195
FXUS61 KBTV 170748
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
348 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers are possible along the international border this
afternoon as a stationary boundary lifts north. Chances for showers
and a few rumbles of thunder increase tonight into Saturday as a
weak disturbance aloft passes through the region. Drier conditions
follow for Sunday and continue into early next week with
temperatures warming to summer-like levels in the 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...A nearly stationary boundary that has been
the focus for showers and thunderstorms the past few days will
finally lift north of the international border this morning as a
weak ridge of high pressure builds in. Some isolated showers and
maybe a rumble of thunder are possible close to the boundary across
north-central and northeast Vermont this afternoon, but coverage
should be fairly limited with a lack of any appreciable mid-level
moisture. Otherwise, mid/high clouds will be on the increase through
the day from west to east, but shouldn`t inhibit steep low-level
lapse rates from developing supporting warm air aloft to mix to the
surface and produce widespread highs in the mid 70s with locally
around 80 at KBTV.

Late in the day and into tonight, guidance has come into better
agreement as compared to yesterday supporting a weak mid-level
shortwave trough dropping into the region. With dry air in place it
will take some time to saturate the atmosphere enough to support
rain, with the best chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm
being across the western Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley through
midnight. Thereafter, guidance diverges in regard to the potential
for Atlantic moisture working inland on southeasterly flow
interacting with the aforementioned trough pushing eastward through
New England. The NAM3 and HRRR are quite aggressive with this
moisture producing widespread rain showers across much of Vermont
late tonight into Saturday, with some support from the ECMWF, while
the GDPS and GFS are basically dry. Considering this is a large
shift from yesterdays guidance, will just offer some low chance PoPs
for now, but this will need to be monitored by the next shift as
Saturday could end up much wetter. Low tonight should be similar to
this morning in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and depending on clouds and
precip, high Saturday could be as warm as the low/mid 70s if dry, or
stuck in the 60s if more precipitation develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...Saturday night and Sunday will feature
drier weather with warmer than normal temperatures. Surface and
upper level ridging over the area will lead to some sunshine as well
as temperatures warming into the upper 70s Sunday afternoon. Will
need to keep in mind potential for fog Saturday night with partial
clearing and light winds also. Precipitation chances are nil for
both Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Friday...Dry weather pattern with persistent warming
trend will continue into the first half of next week. Monday and
Tuesday will be quite warm as surface and upper level ridging build
over the north country. Highs will reach the lower 80s for the first
time in this calendar year across much of our area. These
temperatures will lead to some surface based instability, so may
need to add chances for afternoon showers but for now have a dry
forecast. Better chances for precipitation will be Wednesday into
Thursday as a low pressure system passes through the Great Lakes
region then passes to our northwest. Still quite far out, but will
monitor potential for thunderstorms with frontal passage. Latest
model runs are indicating best chance for showers will be on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...The main aviation concern for the period
will be overnight MVFR/IFR fog which will be up and down at
KSLK and more prevalent at KMPV and KEFK where visibility could
go as low as LIFR. After 11-12Z, fog lifts and VFR is expected
thereafter for the remainder of the period under SCT/BKN
mid/high clouds. Winds will be nearly calm overnight with the
exception of the typical southeast drainage wind at KRUT, then
winds trend SSE at all sites during the daylight hours at
5-10kts.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Lahiff