National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 240224
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
924 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Central Plains will continue to rapidly
deepen as it moves northeast to the Great Lakes region tonight.
The associated cold front will move across the lower Great Lakes
on Sunday morning and a residual trough of low pressure will
linger over the lakes into Monday. High pressure over the
Northern Plains will build southeast into the Great Lakes region
on Tuesday and remain over the area through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
No significant changes to the forecast with the evening update,
aside from continued minor pop and temperature adjustments to
bring the forecast in line with the current obs.

Original discussion...
The next 48 hours will be very active across northern Ohio and
NW PA. Low pressure over the Central Plains this afternoon will
continue to deepen as it heads northeast towards the Great
Lakes region tonight. The associated warm front located near the
Ohio River will continue slowly northward this evening, crossing
the area overnight. The warm front will bring a rain threat to
the area tonight, which can be noted as the convection over
southern Indiana this afternoon. Some embedded thunder may also
reach the area as there is still a greatly sheared environment.
While an isolated severe weather threat cannot be ruled out for
tonight, there will be quite the inversion over the area with
925mb temperatures of 10-12C and so instability will be very
limited. Temperatures overnight will have a warming trend as
warm advection will prompt surface temperatures to reach the 50s
over much of the area. In downsloping areas, 50s could set in
faster than in other locations overnight.

The low continues off to the northwest tomorrow morning and will
extend a cold front across the area late Sunday morning. With
the cold frontal passage, there may be a chance for some rain
immediately with the front, but nothing worthy of more than a
chance pops at the moment. The newsworthy item is the that
strong winds will mix down across the area with the cold frontal
passage and persist through the day on Sunday. With continued
confidence in the 60 knots at 925mb mixing to the surface, have
upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for the
entire forecast area. The main time period for high winds will
be with the cold front and through the afternoon hours, but have
the warning starting somewhat early to account for some mixing
in the warm sector ahead of the front and going through the
overnight as winds will linger. The strongest winds will likely
be along the lakeshore.

Behind the front on Sunday, any lingering rain will change over
to snow as temperatures plunge across the region. By Sunday
night, 850 mb temperatures over the region will be in the 12 to
15 degree range below zero Celsius, translating to surface
temperatures in lower 20s to lower teens. A lake effect snow
setup will be present, especially with the winds and warmer
temperatures likely creating ice-free areas on Lake Erie.
Several inches of snow are possible in NW PA Sunday night into
Monday and will be further addressed down the road.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Broad upper level ridge will move east into the lower 48 states
early in the week and begin to push the upper level trough
responsible for deep Great Lakes storm out of the area.  The upper
level ridge will begin to amplify slightly over the western slopes
of the Rocky Mountains resulting in some deepening of the broad
trough over the eastern U.S. by Wednesday.  Surface high pressure
ridge will build southeast into the central Great Lakes region
through Tuesday. The ridge will keep flow aligned enough to support
some lake effect snow Monday across the northeast with some
accumulating snow.  Gusty winds leftover from the exiting strong
storm system will likely cause some blowing snow across the snow
belt areas.

Models differ in their solutions for Wednesday with the European
remaining fairly dry for Wednesday with a possible jet streak and
associated moisture moving southeast into the area. GFS is much more
pessimistic with a surface low moving east across the area. Will
keep a chance for rain/snow across the area Wednesday and minimal at
best.

Cold air advection will take place Tuesday as cold pool of air
begins to exit off to the east.  As surface high pressure moves east
across the central Great Lakes, some weak warm air advection will
take place by Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridge is expected to move east to the eastern United
States by Friday.  In the process, the upper level ridge will
amplify as an upper level low pressure system dives into the western
Great Lakes by Saturday.  As the ridge shifts east, some moderation
in temperatures will take place as slight warm air advection begins
to move into the region.  Unfortunately, as the upper level low
pressure system moves southeast toward the Great Lakes, a fairly
cold pool of air will move southeast toward the local area with the
low pressure system.  This should bring a drop in temperatures for
the early part of the weekend. Also, in response to the upper level
low pressure system, a wave of low pressure will exit east out of
the northern Rockies and move east to the lower Great Lakes by
Saturday.  This low will bring another round of rain/snow to the
area by the end of the week and early part of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Strong low pressure will move northeast of the terminals through
the period, with a warm front lifting north tonight and a cold
front moving east across the terminals around/after 12Z. Some
IFR ceilings will be present with the warm front through the
first half of the TAF period, although some improvement is
possible through 06Z east of KMFD to KCLE. Rain chances will be
highest from 06Z through 12Z across the area before the cold
front moves east through the terminals. Some LLWS is possible
overnight, with the highest confidence across northwest Ohio
including KFDY and KTOL, where the strongest 925mb wind max will
be present.

The passage of the cold front will usher in the potential for
wind gusts out of the west/southwest of 50 kts or more at the
terminals. The strongest gusts will likely be at KTOL, KCLE and
KERI, closer to the low center. Some MVFR ceilings and -SN will
briefly spread across the area from 12Z to 18Z Sunday, with some
lingering -SN at KCLE, KTOL and KERI. Wind gusts will subside
after the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...Non- VFR likely Sunday with lingering showers and the
development of lake effect snow Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warnings for the western basin and storm warnings for the rest
of the lake are already in effect at this time.  Strong low pressure
system will move northeast toward the lakes region and rapidly
deepen into a strong storm.  Winds above the surface are expected to
be well into the 50s and even 60 knot range and this wind is
expected to reach the surface; especially Sunday morning into Sunday
night after the passage of the cold front.  There is the possibility
that stronger wind gusts could occur just before the cold front
moves east of the area.  As the low pressure system moves northeast
of the area Sunday night into Monday, winds will gradually diminish
Monday. Winds will gradually diminish to light and variable Tuesday
and continue into Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure becomes
dominant across the area.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     High Wind Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
     OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     LEZ142>145-162>165.
     Storm Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     LEZ146>149-166>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...Lombardy