Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 241449
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1049 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our north will provide the region with brilliant
sunshine this afternoon followed by moonlit skies tonight. We can
then fully anticipate a significant warm up for the start of the new
work week...as a strengthening southerly flow will boost
temperatures well into the 50s for most areas Monday and into the
60s for similar locations Tuesday. A slow moving cold front will
then lead to the likelihood of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Strong Canadian high pressure will drift by to the north today. This
will guarantee a wealth of brilliant sunshine off our still
relatively fresh snow cover. A cold north to northeasterly flow will
remain in place across western and northcentral NY bringing to
support one last day of of below normal temperatures as highs will
be in the low to mid 30s.

Surface ridge axis drifts into eastern NY tonight. This will promote
mainly moonlit skies while encouraging our low level flow to veer
from northeasterly to southeasterly overnight. Warmer air will surge
in aloft, but will not be realized at the surface tonight as a stout
radiational inversion sets up just off the deck. This will mean one
more cold night owed to little cloud cover, relatively weak flow,
and surface snow cover. Coldest temperatures will be east of Lake
Ontario closest to the surface ridge axis. With these factors in
mind, have undercut guidance a bit with decent radiational cooling
conditions expected. Lows will range from low to mid teens across
the North Country to the upper teens and lower 20s across western
NY. Some single digits will definitely be possible across the
higher terrain east of Lake Ontario, along with the traditional
cold bowls.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will slowly depart to our northeast Monday, but will
maintain fair weather. Skies for the most part will be mainly sunny
with an increase in high clouds. Warm advective flow on the backside
of the departing high will send temperatures about 10 degrees above
normal with most highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s, although some
downslope areas could reach 60F.

Dry weather will continue Monday night with high pressure still in
control ahead of an approaching shortwave and cold front. A
strengthening south to southeast flow may lead to some gusty
downslope winds, mainly across the higher terrain and off the
Chautauqua Ridge. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s east
of Lake Ontario to the upper 30s across far western New York as
warmer air continues to move into the area.

Mid level short wave will advance toward the region from the upper
Great Lakes Tuesday, with the warm conveyor lifting into western New
York. The day starts out dry, but the strength of the low level
inflow will be efficient in transporting moisture into western New
York by Tuesday afternoon, supporting increasing rain chances west
of the Finger Lakes. Continued warm advection will send temperatures
well into the 50s, with 60s possible along the lake plains.

Associated cold front held upstream during the day Tuesday will
surge into the region later Tuesday night, supporting a round of
showers. Overall, the 00Z model suite struggling to bring the
surface based instability axis into western New York, but wouldn`t
completely rule out a rumble of thunder along the cold frontal
boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A deep trough will be centered across the central US Wednesday. A
low-level jet will be exiting the North Country early Wednesday with
isolated to scattered showers possible. There is good agreement that
a cold front will move across the forecast area with showers
developing, especially east of the Genesee Valley Wednesday. There
could be a second round of showers across far western Ny if the
front aligns with peak heating. Showers will likely end across
western NY Wednesday night with showers potentially lingering east
of Lake Ontario into Thursday.

High pressure will extend into eastern Great Lakes region into
Friday. Mostly dry conditions will continue into the start of the
weekend. Temperatures will start out above normal Wednesday then
become seasonable for late March Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place through AT LEAST Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR.
Tuesday...VFR but with the chance of showers far west late.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR CIGS with showers likely.
Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today, high pressure passing to the north will generate gentle to
moderate northerlies across the Lower Great Lakes at midday with the
winds veering to northeast on Lake Erie this afternoon and
becoming light and variable across the open waters of Lake Ontario
leading to progressively less chop on both Lakes as the day wears on.

Moderate east to southeast winds will be in place for tonight and
Monday, although winds will freshen across Lake Ontario. Given the
easterly flow though, the choppiest conditions will be found in
Canadian waters. However, with more of a strengthening easterly
component to the wind found across central and western Lake Ontario,
near Small Craft conditions will be possible by Monday from near
Sodus Bay westward.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/RSH


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