Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 201950 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 350 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure has built over the area, allowing the stationary front to move southeast out of the area. Low pressure will develop in the central United States and move northeast across the Upper Great Lakes region tonight into Wednesday, moving a warm front north across the area tonight and a cold front east across the area on Wednesday. Another low pressure will move a warm front across the area Thursday morning, with a stronger cold front moving across the area on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure has allowed for a brief break in rain showers for much of the area this afternoon, although a fair amount of moisture has resulted in cloudy skies hanging around. Temperatures across the area remain in the low 50s with winds from the northeast at 5-10 knots. The brief hiatus from showers will not last long as another shortwave trough will move across the upper Midwest, where it will act in conjunction with upper level divergence to aid in strengthening a surface low pressure system as it tracks through the Upper Great Lakes region overnight into Wednesday. This system will move a warm front north through the area tonight, which will be accompanied by a strong southerly flow. A warm, moist airmass will move into the area overnight, resulting in rising temperatures and dew points overnight. Current models are continue to show marginal instability with the progression of the warm front, particularly west of I-71, so opted to keep chance of thunderstorms overnight in the forecast. On Wednesday, a weak cold front will move east across the area, marking a downward trend in overall precipitation, becoming dry by Wednesday night. High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s with overnight temperatures on Wednesday dropping into the low 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The period begins with a warm front lifting north of the area as low pressure begins to move from the Plains to the upper Great Lakes. The warm front will be situated across the northern part of the forecast area Thursday morning, lifting north of the lake by Thursday afternoon. Dry and warm conditions will persist Thursday through Friday morning. The low will lift northeast into Quebec Thursday night into Friday, forcing an attendant cold front east into the area Friday afternoon/evening. Rain chances will increase steadily with this front, with enough instability ahead of the front to warrant thunder chances as well Friday afternoon through Friday night. Currently have pops peaking between 18Z-06Z in the likely range from west to east across the area. Highs on Thursday will be in the low 70s north to the mid/upper 70s south. Highs on Friday will be in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area. After lows in the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday night, temperatures will fall into the low to upper 40s for lows Friday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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An active weather period expected this weekend into early next week across the region. The aforementioned cold front will slowly push south and east of the area Saturday, with some lingering slight chance pops mainly across the southern part of the area during the day Saturday. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for much of the area Saturday. The front will lift back north across the area Saturday night into Sunday in response to deepening low pressure that will track towards the region Sunday into Sunday night. Model consensus shows the frontal boundary becoming nearly stationary across the area Sunday through Monday night with mid range chance pops in the forecast throughout this entire time frame. Ridging tries to shift the front out of the area Tuesday. Highs will generally be in the 50s through the period, with lows generally in the 40s.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Patchy drizzle lingers across NE OH and NW PA this afternoon, but most precip should avoid the terminals for the next several hours. Regardless, MVFR/IFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will remain out of the northeast at less than 10 knots. A warm front will lift across the area tonight as a cold front approaches from the west, which will lead to another chance of showers across most of the area later this evening into Wednesday morning. Western terminals could see some scattered thunderstorms tonight, but confidence is too low to include any chances of thunder in this update. MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected across the area through early Wednesday morning, but periodic LIFR ceilings are possible. A low-level jet will likely develop late tonight through daybreak Wednesday and LLWS of 40 to 50 knots will be possible at 2,000 feet at most terminals. Winds will veer to the south and southwest tonight and will increase to 10 to 15 knots Wednesday morning. VFR conditions should return to KCLE towards the end of the TAF period as the cold front exits the forecast area to the east and high pressure begins to build into the region. Outlook...Non-VFR possible within scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms Friday and with showers Sunday. && .MARINE...
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Easterly winds across the lake will become southerly tonight as a warm front lifts across the lake. Southerly winds of 15-25 kts will become westerly behind a cold front Wednesday morning. Have hoisted a small craft advisory from Avon Point eastward beginning 12Z Wednesday to account for the strengthening offshore winds and the increased waves behind the cold front midday into the afternoon. Winds and waves will back off quickly from west to east Wednesday evening/night. Winds veer from westerly to easterly Wednesday night into Thursday as the front sets back up near the lake, moving north as a warm front into Thursday evening. Southerly winds will persist Thursday night into Friday before the front returns south of the lake, with northerly flow Saturday becoming easterly Sunday.
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&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ146.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Maines MARINE...Greenawalt

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