Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 231942
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
342 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through Saturday morning, which will
bring a few rain showers and falling temperatures through the
weekend behind the front. After a dry and seasonably cold
Sunday, wet weather will arrive by Monday morning across the
entire area. Temperatures will stay below normal during most of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EDT Friday...Was overall a very warm and breezy day
today for the North Country, with highs in the low to mid 70s
across northern NY and the Champlain Valley. Meanwhile east of
the Greens, onshore southerly flow led to persistent marine
stratus which has kept central and eastern Vermont in the upper
50s to mid 60s today. Southerly winds with some gusts 15 to 25
mph this afternoon will weaken some this evening, then
strengthen again towards midnight as a southwesterly low-level
jet moves overhead. Temperatures will decrease through the night
tonight, but lows will still be relatively mild in the mid to
upper 50s for much of Vermont and the Champlain Valley of NY.
Low stratus clouds over eastern Vermont are expected to once
again thicken and lower tonight. Meanwhile, a front will
approach from the west overnight which will spread some mid and
low-level clouds over northern NY during the early morning hours
of Saturday. The front will be somewhere in the vicinity of the
Saint Lawrence Valley around sunrise, thus lows will be colder
in the Saint Lawrence Valley than elsewhere Saturday morning. As
the front moves eastward during the late morning hours of
Saturday, temperatures will continue to drop over the northern
Adirondacks and the Champlain Valley, and high temperatures will
be observed early in the day before the boundary goes through.
There will be some rain associated with the frontal passage.
Rain will start shortly after midnight over northern NY, then
diminish into just some light showers as the front progresses
eastward into Vermont during the late morning hours. Despite the
expected showers with the frontal passage, Saturday will by no
means be a washout, and total QPF amounts will only be in the
0.01 to 0.25 inch range. Highest amounts (generally 0.10 to 0.25
inch) are expected over the Saint Lawrence Valley into the
northern Adirondacks, along with the higher elevations of the
Green Mountains. Lower amounts (0.01 to 0.10 inches) are
expected in lower elevations of the Champlain Valley and eastern
Vermont.

The front will clear the area by Saturday evening, and skies will
generally trend less cloudy overnight.  There may be some low-level
moisture trapped near the surface which would lead to some low-
clouds overnight despite drier air moving in aloft.  However,
expecting most of the cloud cover to dissipate towards sunrise,
which would lead to rapid nocturnal heat loss with light winds as
high pressure builds in.  Overnight lows Saturday night will be in
the mid 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EDT Friday...Sunday is shaping up to be the coldest day
of the fall thus far as cold air continues to filter in behind the
cold front that moved through the region on Saturday. After seeing
morning lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, temperatures will struggle
to climb into the lower to mid 40s; even with filtered sunlight.
High pressure throughout the day should yield light winds and dry
weather but an increase in precipitation chances will be seen late
Sunday night as a shortwave tracks northeastward along the eastern
periphery of the positively tilted upper level trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Friday...A cold, rainy and snowy day is in store for
the North Country on Monday as a potent shortwave tracks across the
region. It looks like a burst of snow can be expected across
northern New York early Monday morning as all guidance shows the
vertical thermal profiles initially below freezing. As the morning
progresses, we will see a push of warm air advection between the 925
mb and 850 mb levels which may lead to a very brief transition to
freezing rain before changing over to rain. Snowfall looks less
likely to accumulate across Vermont given the timing of the precip
occurring after sunrise. Temperatures at the surface may hover
within a degree or two of freezing as precipitation starts but would
quickly changeover to rain with the only accumulations in Vermont
likely above 1500 ft. Even the higher terrain will transition to
rain by mid-afternoon. When all is said and done, a dusting to an
inch of snow will be common across northern New York with little to
no accumulation across Vermont. Rainfall totals will be pretty
decent given the strong dynamical forcing with anywhere from a
quarter to a half of an inch likely. Temperatures will be a little
tricky on Monday as rainfall and thick cloud cover will inhibit much
diurnal heating but a strong push of warm air advection should allow
our temps to rise into the mid 40s by late afternoon.

Rainfall will slowly taper off Monday night with another quick shot
of snow possible if temperatures can cool quick enough. This time,
no accumulating snowfall is expected as the duration of any snow
would be short and the intensity light. The remainder of the
upcoming week continues to look unsettled with a series of
disturbances tracking across the northeastern US. Each model run
varies from the last given that shortwaves are very difficult to
time and track in the extended period. Basically, periods of showers
(both rain and snow) look possible through next week as we see
temperatures remain around 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Generally observing VFR conditions across
the forecast area this afternoon, with the exception being lower
elevations of eastern Vermont that are seeing persistent low
stratus clouds. Only TAF site the stratus is impacting is KMPV
with MVFR ceilings, but expecting some temporary improvement to
VFR ceilings as low stratus clouds scatter out between 20Z and
00Z. Stratus clouds will thicken and lower over eastern Vermont
after 00Z, bringing MVFR ceilings to KMPV after 00Z. Elsewhere,
widespread VFR expected through 09Z. Ceilings will begin to
lower area-wide after 09Z as a front moves through, bringing
some scattered showers and MVFR/IFR ceilings between 09Z and
18Z.

Winds will be gusty from the south/southeast today through
tonight, especially over the Champlain Valley where strongest
gusts are expected. Gusty winds will diminish after 12Z
Saturday. Some areas of LLWS are expected overnight, mainly
between 06Z and 12Z, as a 40 to 50 kt southwesterly low-level
jet moves over the forecast area.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SN, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory continues for southerly winds with gusts
15 to 25 knots today on the Lake. Gusts will increase this
evening through tonight to around 30 knots, peaking in the early
morning hours. Waves will be 1-3 feet today, building to 3 to 5
feet tonight after midnight. Winds will begin to diminish
around sunrise Saturday morning.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Duell
MARINE...


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