Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 220522

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
122 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Slow-moving low pressure will pass south of New England tonight,
spreading clouds and periods of light snow overnight across
southeastern Vermont. Any accumulations will be light, with a
dusting to an inch possible in the Connecticut River Valley.
High pressure will otherwise bring mainly dry weather over the
next 5 to 7 days. Temperatures will be near to slightly below
normal through the first half of the weekend, before moderating
above normal into the early to mid portion of next week.


As of 118 AM EDT Thursday...Snow is having a hard time making
much northward progress at this hour as north winds are keeping
the drier air well established across the region. Noted that
much of the latest hi-res guidance shows little to no snow
accumulation through the remainder of the overnight period.
Don`t want to jump on that quite yet as there is snow upstream,
but did lower PoPs and snow amounts just a bit. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track and no other changes were needed.

Prior discussion...
Relatively quiet period of weather with just south-central VT
feeling the fringe effects of offshore low with periods of light
snow possible tonight. Snow amounts of a dusting to one inch
are expected in Windsor county VT, with little or no
accumulation elsewhere.

Afternoon 2-m dewpoints are only in the teens across the North
Country, with dry northerly trajectories from strong sfc
anticyclone across wrn Quebec and northern Ontario. This dry
northerly airstream will preclude much of a northward push of
snowfall into our forecast area, despite the ongoing mid-upper
level overcast.

Good model consensus, including high-resolution NWP suite, on
sfc low track just south of 40N 70W benchmark around 09Z/Thu,
and eventually out to sea south of Nova Scotia during the day on
Thursday. Seeing just some potential light snow on far nwrn
fringe of precipitation shield reaching into Windsor Co. and
the srn Greens along the U.S. Route 4 corridor, mainly 06-12Z.
Any impact will be minimal, with snow accumulations only a
dusting to an inch possible. Elsewhere, will see a mid-high
level overcast, except some partially clear periods across far
nrn NY. With this in mind, should see lows in the teens across
nrn NY, but in the 23-27F range across VT with clouds mitigating
radiative cooling. Winds overnight will generally remain
northerly at 5-9mph, except locally NE in the St. Lawrence

Will see somewhat stronger daytime winds on Thursday with
steepening lapse rates and moderate p-gradient on back side of
departing low south of Nova Scotia. Should see winds N winds
10-15mph, with gusts 20-25 mph during the afternoon hrs with
best mixing. Daytime highs on Thursday generally 34-38F with
variably cloudy skies, and a few mountain flurries.

A weak mid-level trough in WNW flow will settle to our south
and west across wrn/central NY during Thursday night. May see
some increasing clouds across nrn NY with 20-30% chance of snow
showers in the Adirondacks. Again, limited low-level moisture,
so little or no accumulation forecast. Lows Thursday night
mainly in the low-mid 20s.


As of 316 PM EDT Wednesday...The end of the week and weekend
will be largely dominated by a broad upper trough over the
northeast, with several piece of shortwave energy moving near or
over the region. First shortwave passes south of the forecast
area Friday with perhaps a few light snow showers across
northern New York, but dry elsewhere. Second shortwave looks to
pass directly over the region Saturday/Saturday night with a
better chance for more scattered snow showers across the region,
but with the lack of any strong forcing or deep layer moisture,
we`re not looking at any real accumulations more than a dusting
from whatever falls. Skies through the period are generally
cloudy with a few breaks of sun possible during Saturday and
Sunday afternoons. Temps will be just a tad below normal, with
highs ranging through the 30s and lows in the mid teens to low


As of 316 PM EDT Wednesday...The aforementioned upper trough
finally looks to exit east of the region late Sunday into Sunday
night as a high amplitude upper ridge and surface high pressure
build in from the west-northwest. Skies will trend towards
clear Sunday night and remain sunny/clear through Monday night
before high pressure shifts east and southerly return flow
brings some clouds and warmer temperatures back to the region
for Tuesday. With clear skies and light winds expected, both
Sunday and Monday nights will be quite chilly for late March
with lows persisting in the teens and 20s. Highs Tuesday finally
bounce back above normal with 925mb temps rising above 0C
supporting highs in the 40s to potentially near 50 at KBTV.
Temps should remain mild Tuesday night in the 20s and 30s as
south-southwesterly flow persists and clouds increase further in
advance of an approaching low pressure system which could bring
our first round of spring showers on Wednesday.


Through 06Z Friday...TAFs will remain predominantly VFR
throughout the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will remain in
place as a coastal low pivots offshore. This cloud cover should
be the extent of the impacts our TAF sites see from this low,
though can`t rule out a few flurries at RUT through 12z this
morning. Ceilings will lower to around 4000 ft after 00z Fri as
an upper trough approaches from the eastern Great Lakes. Winds
overnight at all TAF sites will generally be 5-10 knots from the
north, however wind speeds will pick up during the daytime
tomorrow. Expect N to NE winds at 10-15 kts with some gusts up
to 25 kts during the afternoon hours.


Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
Saturday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.




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LONG TERM...Lahiff
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