Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 281024 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 624 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023 ...12z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update... .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Great Lakes today will weaken and give way to another area of high pressure that will move southeast out of Central Canada to southern Quebec. High pressure at the surface and an upper level ridge aloft will dominate our local weather pattern through most of this upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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615 am update... No forecast adjustments were needed with this morning`s near term forecast update. Previous discussion... A mid and upper level ridge of high pressure continues to park itself over the Great Lakes region this morning with no signs of moving anytime soon. This upper level ridge has been acting like a weather block for our region with warm and dry conditions continuing through the rest of our Memorial Day weekend. At the surface, there is a surface high over the Great Lakes region that is slowly weakening. Another surface high pressure system will track southward from the Hudson Bay region later today into Monday. This slightly stronger surface high will become established over southern Quebec by Monday and build into the Great Lakes region for early this week. There is a low pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic region that is trying to push northward on the southern edge of this dominating ridge that is sitting on top of us. Unfortunately, it will not be able to break the strength of the ridge and not be able to bring us any much needed rainfall. We will see some blow off high level clouds from that low pressure system today into Monday but should not hinder our sunshine too much. We will continue to have fair weather conditions with temperatures slowly ticking upwards each day. High temps today will climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s areawide. A light lake breeze will keep temps just touch lower close to the lakeshore today. We start seeing the heat build a little more on our Memorial Day as we welcome in the unofficial start to Summer. It will feel summerlike with temps in the lower to middle 80s on Monday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A very weak large-scale pattern continues into the short term period. A weak upper-level low located over eastern North Carolina Monday night will slowly move northeast to the mid-Atlantic coast by Wednesday night, with broad cyclonic easterly flow over the local forecast area. Vorticity cyclonically rotating around this upper-low doesn`t appear to provide enough forcing for meaningful PoPs in the forecast at this time. Temperatures are expected to be above normal with highs in the 80s. Afternoon lake breeze is expected and will keep lakeshore communities a bit cooler. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Large-scale pattern continues to have very weak flow/forcing through the long term period. Little to no precipitation chances continue with this pattern with above normal temperatures (highs in the 80s) continuing through the long term. Daily afternoon lake breeze development is expected, resulting in cooler temperatures near the lakeshore. Latest 00Z suite of model guidance no longer has a cold front coming across the area Friday/Saturday, though the NBM still has a good amount of spread on Saturday, indicating that at least a few members still have the cold front coming in. Most members have a cold front at a later date (perhaps Mon/Tue June 5/6). Looking at CPC outlooks beyond the long term period, it looks like it`s still going to take awhile to break out of this pattern as the 6-10 day outlook shows above normal temperature and below normal precipitation, though the 8-14 day outlook has below normal temperatures but still below normal precipitation. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Great flying weather will continue today through Monday. Pilots can expect VFR conditions for this TAF period. High pressure remains in control of our weather pattern over the Great Lakes region. There will be some scattered or broken cirrus at times but fair weather skies will be the main aviation theme for the next 24 hours. Winds will be northeasterly 5 to 10 knots during the day and 5 knots or less at night. Outlook...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure remains in control for the foreseeable future with relatively weak flow. Flow generally expected to be easterly, with a northerly component in the afternoons due to lake breeze, and southerly component overnight due to land breeze. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...Griffin SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...Saunders is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.