Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 161357 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 957 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Several ripples of low pressure systems will move through the region along a stationary front that will drift across the area. High pressure will attempt to build in from the north on Tuesday into Wednesday. However, another low pressure system enters the region on Wednesday night and lingers into the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... No changes to the forecast at this time. Previous Discussion... MCV #1 is moving eastward out of the CWA. We will continue to monitor the next MCV over Indiana as it moves eastward toward the region. Very wet across the southern half of the area with advisories and Flash Flood warnings still active. Any additional rain will cause significant problems. So we will not be making any changes to the flood watch at this time. Everything tries to shift southward with time today with another wave of rain on Monday. Flooding concerns will continue into Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A stronger mid level wave will be moving across the lower Ohio River Valley region Monday night into Tuesday. The stalled out frontal boundary will be across the region and more likely closer to southern or central Ohio. Most of the models have the front a little further south but the EURO has the boundary lifting back closer to northern Ohio. We will need to keep an eye on the location of the front. The EURO also has the mid level wave a little further north than the rest of the guidance. It all means we will continue rain chances in the area with the better chances further south. Any additional rainfall at this point will be runoff as we will remain completely saturated and flooding concerns will remain high. We may have a brief break in rain chances and in between system Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. The next mid level wave and system will start impacting the region Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next system to bring widespread showers and storms back the region will be moving through on Thursday. The EURO is a little faster than the GFS guidance. Guidance indicates a stronger area of low pressure trying to develop with the end of the week system moving across the Midwest into the eastern Great Lakes region. We may have some breezy conditions due to the low pressure system. Depending on the track of the surface low and how much we can tap into the warm sector, we may have to deal with some stronger convection as well. And to make matters worse, PW values are forecast to climb to around 2.0 inches which means we will have more efficient rainfall rates and heavy rainfall potential to add to our flooding concerns. At this time, we will highlight Thursday and Thursday night as a time for active weather. High pressure will briefly build in for late Friday into Friday night with drier weather. The next system to bring rainfall may be late Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... The region is between MCV`s with MVFR/IFR conditions common. IFR conditions will likely improve to MVFR as the showers arrive. Will then wait to see if ceilings can lift in the wake of a weak front that will settle into the region this afternoon. Any lifting of the clouds above MVFR will be very slow if it occurs at all. Thunder chances look low at this time and even the coverage of the showers is a difficult call through the day. Winds should be light away from the showers but should shift to the north near the lake by afternoon. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible through Tuesday in showers and thunderstorms. Non-VFR returns on THursday. && .MARINE... A weak low pressure will skirt along the southern lakeshore today along a slow moving frontal boundary. Winds over the lake will become east to northeasterly today 10 to 15 knots. These northeasterly winds will continue tonight into Monday. We will need to watch the water levels on the western basin of the lake. It is uncertain at this time if water levels will go above the level for impactful flooding near the lakeshore. The frontal boundary will likely stay just south of the lakeshore through much of the week. Winds will continue to be light and somewhat variable during the mid week time frame. A stronger area of low pressure will develop and move towards the lake and perhaps across the lake on Thursday into Friday. Easterly to northeasterly winds may increase by the end of the week with more potential for lakeshore flooding for the southwestern basin. Waves may also increase by the end of the week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flash Flood Watch through late Monday night for OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Flash Flood Watch through late Monday night for PAZ001>003. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...MM/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Griffin LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...MM MARINE...Griffin

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