Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 112350
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
750 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers this evening will diminish overnight with some
lingering cloud cover early Wednesday morning. Scattered showers
will redevelop over Vermont on Wednesday with drier weather over
northern New York and temperatures remaining below normal mainly 55
to 60. Temperatures will become more seasonable for the remainder of
the period with additional shower chances, including scattered
afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms each day Friday through
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 750 PM EDT Tuesday...Overall forecast in real good shape.
Only noticeable tweak was to raise minimum temperatures up a
couple of degrees as plenty of upstream clouds upstream will be
moving down into the area. Going forecast of decreasing showers
overnight with a trend to more terrain driven activity remains
on track.

Previous Discussion...
As expected, scattered to numerous tiny showers are dotting the
North Country this afternoon. These will persist through the
evening as a cold pool aloft and strong May sun promotes
sufficient instability. The showers, currently over mainly the
northern portions of the forecast area where surface dew points
are relatively high in the 30s, will tend to shift southward and
become more widespread this evening as upper-level energy
swings south and then east. Therefore, best chances of showers
will be over the St. Lawrence Valley early this evening before
shifting across the Adirondacks into northern Vermont towards
dark. Additional scattered shower activity will redevelop
overnight as a weak surface boundary moves southward across the
region. With a relatively dry air mass remaining overhead, light
amounts of precipitation (up to a few hundreths of an inch in
most locations, with some of the higher terrain seeing up to two
tenths) will be observed. Temperatures at summit level at the
highest peaks will be close enough to freezing to see some wet
snow during this period. Towards daybreak, areas that see
rainfall today will be particularly prone to seeing low clouds
develop with light winds in place, with better chances of
stratus over the higher terrain. These clouds may linger through
the first few hours after daybreak.

Another round of popcorn-like showers will develop tomorrow
afternoon, with nearly identical thermodynamics in place again
promoting high cloud bases with some sufficiently tall showers for
small hail. With the cold pool aloft shifting east, showers will be
less numerous and primarily over Vermont with best chances over
northeastern areas. Temperatures will remain below normal mainly in
the 50s to low 60s with no appreciable air mass change, and
conditions will be continue to be modestly breezy (some gusts around
20 MPH) given the well-mixed daytime conditions balancing a lack of
strong winds aloft.

For tomorrow night, still looking at areas of frost to develop
across mainly the Adirondack and Green Mountain regions with skies
expected to clear out with an anticipated decoupling allowing for
cool surface temperatures by daybreak. Not ideal synoptic-scale
conditions for temperatures bottoming out as ridging won`t be quite
overhead, so still questionable how widespread frost will be.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 349 PM EDT Tuesday...For the middle to end of the work week
it`s going to finally be feeling a bit more like spring here in the
North Country with the exit of unseasonably cooler air aloft despite
still being controlled by general troughiness. At the surface an
area of weak high pressure builds in which will help to dry out the
low levels, but with steepening lapse rates and weak elevated
instability developing each day, some diurnally driven showers and
isolated rumbles of thunder are possible in the afternoon to early
evening hours. Temps will be close to normal for mid May with highs
in the mid 60s to near 70 and lows mainly in the 40s with a few spot
30s in the colder hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 349 PM EDT Tuesday...Unsettled but seasonal conditions continue
into the weekend with really no major pattern change Saturday and
Sunday. The overnight into morning hours will generally be quiet,
with rising chances for isolated to scattered showers and rumbles of
thunder, especially from the Adirondacks eastward. Heading into next
week uncertainty remains in when our next major system moves in.
Consensus is for an upper ridge to bring dry and warm conditions
Monday, but thereafter the timing of a northern stream trough and
potential coastal low varies widely amongst global models. As is
usually the case, the GFS is the most progressive/fastest impacting
the region Monday night into Tuesday, while the more reliable (my
opinion) ECMWF/GDPS are delayed more into Tuesday afternoon and
night. Will offer chance pops for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Expect VFR to MVFR ceilings through the
period. Overall visibilities will be in the VFR category with
only a brief period of MVFR visibilities at KSLK until 02z.
Areal coverage of showers should decrease after 06z then
increase again in areal coverage after 16z. There were numerous
reports of pea size hail with the showers today and it looks
like pea size hail will once again be possible from the
Champlain Valley eastward Wednesday afternoon. Winds will
generally be 10 knots or less through the period, but will gust
in the 15 to 20 knot range in and around any showers.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Evenson


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