Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 180848 CCA AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED National Weather Service Cleveland OH 448 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A low over the Upper Great Lakes will continue northeastward into Canada on Thursday while another area of low pressure develops over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This second low will track northeast through Ohio by Friday morning, and stalls over the region through Saturday, bringing scattered precipitation to the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... This period will begin with a deep upper level trough extending through the Great Plains. Two vort maxes will allow for development of two lows. The first low is currently located over upper lake Michigan. This low will continue northeast into Canada through the day Thursday. An area of showers and thunderstorms currently over eastern Illinois and western- central Indiana will move northeast through the forecast area Thursday morning between 12-16Z. Negative Showalter Indices in model guidance suggest enough elevated instability to put chance thunder in the forecast on Thursday morning. Following the morning precipitation, strong southerly flow of will increase to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30kts+ during the day, allowing temperatures to soar into the upper 60s and mid 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will creep into the western portion of our CWA Thursday afternoon and slowly move east into the area Thursday night ahead of the trailing cold front. A second low that develops over the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday night will propagate northeast towards Ohio by Friday afternoon. As the cold front translates east through the forecast area on Friday, an area of thunderstorms will develop in the eastern forecast area around 17Z and move east. Although models suggest large deep layer shear of 60kts+, instability will be lacking, with MUCAPE generally around 250-500 J/kg. This will keep the severe potential low, though still non-zero. SPC included a small area of our CWA in a marginal risk, including cities such as Wooster, Akron, Canton, Warren, and Youngstown. The only threat will likely be for damaging winds given the wind field of this system. Additionally, there will be a risk for flooding through Friday with a large QPF area of 1-2". The highest rainfall totals in our CWA are expected in northwestern Ohio. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move north along a stalled cold front on Friday night and linger over the Lake Erie basin through Saturday. Rain should be ongoing across the region, perhaps with some decaying thunderstorms as the region will be modestly unstable ahead of the low. Rain will try to taper off from west to east as the low settles on the southeast shores of Lake Erie. As the low becomes vertically stacked over the region, it will weaken and rain will become more widely scattered over the area as the best forcing races east of the surface low towards the East Coast. The weakened surface low will begin departing the forecast area on Saturday night and areas will dry from west to east with most locations completely dry by Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will nose into the region by Sunday afternoon and should keep the next system to the northwest of the forecast area. Have a low chance PoP late on Sunday night for NW Ohio, but this may be overdone. Temperatures during the period will be variable with below normal temperatures with the surface low and rain on Friday night through Saturday night, but temperatures will recover to near or even above normal for Sunday with dry conditions and high pressure building in. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term forecast period remains unsettled with several weak systems expected to impact the forecast area early next week. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Monday and bring a chance of rain to the region. Low pressure will enter the area from the southwest on Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a second round of convective weather. Given that these systems will enter from the southwest and bring warmer air and increased moisture to the region, have chances of thunder in the forecast on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures through the period appear to be above normal at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... A few showers around KCAK, KYNG, and KERI should move off to the east over the next hour. After that, conditions should remain VFR through 12Z. A round of showers and thunderstorms will move northeast through the area between 12-16Z, reaching KFDY first at 12Z and leaving KERI by 16-17Z. Added tempos for MVFR conditions during this morning round of showers and thunderstorms. Additional showers and thunderstorms will begin to slowly move east into northern Ohio late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. With this, conditions will transition into MVFR conditions with IFR conditions possibly beginning right around 06Z. Winds are generally out of the south at around 10 kts as the warm front continues to lift north of our area today. Southerly winds will increase during the day as low pressure approaches the local area, increasing the pressure gradient. Most places will be around 15-20 kts sustained SSE winds between 15-21Z with the chance for 30kts+ gusts at all TAF sites between 17-21Z. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in showers and possible thunderstorms on continues into Friday. Showers under an upper level low may keep conditions non-VFR across the region at times on Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... Low pressure over northern Lake Michigan this morning will continue east through the northern Great Lakes and into Canada. This low will extend a cold front into the region that will enter the western basin of Lake Erie this evening. Today, south to southwest winds will increase ahead of the cold front with winds 20 to 25 knots expected over the basin. With offshore flow, waves will only be in the 1 to 3 ft range in the nearshore areas, but the expected strong winds have prompted a Small Craft Advisory to be issued for all of the nearshore zones on Lake Erie for today. Once the cold front enters the lake tonight, it will begin to stall. Flow behind the front will be out of the north to northwest and flow ahead of the front will remain southwest through Friday. Low pressure will move north along the cold front on Friday and winds will increase out of the north. waves will build along the nearshore zones and another Small Craft Advisory may be needed. The low will reach the lake by Friday evening and linger over the basin through Saturday, bringing variable wind conditions over the region up to 20 knots at this time. The low will exit the area on Saturday night and a ridge of high pressure will enter the area, allowing for southerly winds to return to the basin. A weak cold front will enter the basin on Monday and flow will shift around to the northwest. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Saunders SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Sefcovic

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