Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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118
FXUS64 KSJT 180942
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
442 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another outflow boundary across the Big Country and Heartland may
trigger a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
with the TTUWRF suggesting they may be farther south than what we
saw on Friday. Will add a slight chance of convection to the
Abilene, Sweetwater, and Brownwood areas. Better area of convection
expected farther west across the South Plains and Permian Basin this
evening, perhaps shifting as far east as the western portions of the
Concho Valley after midnight. Will add a mention of isolated storms
in these areas as well.

Otherwise, another hot day with afternoon highs again climbing into
the mid and upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across
the western Concho Valley and Big Country as suggested by a few of
the convective allowing models. Temperatures will once again rise
into the mid to upper 90`s under partly cloudy skies. Rain chances
increase Sunday night and into Monday as a deepening low pressure
system over the Plains sends a weak cold front into west Texas.
Will continue to advertise a chance of showers and thunderstorms
for most of the area for Sunday night and Monday. A few isolated
showers or thunderstorms storms may linger into Tuesday across
southern portions of the area before the front washes out.
Otherwise, temperatures will be a bit cooler on Monday, with
highs generally in the lower 90s.

Going into the middle to latter part of next week, model guidance
continues diverge on the large scale pattern. The GFS keeps the
center of the upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest...with
disturbances in the northerly flow aloft triggering showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF, however, centers
the ridge axis over west Texas resulting in dry conditions and
temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. With low confidence
this far out will continue with just a slight chance of PoPs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  97  75  97  72 /  20  20  20  40
San Angelo  99  74  97  73 /   0  10  10  40
Junction  98  74  97  74 /   0   0   5  10
Brownwood  98  74  97  74 /  20  10  10  40
Sweetwater  96  74  96  72 /  20  20  20  50
Ozona       96  72  94  72 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07/42



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