Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 241732 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 132 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low over the Tennessee valley will slowly track east to the mid Atlantic region by Wednesday. A cold front will cross the local area early on Wednesday. High pressure will build across the region Wednesday night through Thursday night before a cold front moves east across the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper low currently situated over TN and KY continues to bring consistent light rain to much of the region. Rainfall rates are generally between a few hundredths of an inch an hour to around one-quarter of an inch an hour...mainly south of US 30. The short term models have been persistent with the bulk of the precipitation falling across the southern half of the region and steady rain becoming more showery this evening into the overnight hours. The upper low is forecast to shift slowly east with rain ending across the area Wednesday morning. The one exception may be the eastern half of the region...where showers may linger a few hours into Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise...below normal temperatures will persist across the region with readings generally between 5 and 15 degrees below normal for the end of April. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The short term begins Wednesday night with models showing minor differences with the moisture and position of the upper low. The GFS shows upper low pressure in srn Ontario while the NAM has it more over KBUF. The ECMWF has it just north of KTOL. Will accept more the grouping of the NAM/GFS although the GFS is dry across nwrn PA while the NAM would suggest a pop would be necessary. For continuity and compromise, will keep a low chance pop northeast through the night. For Thursday, both the NAM and GFS show high pressure building in from the west so will keep forecast dry. Next chance for rain will come Friday afternoon as a cold front moves through the area accompanied by an upper trough moving through the Great Lakes. At this time moisture is not convincing but given upper support we could see a line of showers work through. Friday night into saturday another low and reinforcing cold front will drop through the area out of the northwest likely bringing another round of showers and falling temps. Temps below normal Thursday and Saturday. Friday near normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Saturday night through Monday will be dominated by high pressure. The high will be over the area Sunday and then move to the Carolina coast by Tuesday setting up strong warm advection into the Ohio Valley for Monday. Expect highs Sunday 50 to 60 with highs near 70 Monday. Tuesday highs will be even warmer with 70 to 80 degrees not out of the question away from the immediate lakeshore. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Rain impacting the terminals through at least the evening hours...tapering off from west to east generally between 01z and 08z Wednesday. Gusty winds at KERI through 21z otherwise...mainly southeast winds becoming light after 00z. MVFR cigs becoming IFR this evening through Wednesday morning. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wednesday into at least Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Brief small craft conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon as northwest flow increases to 15 to 20 knots behind a cold front. Models however are indicating waves top out around 3 feet or so, so for now will go with a 2 to 4 foot forecast Wednesday and defer to afternoon models. Otherwise no headlines expected through the period with winds generally below 15 knots. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Riley NEAR TERM...Riley SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Riley MARINE...TK

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