Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 311931 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 331 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A trough will persist over our area through Wednesday morning as a low moves northeastward from the Southeast United States to the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure then builds from the west and north later Wednesday through Thursday. This high pressure ridge remains in control through most of Saturday as the ridge moves eastward. A weak cold front should drift eastward through northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania late Saturday into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Multiple shortwave troughs traverse our CWA from the west and northwest through tonight as a mid- to upper-level low meanders in vicinity of New England. At the surface, a trough persists over the eastern Great Lakes and our CWA as a deepening low tracks from the Southeast United States to Atlantic waters just east of Cape Hatteras. Abundant cloud cover, including a stratocumulus cloud deck, persists over our CWA. Occasional light rain is possible, especially late this evening through the predawn hours of tomorrow morning. During this period, nocturnal cooling should allow the stratocumulus deck to expand and become more efficient at producing light rain via the collision coalescence process or perhaps the seeder-feeder process given the expectation of passing mid- and upper-level cloud cover. A few wet snowflakes may mix with the rain, but no snow accumulation is expected. Any measurable rainfall amounts should be a few hundredths of an inch at most. Patchy mixing fog could develop where light rain manages to be more persistent. Northwest PA and far-northeast OH appear to be the preferred area for fog formation. Low temperatures should reach the mid to upper 30`s around daybreak Wednesday. Northwesterly flow aloft resides over our CWA Wednesday and Wednesday night as the aforementioned low begins to move away from New England and a mid- to upper-level high pressure ridge builds from the west. At the surface, the trough lingers over our CWA Wednesday morning and will be followed by high pressure building from the north and west later Wednesday and Wednesday night. This building high will allow our skies to clear gradually. Spotty light rain showers or drizzle may continue through late Wednesday morning with no measurable rainfall expected. Otherwise, fair weather will occur. Any patchy fog should disappear by late Wednesday morning as diurnal warming occurs. Wednesday afternoon highs are forecast to reach the mid 40`s to lower 50`s, with the coolest readings along and near the lakeshore due to an onshore flow off cool Lake Erie. Wednesday night low temperatures should dip into the upper 20`s to mid 30`s, with the coolest readings expected in interior northwest PA. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A slow warming trend will take place through the end of the week. A ridge and surface high pressure will slowly shift across the region during this time. With the nigh situated to our north, the warmup will be gradual with the northerly flow. By Saturday that ridge will begin to break down with shortwave energy from the northern Rockies making its way to the upper Great Lakes. Will see winds veer to the south-southeast and temperatures warm into the mid 60s inland. The shore will still be susceptible to a lake breeze. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The ridge breaks down for Saturday night with a weakening cold front approaching from the west. Have straddled precipitation chances between Saturday night and Sunday, but it will likely fall on just one of those periods and be scattered. High pressure, passing just north of the area, is in place for Monday. Again, the northerly flow will keep it cooler near the lake, but there will not be much of an airmass change so we will keep 60s inland Sunday and Monday. A touch warmer on Tuesday as the high shifts east. Precip chances on Monday into Tuesday somewhat uncertain as guidance is indicating some degree of shortwave energy topping the ridge that is centered on the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Abundant cloud cover is expected over our region through the TAF period as a strengthening surface low moves northeastward from near northern GA to Atlantic waters well east of Cape Hatteras. Simultaneously, a high pressure ridge will build slowly over our region from the north and west. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected as a stratocumulus cloud deck persists over northern OH and northwest PA. However, partial clearing of this cloud deck and a return to VFR are possible over northwest PA and far-northeast OH after 12Z/Wed. In the meantime, occasional light rain may occur through about 14Z/Wed. Patchy fog may form between 03Z and 14Z/Wed, but confidence remains low. Surface winds should trend northerly to northeasterly at about 5 to 10 knots. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR ceilings may persist Wednesday afternoon and early evening, especially west of a KERI to KYNG line. Otherwise, non-VFR are possible in scattered rain showers Saturday through Sunday. && .MARINE... Light northerly flow will be predominate through Friday as high pressure from the western Great Lakes to the eastern lakes. Winds may pick up some late Tuesday night/early Wednesday enough to make the central and eastern nearshore waters choppy. Over the weekend a weakening cold front will cross the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jaszka NEAR TERM...Jaszka SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...Oudeman

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