342
FXUS61 KBTV 122333
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
733 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather this afternoon will give way to a brief period of
dry weather overnight. The unsettled weather continues with a warm
front moving through on Monday, followed by a cold front Tuesday
bringing chances for thunderstorms. Seasonal high temperatures and
mild overnight lows are expected for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 711 PM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains in good shape. Based
on the latest hi-res guidance, satellite data and webcam
observations, slightly lowered the overnight temperatures and
sky cover. The latter is of particular interest for folks hoping
to get another viewing of the ongoing G4 geomagnetic storm. It
does appear that there should be a few hours of clearing as
upper ridging briefly builds into the region out ahead of the
next disturbance that would arrive by the pre dawn into early
morning hours. Fingers crossed for mostly clear skies and happy
aurora viewing!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers across the
region this afternoon will begin to dissipate this evening with
the lack of surface heating. A brief period of shortwave ridging
will build over the region during the overnight, bringing some
dry weather and some breaks in the clouds. Given the recent
rainfall this afternoon and calm winds expected overnight, fog
development may be possible if skies are able to clear, with the
greatest chances across northern New York. Overnight lows
tonight will be near seasonal normals, with temperatures in the
40s.

After the short dry-period, clouds will overspread the region Monday
morning ahead of a warm front that brings the next round of
unsettled weather. Temperatures during the day will warm into the
60s, with enough instability that a rumble or two of thunder is
possible during the afternoon into the evening hours. The best
forcing for showers will be found across northern New York,
especially heading into the evening. Precipitation amounts for
Monday are generally a few tenths of an inch, with more measurable
precipitation expected Tuesday. With the abundant cloud cover and
lingering precipitation, overnight lows Monday night will be mild
with temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 341 PM EDT Sunday...North stream and southern stream troughing
will slowly drag a boundary through the North Country Tuesdays.
Forcing is not great, but temperatures in broader valleys will
likely warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s with the cooler
temperature towards the Canadian border. This marginal surface
instability and steepening lapse rates aloft will support some
isolated thunderstorm chances along and south of the boundary mainly
Tuesday afternoon through midnight. Overnight, upper troughing picks
up speed ushering the surface boundary through Northern New York
into southern Vermont. Total rainfall amounts continue to be
expected in the 0.5-0.75" range in general; higher end totals in
areas of convection could exceed 1". Without a strong thermal
contrast, temperature will stay mild through Wednesday with highs in
the mid/upper 60s, shower chances diminishing, and winds turning out
of the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 341 PM EDT Sunday...Main feature Wednesday night through
Thursday night continues to be relative ridging with maximum
amplitude Thursday. Model depiction of the longwave amplitude is low
across eastern Canada/US favoring continued high clouds and steadily
warming temperatures during daytime cloud breaks. Daily highs in
upper 60s to low 70 are probable to persist into the weekend. Next
precipitation chances return by late Friday through the weekend with
guidance showing the next trough passing south, but in the vicinity
of the North Country.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Showers are gradually diminishing and
moving south of our area this evening. towards 00Z Monday, with
VFR conditions prevailing overnight. Drier air will slowly work
its way into the area overnight allowing for SCT080-100. There
is one fly in the ointment...with the recent rainfall, there is
the possibility of some patchy fog overnight if skies clear out,
particularly at KSLK. I`ve placed the possibility of MVFR-IFR
between 05-10z but confidence is not too high.

Next system with VFR/MVFR and scattered showers will move from
west to east starting in the St Lawrence Vly ard 15-16z and
reaching central VT by 20-22z.

Calm/light winds overnigth will become SSE at 6-11 knots ard/aft
12z with some gustiness in the Champlain Valley aft 16z.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Chai/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer/SLW