Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 160220
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
920 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front pushing through the FL Big Bend/nrn peninsula this evng
is doing so with little fanfare and no precip.  Evng RAOBs show
sparse moisture acrs the state with PWat values running btwn 0.75"-
1.00" ahead of the frontal boundary and arnd 1.00" acrs it.  Much of
this moisture, however, is in the form a mixed mid/upr lvl cloud
deck as the KTAE/KJAX soundings revealed.

RAP40 analysis shows the mean flow acrs the frontal boundary backs
from W/NW thru H100-H70 to W/SW thru H85-H50.  This will ensure a
slow but steady fropa overnight with some increase in clouds along
and north of the I-4 Corridor...south of I-4, skies will be mostly
clear.  Sfc dewpoints in the 50s areawide will keep overnight temps
a few deg abv avg, particularly along and north of I-4 where
increasing cloud cover will reduce radiational cooling.

Aftn fcst package looks good, no updates necessary this evng.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 17/00Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 16/05Z...N of KISM-KTIX W/NW 4-7KTS bcmg N/NW 3-
5KTS...S of KISM-KTIX S/SW 4-7kts bcmg W/NW AOB 3KTS.  Btwn 16/09Z-
16/12Z...N of KISM-KTIX bcmg N/NE 4-6KTS.  Btwn 16/12Z-16/15Z...S of
KISM-KTIX bcmg N/NE 4-6KTS.  Btwn 16/15Z-16/18Z bcmg NE 6-10KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: VFR all sites.  N of KMLB-KISM cigs btwn FL040-060.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front will push acrs the lcl Atlc overnight.  Little
overall impact outside of a wind shift from W/SW to NW with the
frontal passage...winds remaining a light to gentle breeze nearshore
and gentle to moderate offshore.  Fetch protected seas will range
from 1-2FT nearshore and 2-3FT offshore, with ocnl wind chop in the
Gulf Stream.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Radar/Impact WX.......Pendergrast



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