776
FXUS62 KTBW 151124
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
724 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Thunderstorms moving off the Gulf will affect KTPA, KPIE, KLAL,
and possibly KSRQ over the next few hours, with MVFR or briefly
lower restrictions. Storms will slowly spread southward through
the rest of the day, eventually reaching the other TAF sites with
similar restrictions. Outside of convection, winds will generally
remain southwesterly with gusts up to 25 knots or so, but
thunderstorms could contain much stronger gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Looks like today will be the last really active weather day this
week as a weak cool front moves south into north Florida with
numerous showers and thunderstorms developing in the moist
southwesterly flow ahead of it. A few of these storms could become
severe with damaging winds the main threat, but some hail and an
isolated tornado/waterspout cannot be ruled out. The area with the
best coverage of showers and thunderstorms will slowly spread
south during the day starting out over the Nature Coast this
morning then moving south to the Interstate 4 corridor around
midday and finally reaching southwest Florida toward evening.

The front will drift south into the forecast area tonight, but
slow down and eventually stall across the southern part of the
region. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will
continue along and south of the boundary into Thursday. North of
the boundary some drier air will move in with partly to mostly
sunny skies.

On Friday the boundary will begin to lift back north as the next
storm system moves out of the south central U.S. and across the
eastern states over the weekend. South to southwest flow will
return with moisture also returning as the cool front associated
with the storm system approaches the region over the weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the weekend with the highest rain chances Saturday across the
Nature Coast, and then south of Interstate 4 on Sunday.

The cool front will move through the area late Sunday and Sunday
night with drier air returning for early next week as high
pressure builds in from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Breezy south to southwest winds ahead of a weak cool front will
continue today with showers and thunderstorms developing and
spreading southward during the day. The front will drift south
into the eastern gulf waters tonight with winds shifting to west
to northwest through Thursday. This boundary will lift back north
late in the week with south to southwest winds returning through
early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
with breezy southwesterly winds around 15 mph with higher gusts
today leading to rather high dispersion values. West to northwest
winds will setup on Thursday, but remain less than 15 mph.
Therefore, Red Flag conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  76  88  75 /  90  20  10   0
FMY  91  78  91  76 /  50  40  30   0
GIF  89  73  92  70 /  80  20  10   0
SRQ  88  76  89  73 /  80  40  10   0
BKV  87  67  90  65 /  90  10  10   0
SPG  86  78  87  78 /  90  30  10   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Aviation...05/Carlisle
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