warm
temperatures to more seasonable values around 80-83.

Another front approaching the area around Sunday looks to introduce
a rain chance at least to the Northernmost portions of central FL as
the boundary approaches the area during the day.


.AVIATION...Patchy fog/stratus moving eastward into far interior
areas may produce a brief period of IFR/MVFR conditions from 11-13Z
for mainly KLEE/KISM. Otherwise cig/vis reductions will be limited
to decaying band of convection that potentially may move southward
into northern terminals this morning, and with additional showers
and isolated storms pushing eastward across areas mainly north of
the Treasure Coast this afternoon. Have limited mention to VCSH in
the TAFs for now, but may need to add some tempo groups for some of
this activity with 12Z update.


Today-Tonight...A brief switch and surge of winds from the N/NW may
occur across the Volusia waters past sunrise, should outflow from a
band of weakening showers and storms move into this area. Otherwise
winds will generally be out of the W/SW through tonight, with wind
speeds increasing to 15-20 knots offshore late this afternoon and
into tonight. Seas will range from 1-3 feet today to 2-4 feet into

Tue-Wed...Marine conditions over the open waters will experience a
notable increase in winds Tue as offshore flow strengthens ahead of
an approaching cold front that will cross the waters late Tuesday
night. Westerly winds increasing to around 20-25 knots are forecast
as this boundary moves through, becoming W/NW behind the front into
Wed-Thu. The stronger offshore component to the winds will keep
highest seas offshore, up 6 feet Tuesday night and up to 7-8 feet
into late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Brief gusts to gale force
will be possible well offshore Wed.

Winds are expected to diminish from Thu-late week with NW winds
countering the Gulf Stream and keeping seas choppy with lingering
headlines for caution over a portion of the waters into late Thu or


Today...No low RH concerns anticipated today as moisture continues
to increase in W/SW low level flow across the area.

Notable drying will hold off until at least Wed behind the passing
cold front. Dry conditions will become re-established over the area
for the mid to late week and into the weekend. Wed looks to be the
windiest day so hopefully widespread rain will precede the wind
event on Tue.


DAB  81  66  83  55 /  60  30  70  10
MCO  84  69  84  55 /  40  10  70  20
MLB  86  69  87  56 /  30  10  70  30
VRB  86  68  87  60 /  20  10  60  30
LEE  82  70  83  55 /  60  30  80  10
SFB  83  68  83  57 /  50  10  70  10
ORL  84  68  83  56 /  50  10  70  10
FPR  87  66  86  56 /  20  10  50  30





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