Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 221002
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
300 AM PDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure over the region will once again
produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly for
areas north of Interstate 40. Dry and mild conditions can be
expected during the middle of the week then unsettled weather is on
the horizon for the holiday weekend as another Pacific System
appears to be taking aim on our region.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night.

A few lingering showers showing up on radar this morning over Mohave
County and southern Lincoln County. Expect these showers to linger
through the remainder of the night as low pressure remains over the
area. During the day, the low will slowly shift north and east and
convection is once again expected to fire across mainly northern
Mohave, Lincoln, and central Nye Counties late this morning and
afternoon along with the Sierra. Convection looks more isolated for
areas across the south, but the Spring Mountains and the higher
terrain of central Mohave and eastern San Bernardino Counties have
the possibility of seeing some showers and storms today. Gusty winds
will be the primary threat from any storm. Everything is expected to
lift north this evening with just a few overnight showers possible
across the far northern zones. The area will return to a more
southwest flow on Wednesday ahead of another trough digging off the
west coast. Most of the area will remain dry, but there is some
lingering moisture and weak instability over the Sierra which could
see a few afternoon showers. Temperatures will remain a few degrees
below normal today and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday.

By Thursday, the effects of a low pressure system off the northern
California coast will begin to be felt across the region. The most
notable impact on Thursday will be breezy conditions, with the
strongest winds over Inyo, Nye, and Esmeralda counties. As the
system pushes inland Friday (currently somewhere just north of the
Bay Area), winds will spread further east and increase. On Saturday,
the low will traverse east across the southern Great Basin pushing
showers across the area as it does. There is still some disagreement
in the exact track and therefore precipitation placement with this
system, but precipitation chances were increased across the northern
portions of the area. Breezy conditions will continue on Saturday,
but with this current track appear to be slightly lower than
previously forecast. At this time it appears that the strongest
winds to the north and west of Las Vegas will occur on Friday, and
to the south and east of Las Vegas on Saturday. This system will
also usher in another punch of cooler air and temperatures were
further reduced.

The low will lift out of the area on Monday, resulting in drying and
warming conditions for Memorial Day into early next week.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...The area will still remain under the
influence which will allow for showers and isolated thunderstorms to
again develop mainly north of Las Vegas today. There will also be a
chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms over the Spring
Mountains, but it`s unlikely McCarran will see any shower activity.
Clouds are expected to be as low as 10k feet. Northeast winds this
morning are expected to become light and variable between 13-16z
before southeast winds develop with speeds around 6-8 kts. Winds by
late afternoon are forecast to become more southerly.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to remain
generally north of Interstate 40 today with the better chances
further north. Winds generally less than 15 kts, although some gusty
winds are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Cigs will
generally be between 8-12kft AGL. Improving conditions are expected
Wednesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Wolcott

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