Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 200438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1138 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Early this afternoon, a compact surface low pressure system was
centered over the western Missouri/Arkansas boarder.  This feature
has been the main weather maker today with rainfall totals across
northeast Kansas ranging anywhere from a quarter of an inch up to
two inches.  Rain has decreased in coverage this afternoon as this
system continues to push eastward; however, another shortwave moves
through the northern and central Plains tonight providing another
source for lift and additional precipitation early this evening
through early tomorrow.  Any additional accumulations are expected
to be light and remain in the form of rain with the exception of far
north central Kansas where a rain/snow mix will be possible at
temperatures fall overnight.  No accumulation is expected with any
snow that falls.

Models shunt all precipitation east of the area by tomorrow
afternoon except in far north eastern Kansas where some light rain
will be possible through the afternoon.  Skies will begin to clear
from west to east Tuesday afternoon with highs only slightly warmer
than those of today in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

By Tuesday night, northwest flow aloft has set up over the area with
surface low pressure building across the southern and central Plains
through the day.  Dry conditions are expected with a bit of a warm
up Wednesday as winds begin to gain a southerly component as the
high shifts eastward of Kansas.  This warming trend will continue
both Thursday and Friday as return flow aids in warm air advection
in northeast Kansas.  Some gustier winds may be seen Friday along
with these warmer temperatures (into the 70s) as surface low
pressure deepens on the lee side of the Rockies in Colorado.

The GFS brings some chances for precipitation Friday afternoon with
a shortwave, but the better chances look to be late Friday night
into early Saturday as a lead shortwave moves across the central
Plains.  This shortwave ahead of a deep upper level system off the
coast of the Pacific Northwest will move the aforementioned surface
low across Kansas on Saturday bringing chances for some rain and
thunderstorms.  Additional chances for precipitation come Sunday as
the main trough axis pivots over the northern Plains.  The ECMWF is
much more robust with this system keeping a deep closed low by
Sunday night, while the GFS shifts this system into an open wave by
the same time.  This system will need to continue to be watched and
the forecast fine-tuned in the upcoming days.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Timing and persistence of lower cloud is still the main challenge.
IFR cigs are present in a narrow, slow-moving area not far west of
the terminals. Have sped up timing of lower cloud a bit, faster
than most guidance, and in turn have a slightly faster improving
trend after 12Z, but IFR cigs still look to be limited to MHK. Any
precip looks to remain very light and brief, primarily at MHK
very early.




LONG TERM...Heller
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