Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 161118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
618 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Widespread high clouds continue to stream northeastward across the
region early this morning. Clouds inhibit frost formation, even
when temperatures fall into the mid 30s. Some patchy frost is
still likely along the Interstate 64 corridor early this morning,
but the primary frost concern has shifted to Wednesday night.

High clouds will continue to stream northeast today, associated
with the moist southern branch of the jet. Some global models
such as the gfs and Canadian bring rain to the doorstep of
western KY this afternoon. The high-res models are not as
aggressive with the northward advance of the rain. In any case,
extensive cloudiness today will limit high temps to the mid 50s in
most areas. The forecast will remain dry.

Cloudiness will depart our region tonight as the upper level flow
becomes more westerly. Low temps will generally be around 40.

On Wednesday, a strong high pressure system with a central
pressure over 1030 mb will advance southeast into the upper
Mississippi Valley. This high will bring abundant sunshine.
Highs will range from the upper 50s in sw Indiana to the mid 60s
in the Ozark foothills.

Frost is a concern Wednesday night as the center of the high
moves across Illinois. The primary area of concern is northeast of
a kcgi/kpah/khop line, where winds are the most likely to die off
and skies will be clear. The air mass will be somewhat drier than
the air mass currently over our region early this morning.

The high pressure system will bring sunny and cool conditions for
Thursday, with highs in the upper 50s. The high will retreat off
to the east Thursday night, allowing clouds to advance from the
west. A small chance of rain exists later Thursday night in some

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

The medium range models indicated that a mid level ridge over the
southeastern U.S. will be eventually overtaken by a northern stream
longwave trof in the extended forecast period. This will affect the
eastern half of the country. On Fri, with the approach of a mid
level shortwave and surface cold front, the GFS continued to
introduce warm advection QPF early, at least 12 hrs ahead of the
ECMWF and the CMC models, with initially lower mid level heights
over the PAH forecast area. There appeared to be increasing
differences amongst the GEFS members by then. The initialization
blend suggested that there will be a rapid ramp-up of PoPs/QPF from
the west after sunrise Fri, which seemed reasonable. Minor QPF is
forecast, and no lightning. The models agreed better on the timing
of surface fropa, which should be early Sat, accompanied by a
cessation of pcpn and rapid clearing.

Our region will be under strong northwesterly flow aloft and high
surface pressure through the weekend, providing brisk northwesterly
winds on Sat post-frontal, followed by lesser winds on Sun, and
sunny/starlit skies. Perhaps the effects of the wind on Sat will be
negated somewhat by somewhat warmer temps (mostly in the lower half
of the 60s). Sun will be cooler by 6 or 7 degrees with the full
effect of the surface high centered nearby. A moisture-starved cold
front will approach our region on Mon, putting us in a shallow warm
advection pattern (southerly winds only in the lowest levels),
resulting in a slight uptick in highs. Development of frost is quite
possible Sun and Mon mornings, mainly east of the MS River. However,
this far out there was enough variance in guidance temps to not
include it in the forecast for that time period. Traditionally,
frost forecasts were only given out to perhaps the third period


Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Widespread high clouds will be persistent for much of today,
followed by clearing tonight. Except for a little early morning fog
at kpah, vfr conditions will continue through tonight. Winds will be
light and variable as high pressure dominates our region.


IL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078.

IN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for INZ081-082.



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