Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 250837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
437 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

High pressure building in behind a departing cold front will bring
cool, dry and increasingly sunny conditions to the North Country
today. Warmer temperatures return for Tuesday and Wednesday before
low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes brings widespread rain
Wednesday night through Thursday. Increasingly hot and humid
conditions are expected to develop Friday through the weekend.


As of 400 AM EDT Monday...High pressure continues to work into
the region from the north this morning with distinct clearing
noted on the latest available satellite imagery. Low level flow
remains blocked through mid-day though so while the lowest
clouds will scatter out this morning, lingering mid level
moisture and increasing northwest flow will lead to some
scattered fair weather cumulus forming across the higher terrain
of the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. Increasing
sunshine will also promote good mixing this afternoon with
surface winds gusting in the 20-30 mph through sunset. High
temps will be cool again in the upper 60s to low 70s.

High pressure settles over the region for tonight and Tuesday
with winds abating after sunset and clear skies expected
overnight. Excellent setup for radiational cooling tonight with
lows back in the 40s area-wide with some spot 30s in the
Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. Expect KSLK to act
accordingly and drop to freezing or just below, where some
localized frost is likely. Meanwhile, across eastern Vermont
expect some dense river valley fog to develop in the usual
spots. Tuesday will be pleasant with sunny skies and perhaps a
few cirrus in the afternoon along with a return of more seasonal
temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80.


As of 434 AM EDT Monday...Quiet weather overnight will slowly
start to become slightly more active Wednesday as a low
pressure system begins to move in from the Great Lakes. We`ll
see an increase in clouds during the day and temps will warm
into the upper 70s during the afternoon. Model guidance has
continued the slowing trend so I`d anticipate rain showers
starting to impact parts of Northern New York in the afternoon
to early evening but the rest of the Champlain Valley and
Vermont should relatively dry.


As of 434 AM EDT Monday...Active weather continues into the
evening hours Wednesday night as an upper level trough brings
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. A combination of high
pwat`s and slowish moving showers will lead to some brief but
moderately heavy rainfall. The lightning potential continues to
wane as most of the instability and stronger forcing is south of
the North Country. Current forecasts are a between a half to an
inch of rain across the basins. With the current state of
rivers and soil moisture we should be able absorb all of that
rainfall with no flooding threat. The showers will continue
well into Thursday night and so we`ll see a fairly prolonged
period of scattered rainfall.

Behind that system we`ll be unfortunately be staring down an
unpleasant couple of days. A broad high pressure system will
push unseasonably hot air towards the North Country and we`ll be
looking at the potential for a heat wave over the weekend. This
is a potentially dangerous event given the lack of air
conditioners for many across Northern New York and Vermont.
925mb temps warm to 28-30C Saturday-Monday with the 925mb temps
on Sunday from the GFS supporting nearly 100 degrees. With the
high heat will also come the potential for showers and
thunderstorms riding along the northern side of the ridge.
Because of the potential for those showers I`ve opted to stay
lower than 925mb temps support but higher than the deterministic
guidance. Either way it looks like we should reach heat wave
criteria of 3+ days of 90F from Saturday through Monday. So now
is a good time to make plans on how to deal with the excessive
heat that is potentially heading our way next weekend.


Through 06Z Tuesday...IFR ceilings and periods of MVFR vsby
will prevail through 12Z at KBTV/KMPV/KRUT/KSLK while VFR is
expected at KMSS/KPBG. After 12Z, areas of low stratus lift to
VFR with scattered fair weather cumulus developing mid-day from
the Adirondacks eastward. Winds will become increasingly gusty
mid-day as well, with gusts up to 24kts expected from the
Champlain Valley eastward. After 00Z, skies go SKC and winds


Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.




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