Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 162121
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
521 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain pleasant and dry weather across the
area through Friday. Periods of rain showers will return Friday
night into the weekend as a weak low pressure system moves
across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A narrow ridge of surface high pressure across the eastern
Great Lakes will maintain tranquil weather across the region for
the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The area of cloud
cover associated with an area of low pressure to our south will
continue to spread some high thin cirrus across the area, with some
thicker and lower clouds near the PA boarder. To our north, across
central Ontario province, a weak frontal boundary featuring some
scattered cloudiness will continue to drift south overnight before
crossing the region Thursday morning. This moisture-starved frontal
boundary will make for an uneventful passage Thursday morning, but
just some increase in cloud cover but dry conditions. Winds will
shift around to the north behind the front passage Thursday
afternoon, which will halt the diurnal warming of locations south of
Lake Ontario where cooler air lake air is pushed onshore.

Some patchy fog development is possible again tonight, but a
drier airmass with no onshore flow off Lake Ontario should keep
any repeat of dense fog like this morning from repeating
Thursday morning. Overnight lows will be in the 50s tonight,
with highs back into the mid 70s across WNY with upper 60s to
low 60s northeast of the Genesee Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure over Quebec will maintain dry conditions
Thursday night, despite a reinforcing cool front settling south
through the region early Thursday night. The high will actually
strengthen as it shifts toward New England behind the front,
therefore expect clear skies. Clear skies combined with the
incoming cooler airmass will result in a cool night with
overnight lows ranging from the lower 40s across the North
Country to around 50 degrees across portions of the Southern
Tier.

The high will continue its track to the southeast through New
England Friday continuing to keep our region dry, although there
looks to be a low risk for a few showers sneaking into the Southern
Tier very late in the day, as some moisture begins to return
northward around the high. Otherwise, most areas should experience
sunshine filtered through increasing amounts of cirrus. Despite the
filtered sunshine, Friday looks several degrees cooler than the mid
week period with highs only in the 60s.

The high will finally push off the New England coast Friday night.
This will allow the frontal boundary to our south to start working
its way back north as a warm front. Deeper tropical moisture will be
sent northward as southern stream energy combined with this old
frontal boundary brings a large area of rain and showers into the
region starting Friday night with coverage becoming widespread
Saturday into Saturday night. Some locally heavy rainfall is not
out of the question considering the source region of the
incoming moisture feed. This may especially be the case Saturday
afternoon when some convective elements may develop in
enhanced/elevated instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A plume of anomalously high moisture with PWATs of 1.25-1.5 inches
will be in the process of shifting east of the forecast area on
Sunday as a shortwave trough crosses New York into New England. This
shortwave will force a surface wave and trailing cold front to shift
across western and central NY which will keep a threat for scattered
showers to close out the weekend. Some of these showers may contain
some heavy downpours due to the elevated moisture plume exiting our
region. The showers may linger into Sunday night if the 12z EC is
correct while the 12z GFS shows mid-level ridging building in with
dry weather for Sunday night. Have continued to forecast chance POPs
Sunday and Sunday night with slight chance POPs on Monday due to the
difference in timing of the departure of the moisture axis and
supporting lift between the GFS and EC.

Monday night through Tuesday and Wednesday are still forecast to
bring broad Canadian high pressure building south across the Great
Lakes with a return to dry weather and sunshine. This is most
evident with the 12z EC while the 12z GFS and GEM models both show a
potential for more showers Monday night into Tuesday night with a
shallow wave and associated pool of mid-level moisture shifting
west-east across the Great Lakes. If later runs continue to show
this, then chance POPs may need to be added to the forecast early
next week. All global models show high pressure for Wednesday.

Temperatures look to remain above normal with with warmth provided
by a Bermuda High. Highs will reach toward the upper 60s to low 70s
each day and only slip back into the 50s each night. Dewpoints in
the 50s Sunday will keep a mild humidity level to our airmass to
close the weekend with a trend toward lower humidity moving into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect widespread VFR through the period. Diurnal cumulus inland
from the lake breeze boundaries will dissipate early this evening.
High/thin cirrus will continue to cross the area overnight. The one
exception will be near the PA state line, where a lower MVFR deck
will continue tonight. Some patches of fog are possible again
tonight...though after a day of drying...areas of fog may not be as
great as it was early this morning.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR.
Friday...mainly VFR with a chance of showers across the Southern
Tier.
Saturday and Sunday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Central Great Lakes will expand across the
Lower Lakes through Thursday with light winds and minimal
waves. Northeast winds will increase on Friday, though
conditions may remain just below small craft criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Church
NEAR TERM...Church/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Church/Hitchcock
MARINE...Church



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