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000
FXUS61 KCLE 180848 CCA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
448 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A low over the Upper Great Lakes will continue northeastward
into Canada on Thursday while another area of low pressure
develops over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This second low
will track northeast through Ohio by Friday morning, and stalls
over the region through Saturday, bringing scattered
precipitation to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

This period will begin with a deep upper level trough extending
through the Great Plains. Two vort maxes will allow for
development of two lows. The first low is currently located over
upper lake Michigan. This low will continue northeast into
Canada through the day Thursday. An area of showers and
thunderstorms currently over eastern Illinois and western-
central Indiana will move northeast through the forecast area
Thursday morning between 12-16Z. Negative Showalter Indices in
model guidance suggest enough elevated instability to put chance
thunder in the forecast on Thursday morning. Following the
morning precipitation, strong southerly flow of will increase to
15-20 kts with gusts up to 30kts+ during the day, allowing
temperatures to soar into the upper 60s and mid 70s. Showers and
thunderstorms will creep into the western portion of our CWA
Thursday afternoon and slowly move east into the area Thursday
night ahead of the trailing cold front. A second low that
develops over the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday night will
propagate northeast towards Ohio by Friday afternoon. As the
cold front translates east through the forecast area on Friday,
an area of thunderstorms will develop in the eastern forecast
area around 17Z and move east. Although models suggest large
deep layer shear of 60kts+, instability will be lacking, with
MUCAPE generally around 250-500 J/kg. This will keep the severe
potential low, though still non-zero.

SPC included a small area of our CWA in a marginal risk,
including cities such as Wooster, Akron, Canton, Warren, and
Youngstown. The only threat will likely be for damaging winds
given the wind field of this system. Additionally, there will
be a risk for flooding through Friday with a large QPF area of
1-2". The highest rainfall totals in our CWA are expected in
northwestern Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move north along a stalled
cold front on Friday night and linger over the Lake Erie basin
through Saturday. Rain should be ongoing across the region, perhaps
with some decaying thunderstorms as the region will be modestly
unstable ahead of the low. Rain will try to taper off from west to
east as the low settles on the southeast shores of Lake Erie. As the
low becomes vertically stacked over the region, it will weaken and
rain will become more widely scattered over the area as the best
forcing races east of the surface low towards the East Coast. The
weakened surface low will begin departing the forecast area on
Saturday night and areas will dry from west to east with most
locations completely dry by Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will
nose into the region by Sunday afternoon and should keep the next
system to the northwest of the forecast area. Have a low chance PoP
late on Sunday night for NW Ohio, but this may be overdone.
Temperatures during the period will be variable with below normal
temperatures with the surface low and rain on Friday night through
Saturday night, but temperatures will recover to near or even above
normal for Sunday with dry conditions and high pressure building
in.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term forecast period remains unsettled with several weak
systems expected to impact the forecast area early next week. A cold
front will approach from the northwest on Monday and bring a chance
of rain to the region. Low pressure will enter the area from the
southwest on Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a second round of
convective weather. Given that these systems will enter from the
southwest and bring warmer air and increased moisture to the region,
have chances of thunder in the forecast on both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures through the period appear to be above normal
at this time.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A few showers around KCAK, KYNG, and KERI should move off to the
east over the next hour. After that, conditions should remain
VFR through 12Z. A round of showers and thunderstorms will move
northeast through the area between 12-16Z, reaching KFDY first
at 12Z and leaving KERI by 16-17Z. Added tempos for MVFR
conditions during this morning round of showers and
thunderstorms. Additional showers and thunderstorms will begin
to slowly move east into northern Ohio late Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. With this, conditions will transition into
MVFR conditions with IFR conditions possibly beginning right
around 06Z.

Winds are generally out of the south at around 10 kts as the
warm front continues to lift north of our area today. Southerly
winds will increase during the day as low pressure approaches
the local area, increasing the pressure gradient. Most places
will be around 15-20 kts sustained SSE winds between 15-21Z with
the chance for 30kts+ gusts at all TAF sites between 17-21Z.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in showers and possible thunderstorms on
continues into Friday. Showers under an upper level low may
keep conditions non-VFR across the region at times on Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure over northern Lake Michigan this morning will continue
east through the northern Great Lakes and into Canada. This low will
extend a cold front into the region that will enter the western
basin of Lake Erie this evening. Today, south to southwest winds
will increase ahead of the cold front with winds 20 to 25 knots
expected over the basin. With offshore flow, waves will only be in
the 1 to 3 ft range in the nearshore areas, but the expected strong
winds have prompted a Small Craft Advisory to be issued for all of
the nearshore zones on Lake Erie for today. Once the cold front
enters the lake tonight, it will begin to stall. Flow behind the
front will be out of the north to northwest and flow ahead of the
front will remain southwest through Friday.

Low pressure will move north along the cold front on Friday and
winds will increase out of the north. waves will build along the
nearshore zones and another Small Craft Advisory may be needed. The
low will reach the lake by Friday evening and linger over the basin
through Saturday, bringing variable wind conditions over the region
up to 20 knots at this time. The low will exit the area on Saturday
night and a ridge of high pressure will enter the area, allowing for
southerly winds to return to the basin. A weak cold front will enter
the basin on Monday and flow will shift around to the northwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sefcovic