Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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993 FXUS61 KCLE 160159 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 959 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist through the weekend as a strong ridge becomes established in the region, which will persist through next week and bring above normal high temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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No changes to the forecast at this time. 7 PM Update... Minor changes to the forecast at this time. Aligned temperatures and dew points with recent evening trends and modified clouds to reflect high clouds moving through region from convection over the Midwest. Previous Discussion... High pressure will persist through the near term period, allowing for dry conditions to persist for the remainder of this weekend. Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the low to mid 70s making for a pleasant Saturday. Temperatures tonight will fall into the low to mid 50s. On Sunday, a strong upper level ridge will become dominant over the region and mark the start of increasing temperatures through rest of this week. Highs on Sunday will climb into the mid 80s to low 90s with plenty of sunshine expected. Low RH values will keep apparent temperatures close to actual temperatures throughout the day. Overnight lows on Sunday night will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. More details on the prolonged heat wave and safety information can be found below, on weather.gov/cle, and on social media platforms.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY CREATING A VERY HOT PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS INDICATE THE HEAT WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES FORECAST NEAR 100 DEGREES. THESE HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE -8C TO -9C DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH IS WARM BUT NOT SO WARM THAT THE ATMOSPHERE CAN NOT SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRIEFLY INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY AND MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN OH. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER WESTERN OHIO ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED HEAT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE MODELS INDICATE A DRYING TREND IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE OR NO DYNAMICS TO SPEAK ABOUT AND DRY AIR, ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE. A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... VFR conditions are expected through the period with high clouds and light winds. Cirrus clouds will be in and out of the region dispersing east from convection across the Upper Midwest. Winds will be northeast to east tonight before shifting to southeast to south, as high pressure shifts east allowing for return flow across the region. Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Wednesday. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible in the afternoon on Monday and Tuesday, but confidence is low. && .MARINE... A VARIABLE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL PREDOMINATELY REMAIN FROM A NORTHEAST/EAST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A WEAK SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER, LOCAL EFFECTS WILL LIKELY STRONGLY INFLUENCE THE WIND DIRECTION. WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LAKE AND LAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, LAKE BREEZES/LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. && .CLIMATE... A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected next week. Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-17 97(1994) 94(1936) 94(2018) 94(2018) 95(1994) 90(2018) 06-18 98(1994) 93(1994) 96(1944) 96(1944) 95(1994) 92(2018) 06-19 98(1995) 94(1994) 92(1995) 94(1994) 94(1994) 92(1931) 06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016) 06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Garnet LONG TERM...Garnet AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Garnet CLIMATE...