Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 161455
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
955 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm will continue to produce periods of moderate to
heavy snow this morning with widespread 5 to 10 inches expected.
The snow will become showery by mid afternoon with another 1 to
3 inches of snow possible through the Saturday. Expect quiet
weather to return Sunday with well below normal temperatures
through Thanksgiving and a couple chances for some light
precipitation through beginning of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 953 AM EST Friday...Snow still moving across Vermont and
will be ending in the next few hours. Then we`ll have some wrap
around snow showers beginning soon after that. No big changes
for the 930 am update this morning. Previous discussion follows.


The meso band is producing some high snow totals based on early
reports. We`ve got reports across northern New York under the
band of upwards of 7-10 inches and snowfall rates of 1-2 inches
an hour in the last 2 to 3 hours. So we`ll continue to monitor
the band as it shifts east over the next couple of hours. The IR
satellite is particularly impressive as the deformation axis
continued pushing east them morning. By 9-10am I anticipate the
heaviest snow taper off and become more showery through out the
rest of the day.

Previous discussion...Latest obs and composite radar point
a picture of widespread moderate to heavy snow. The strongly
forced fgen meso band is currently starting lift into the
northern Champlain Valley and we`re well on our way to see 1 to
1.5" and hour rates for the next 3-5 hours. The deformation axis
clearly shows up on radar and we expect it will start to pivot
back through Vermont near daybreak. This will lead to widespread
snowfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches just before the morning
commute on top of the 2-4 already on the ground. Caution is
certainly advised to any commuters this morning and we urge you
to take extra time.

All hazards remain in place and snow totals have been bumped up
across the axis from the Adirondacks through the Champlain
Valley into the Northeast Kingdom by an inch or 2 given the
placement of the mesoband. Its quite rare that we end up with
the band pivoting through the Champlain Valley so its quite a
sight to see. Normally this type band would be further to the
south as the low pressure system starts to pivot and peel away.
All totaled we should see 6-10 inches along the axis from the
Adirondacks through the Northeast Kingdom with locally higher
totals possible. Across southern Vermont the warm nose and dry
air are mixing in aloft and we`ve gotten some MPING reports of
sleet and freezing rain mixing in. So that limits total
accumulation across Rutland/Windsor to around 3-6 inches. Across
the Saint Lawrence valley expect totals will vary quite a bit
with with southwestern Saint Lawrence doing quite well with some
lake enhancement as the meso band just skirts east while up
near Massena light snow ends up leading to 3-5 inches of snow.

Snow will taper off rapidly by mid morning although a second
upper level trough currently over the Great Lakes will push into
the North Country. That second upper level trough should bring
a reinvigorating shot northwest flow and thus some additional
upslope snow. Froude numbers indicate we`ll be blocked through
Friday night so it wouldn`t surprise me to see the western
slopes continue to pick up snow especially towards Jay Peak.

Highs today will be in the low 30s with a warming trend expected
by mid afternoon. Expect temps to warm through much of the
night with out evening lows being set between 00-02Z and then
temps will warm Saturday into the upper 30s to near 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 AM EST Friday...Surface high pressure builds ewd from
the Great Lakes region Saturday night into Sunday, allowing any
lingering snow showers to wind down early Saturday night.
Lingering clouds are likely, especially during the first half of
the night, with high RH trapped beneath increasing subsidence
inversion 875-850mb layer, per 00Z NAM forecast soundings. May
see some partial clearing and better radiational cooling late,
especially with fresh snowpack. Thus, looking at lows ranging
from the mid-upper teens for the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence
Valleys, as well as n-central into nern VT. In the Champlain
Valley and CT River Valley, lows in the lower 20s are expected.

Sfc anticyclone crests over the region Sunday with light winds and
tranquil/partly sunny conditions. Below normal temps continue, with
highs generally in the upper 20s to around freezing.

A modest 700-500mb positive tilt trough passes thru the srn tier of
New York into New England during Sunday night, and may spread some
light stratiform snowfall northward into our region. Kept highest
PoPs (around 60%) across the Adirondacks into Rutland/Windsor
counties in VT, with generally 30-50% Sunday night across central
and nrn areas. Potential exists for some light/fluffy snow
accumulation, generally 1" or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 341 AM EST Friday...While no significant precipitation
systems are forecast during the long-term period, an active
northern stream upper flow pattern will maintain potential for
shortwave trough passages and minor snowfalls. Monday will
feature quiet/seasonably cold conditions, but will see
increasing clouds Monday into in advance of arctic boundary and
developing wave cyclone along the front in sern Ontario. Appears
arctic front shifts thru nrn NY and VT during the day Tuesday,
coincident with sharpening mid-level shortwave trough. Lake
moisture and shallow instability should support snow showers and
possible snow squalls across the region as the arctic frontal
passage occurs. Highs Monday-Tuesday generally in the low-mid
30s, but will trend colder Wednesday with highs only in the low-
mid 20s based on current indications. Wind chills in the single
digits are possible with gusty NW winds 15-25 mph. Should see
some moderation back into the low-mid 30s with passage of a weak
warm front on Thanksgiving Day. Should see cloudy conditions
with a chance for light snow or scattered snow showers on
Thanksgiving, especially across the nrn mtns. No significant
travel problems are foreseen based on current 00Z NWP suite.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Expecting IFR conditions prevail until
13-14z as the snow will eventually begin to taper off. Brief
periods of LIFR snow are possible through 13z in heavy snow
across an axis from SLK through PBG/BTV before the snow starts
to lighten up mid morning. Scattered snow showers will continue
through the day Friday with winds generally be 10 knots of less
through the period.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     VTZ001>010-012-016>019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     VTZ011.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ028>031-034-035.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Deal


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