948
FXUS61 KBTV 091944
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Any lingering rain showers will move out tonight and that should be
the last of the rain before next week. High pressure will remain in
control through the weekend and it will bring plentiful sunshine.
Temperatures will start off slightly below normal tomorrow before
rising well above normal for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 PM EDT Monday...A shortwave is bringing some showers to the
region this afternoon but they will slowly move out to the east and
dissipate this evening. There is the possibility for a couple
embedded thunderstorms over parts of northern New York, but any
storm would be very isolated. The CAPE is minimal and a subtle
inversion in the mid-levels will make it hard for any storms to grow
tall enough. However, there has been just enough instability to
cause a couple isolated cells today and there could be a couple more
this evening. The shower activity will be most pronounced over
northern New York and southern Vermont. Clouds will erode later in
the night and set the stage for a sunny Tuesday. Boundary layer
winds should die down late tonight, and combined with moisture from
today`s rainfall, the ingredients will be in place for patchy fog
formation. High pressure will build into the region tomorrow and
bring a classic early fall day, with highs in the 60s and low 70s,
and mostly sunny skies. Winds will go calm tomorrow night and
extensive fog formation in the climatologically favored valleys is
likely. Lows will drop back into the the 40s in most places though
the coldest hollows in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom will
likely fall into the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 344 PM EDT Monday...Fantastic early fall weather will continue
into the latter half of the week as ridging keeps hold across the
region. Clouds will increase from the west Wednesday with partly
sunny skies to prevail on Thursday as a weak upper shortwave crosses
overhead, but no precipitation is expected. Wednesday will also be
the cooler of the two days, though still very pleasant with highs in
the lower to mid 70s. Thursday`s highs should be about 5 degrees
warmer, mainly in the mid 70s to around 80F. Lows will mainly be in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 344 PM EDT Monday...High pressure will remain in control right
through the weekend and into early next week, with no precipitation
expected. Only potential fly in the ointment will be a weak upper
shortwave and associated cold front which will sink south across the
region Thursday night and Friday. Moisture profiles are meager, so
don`t anticipate much beyond some increased cloud cover, but can`t
totally rule out few sprinkles across the higher terrain of the
northern Greens/Northeast Kingdom. Otherwise, we remain well
entrenched under the ridge through the weekend, then it starts to
shift eastward on Monday. Highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s
each day, and dewpoints will generally remain comfortably in the
50s. Good sleeping weather is on tap as well with lows mainly in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Some showers will move through this
afternoon and one or two of them could be heavy enough to reduce
visibilities to MVFR. The risk for thunder is low but it cannot
be ruled out at SLK. The rain showers will move out this
evening. Ceilings will lower a bit this evening and they could
reach MVFR at any of the terminals. Ceilings will scatter out
later tonight. Fog development is likely at SLK later tonight
while it is possible at MPV, EFK or MSS. The fog lifts by mid
morning and VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the day.
Winds will be out of the southwest today and gusts will reach
between 10-20 KTs. Winds will drop off quickly this evening
before increasing a little during the day tomorrow. However,
they will stay lighter than today.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Myskowski