Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 180012
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
612 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Updated aviation section for 00z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

We`re seeing the last remnants of rain depart our eastern counties
this afternoon. However, time/height cross sections show saturated
lower trop/esp below 850 mb, to the surface, so anticipate a
nightfall of low clouds/drizzle/fog. This should wane starting
early tmrw, as some drier air in the column works in from the
west, and dissipates drizzle if not the clouds by the pm hours.
Temps warm as well, returning to the 50s for highs, with maybe
some sunshine helping them into the 60s by Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Mid week rain chances affect mainly our southern counties, and the
warm environment we inherit shows no signs of diminishing so all
liquid pcpn is expected. Some modeling hints at elevated
instability sufficient to support thunder, but SPC must be waiting
on a stronger and more consistent signal in this regard, with
their day 3 general risk well to the south. Temps stay seasonally
mild in the 50s thru the workweek, which ends dry.

The next pcpn on the horizon comes with the weekend system, and it
will feature our next punch of cooler air, so it leads to the
possibility of some mixed or frozen pcpn. The builder suggests a
liquid event Friday evening, transitioning to snow/before ending,
mainly across our north, late Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Light qpf/little chance for accumulations, at least with
this package look. The main impact is temps cool, closer to
seasonal norms, for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 612 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Low MVFR/IFR cigs will become predominantly IFR by 06z, with
occasional dips to LIFR. With the lowering cigs, vsbys will become
MVFR to IFR through daybreak with fog/drizzle. Cigs will gradually
improve to MVFR through the day, with vsbys improving to VFR
during the afternoon hours. Winds will be out of the south at 5kts
or less overnight, becoming southwest at 5 to 10 kts after 14z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST



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