Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 260235 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
935 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Updated for evening discussion.


Made a few minor tweaks to the short-term forecast to account for
latest trends in guidance, but overall forecast remains on track.
Did remove the mention of thunderstorms for most of the area
tonight and tomorrow, as elevated instability is minimal and any
thunder is expected to be extremely isolated. Drier and cooler
weather expected tomorrow in the wake of the upper trough and
associated surface cold front. /NF/

Prior discussion below:

Mostly clear skies have provided a rather pleasant afternoon with
temperatures generally in the middle to upper 70s, right around
average for late April. However, thick cirrus clouds are already
increasing from the west ahead of a well-defined upper wave over
Oklahoma. This system is producing a widespread band of rain across
the Red River Valley into much of Arkansas, and this activity will
overspread most of the forecast area later this evening and
overnight as the upper wave tracks into Mississippi through sunrise.
A limited period of return southerly flow ahead of this system will
limit instability and moisture return so that any thunderstorms
will be isolated and weak, and rainfall amounts should generally
be around a half inch or less. A few locations in northern
Mississippi may see rainfall amounts approach an inch, but these
amounts should generally remain north of the forecast area. As a
result, most area rivers that are in or near flood stage should
see little impact from tonight`s rainfall.

Most precipitation should exit the area into Alabama by early
Thursday morning, although cold air advection and weak low-level
instability behind the upper wave will likely result in some
scattered showers redeveloping tomorrow afternoon particularly
across northern portions of the forecast area. A second upper wave
will swing through the region on Friday with another round of
showers and a couple of weak thunderstorms possible through the
afternoon, but rainfall amounts should be generally light.

Persistent northwesterly flow heading into early next week will
provide dry weather through the weekend and into early next week
while temperatures remain near or slightly below normal. The next
appreciable chance for precipitation will arrive Tuesday and
Wednesday ahead of a large upper trough encompassing much of the
western and central U.S. Most indications at this time are than any
strong storms or widespread heavy rainfall should stay north and
west of the forecast area.


00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are prevailing this afternoon but showers are
moving into the Delta. These will continue to spread east through
the evening and result in lowered ceilings across the area as well
as some vis restrictions. MVFR to potentially IFR flight
categories should occur at TAF sites this evening into the
overnight hours. Conditions should gradually improve tomorrow back
to VFR but it might take most of the day. Winds will shift after
midnight out of the north around 10-15kts with some gusts to
around 20kts possible. /28/


Jackson       55  68  50  70 /  90  23   4  31
Meridian      58  69  50  70 /  89  51   5  29
Vicksburg     54  70  52  72 /  88   6   5  28
Hattiesburg   59  74  52  72 /  75  70   3  25
Natchez       53  71  51  72 /  79   4   4  23
Greenville    54  68  52  71 /  92  13  13  25
Greenwood     55  66  50  70 /  90  42   6  32





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