Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 292002
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
402 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region tonight with scattered
showers and embedded thunderstorms expected. A few stronger storms
will be capable of brief gusty winds, localized heavy down pours,
and some lightning. Cooler and drier weather returns for Thursday,
before temperatures warm back into the mid 80s to lower 90s on
Friday ahead of our next system. Showers with embedded rumbles of
thunder are possible late Friday into Saturday, before drier weather
returns for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 402 PM EDT Wednesday...Water vapor shows mid/upper lvl trof
acrs the eastern Great Lakes with embedded s/w energy over central
Lake Ontario as sfc cold frnt moves acrs our fa. Air mass ahead of
this boundary features temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s with dwpts
in the 50s, creating sfc based CAPE values in the 800-1200 J/kg per
LAPS analysis. VAD profile at BUF indicates 700mb winds increasing
to 35 to 40 knots, as gradient sharpens ahead of approaching trof,
which wl increase deep layer shear in the 35 to 45 knots acrs our
fa. Given the above parameters, along with steep sfc to 700mb lapse
rates >9.0 C/km and high cloud bases, any stronger storms wl be
capable of localized wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range. The best
interaction of shear/instability and dynamics wl be acrs from the
eastern dacks into parts of central/northern VT, including the NEK.
Have continued with gusty wind wording and would not be surprised of
a few reports of pea size hail with cooling thermal profiles
associated with approaching trof.

Showers/storms wl exit fa by 03z with just some lingering light rain
showers possible with secondary trof passage around 06z. Soundings
indicate some low clouds over the trrn developing as flow becomes
north-northwest behind boundary and moisture is trapped below
subsidence inversion. Eventually some clearing develops with patchy
fog/br possible, given saturated bl conditions and light winds,
especially northern NY into parts of northern VT. Temps fall back
into the upper 40s to mid 50s most locations.

Thursday-Thursday Night...Quiet period of wx anticipated with sfc
high pres building acrs our fa. Have noted a small chc of an
isolated showers on Thurs Night over the SLV associated with waa
pattern. A beautiful Thurs is on tap with comfortable temps and
increasing amounts of sunshine. Progged 925mb temps warm btwn 16C-
19C, supporting highs mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Thurs night range
from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Have noted increase south/southwest
gradient developing aft 00z, which should keep temps on the mild
side.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 402 PM EDT Wednesday...Still expecting warm, southwest flow to
usher in above normal temperatures for Friday with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Southwest winds will be breezy, especially
within the Saint Lawrence Valley with gusts up to 30 mph. This will
precede the arrival of a frontal boundary Friday night. Ahead of the
front, model guidance indicates CAPE values of 200-800 J/kg along
with increasing shear as wind speeds increase aloft. Ultimately,
this means that we could see some locally strong thunderstorms
develop Friday afternoon ahead of the front, though forcing is
almost limited, meaning that any thunderstorm activity will likely
develop over the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Green
Mountains. At this time, the bulk of rain still looks to arrive
Friday night and continuing through Saturday morning. The potential
remains for heavy rain due to lingering elevated instability, PWAT
values in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range, and the front parallel to the
mid/upper level flow. However, the front is expected to be rather
weak as it will be far displaced from the parent surface low and the
upper-level low. Therefore, in the absence of strong synoptic
support, heavy rain will likely be restricted to convective
activity. Still, expect rainfall totals ranging from 0.1 to 0.5
inches and locally higher amounts. Overnight low temperatures Friday
into Saturday will be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 402 PM EDT Wednesday...Drier air will move in behind the
retreating front and rain is expected to drift south of the forecast
area by Saturday afternoon. A cool, dry pattern will then take hold
thereafter as surface high pressure remains situated across the
Northeast for the remainder of the holiday weekend. The one
exception will be Sunday afternoon, with model guidance now showing
a weak boundary passing through the northwest flow. This is not
expected to result in more than mountain sprinkles if anything.
Temperatures will return to near normal values for the weekend with
highs in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Chances for rain return early to midweek as shortwaves descend upon
the Northeast, though significant differences remain among the suite
of global guidance so have stuck with a model blend for now.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Sfc analysis places cold front near the
Ottawa Valley with broken line of showers approaching MSS, while
all sites are experiencing VFR conditions. Breezy southwest
winds 5 to 15 knots are expected thru this aftn. As showers
continue to develop and intensity a brief period of MVFR
cigs/vis wl be possible, along with localized gusty winds in
and near storms of 20 to 30 knots. Best potential wl be acrs
our northern TAF sites from KMSS to KSLK to KBTV to KEFK btwn
20z and 02z. A weak secondary boundary dropping over may produce
another round of light showers late this evening, before winds
shift to the northwest by 06z and CIGS lower to MVFR/IFR at
MPV/SLK and EFK. A period of IFR cigs/vis is also possible at
MSS in fog/br toward sunrise on Thursday. VFR quickly develops
at all sites by 14z Thurs, as drier air moves acrs our taf
sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Hammond
AVIATION...Taber


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