693
FXUS61 KBTV 161641
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1241 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and mild conditions will continue through the rest of
the weekend as a large low pressure system passes to our west.
This system will also bring widespread rain to the region. The
rain will combine with snowmelt due to the mild temperatures and
lead to sharp rises on area rivers and streams. This may cause
flooding, both due to open water and potential ice jams.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1238 PM EDT Sunday...No significant changes to the
forecast. Lowered QPF slightly with the newer guidance bringing
the heavy rain out of the region quicker after the frontal
passage and less rain on the backside Monday. However, it was
not a big enough change to be hydrologically significant. Winds
have begun to pick up in northern New York and the Champlain
Valley, with gusts in the 40-50 mph range observed in those
areas. These strong winds should continue intermittently for
most of the afternoon. Previous discussion follows.

A low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes will lift
northeastward as it passes our area, dragging a cold front
across our area overnight. This is a pretty progressive system.
Expect widespread rainfall, but front passes the area quickly
and rainfall totals have been lowered slightly to about 0.3-1.0
inches. Winds will be gusty today ahead of the frontal passage
out of the south. Some gusts to 50 mph are possible in Franklin
and St Lawrence counties in northern New York. Gusts to 40 are
possible elsewhere across our area. Maximum temperatures this
afternoon will reach the lower 60s to lower 70s, warmest in the
Champlain valley. These warm temperatures will lead to continued
snowmelt. The combination of snowmelt and rainfall are likely
to lead to some localized flooding. Much of today will be dry
except for the western part of our northern New York zones, you
can already see rain just west of our area on radar. The rain
will spread across our whole area overnight, and some weak
surface instability means there`s a slight chance for
thunderstorms. Areas that have convective activity could see
slightly higher rainfall totals. PWATs will approach or even
exceed 1.25 inches, which is near a climatological maximum for
mid March. Most of the rainfall will be overnight, and should be
mostly done by early Monday morning. Gusty winds will be
enhanced today due to 70+kt 850 mb jet passing overhead today.
Winds will be strongest on north facing slopes of the
Adirondacks as downsloping increases the gusts. Widespread gusts
of 30 to 40 mph expected. As cold front crosses the area
overnight temperatures will drop into the lower 30s across
northern New York, but range through the 40s in Vermont where it
takes longer for the frontal passage to occur. Precipitation
comes to an end on Monday, though lingers longest in eastern
Vermont. Maximum temperatures on Monday will range from the
lower 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Sunday...Clearing skies and lightening winds
Monday night will cause temperatures to fall below freezing area
wide, but the airmass will not be cold enough for temperatures
to even fall below climatological normals. Minimum temperatures
will range from the teens in the colder spots of the Dacks to
around 30 along Lake Champlain. Tuesday will mainly be dry with
temperatures remaining above seasonal normals for mid March,
highs range from upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 308 AM EDT Sunday...Mid to late week will feature above
average temperatures due to high pressure and upper level
ridging and another closed upper low approaching from the west,
advecting in warmer air from the south/southwest. Highs are
forecast to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s and lows increasing
from around 30 to around 40 Tuesday night through Thursday.

Troughing and a surface frontal system will bring a cold front
through the forecast area late week, and deterministic global
models are beginning to come into better agreement on the
arrival time. Best chance of precipitation occurring for
northern New York and Vermont will be Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night/early Friday morning. Exact timing of the
front`s arrival on Thursday afternoon will determine how high
our temperatures can reach that day.

Ensembles continue to indicate about a 40-60% chance of 0.5
inches or more of precipitation within 24 hours. Chances of an
inch or more of precipitation looks unlikely but not out of the
question with about 10-20% chances. Dew points are only forecast
to reach the 30s, so there should be much less snowmelt than
with the previous event, and by this point, most of the snowpack
outside the mountains should be gone anyway. Temperatures drop
to seasonable levels behind this system and this colder pattern
looks to remain into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Winds are gusting 15-25 knots out of the
south at a few sites this morning, and gusty winds are expected
to become more widespread across the sites in the coming hours.
Southerly winds will be gusting 20-40 knots at all sites by
about 14Z-18Z Sunday. These gusty winds will continue until
around 02Z-06Z Monday as the low level jet pulls away to the
east. Frequent low level wind shear will be a concern through
this time period as well. Rain showers are forecast to move
through the area starting by Sunday 21Z to Monday 01Z, moving
west to east along a cold front, exiting by about 02Z- 10Z
Monday. These showers could be heavy at times, or even bring a
rumble of thunder, and may result in visibilities around 3-5
miles, lower in heavy showers. Ceilings will also be on the
lowering trend, matching time with the showers` arrival but
staying down in some spots even after showers exit. Ceilings
look to fall to about 1300- 3000 feet above ground level for the
most part, though IFR ceilings are not out of the question,
particularly for MPV and EFK as the low ceilings get hung up in
eastern Vermont.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire area, from 8 am
Sunday to 8 pm Monday. Had noticeable rises on area rivers on
Saturday with very mild temperatures, and expect additional
rises today due to both snowmelt and rainfall. Rainfall amounts
have come down slightly, though we`re still expecting a general
0.3 to 1.0 inch. Snowmelt is still the main concern and will be
the primary contributing factor. A widespread 1 to 2.5 inches of
SWE is expected, with some localized basins possibly
approaching 3 inches. More SWE is possible if the higher
elevations are able to lose more of their snowpack, but this
uncertain at this time. The good news is that this snowmelt is
occurring over 48 hours or so, though the bulk will be Sunday
and Sunday night.

The period of rainfall looks to be relatively brief, mainly
Sunday afternoon into the evening hours, though some will linger
into the day on Monday, particularly in eastern VT. This
combined with the aforementioned snowmelt will produce sharp
rises late Sunday into Sunday night, and this is when the
greatest flood risk will be. Smaller, flashier streams and
mountain creeks will respond more quickly, and it should be
noted that these will be running high from now right through the
weekend. So they should be watched closely as minor flooding
will be possible along these waterways. Mainstem rivers will
respond more slowly, with the fastest rises Sunday night. Ice
movement will be possible from here on out, though especially
Sunday and Sunday night. Luckily, ice has been sitting and
rotting over the past 10 days or so, and any remaining ice
cover, including ice jams, are likely fairly weak. Therefore,
when the ice moves, while some brief jams are possible,
significant flooding is not expected at this time.

Right now, we have four river gages/mainstem rivers forecasted
to exceed flood stage. These are the Otter Creek at Center
Rutland, the Mad River at Moretown, the Missisquoi River near
North Troy, and the East Branch of the Ausable River near
Ausable Forks. With the exception of the Otter Creek, should
crest Monday morning, generally about a foot above flood stage.
Otter Creek will be a little slower to crest, but should do so
Monday evening.

Given all the above, the Flood Watch remains in effect for
Sunday through Monday. Anyone that lives, works, or travels
along waterways, including mainstem rivers and smaller streams,
needs to remain alert for changing water levels over the next
couple of days.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Several records are in jeopardy this weekend with unseasonably
warm temperatures expected as well as rainfall. Below are
several of the records that may be broken.

Record High Temperatures:

March 16:
KMSS: 63/1990


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 16:
KBTV: 41/2012
KPBG: 41/1973
KSLK: 42/1990

March 20:
KPBG: 40/2022


Record Precipitation:

March 16:
KMSS: 0.44/1994

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through Monday evening for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026-027-029-
     030-087.
     Flood Watch through Monday evening for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm
HYDROLOGY...Neiles
CLIMATE...Neiles