Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 240224 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 924 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the Central Plains will continue to rapidly deepen as it moves northeast to the Great Lakes region tonight. The associated cold front will move across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday morning and a residual trough of low pressure will linger over the lakes into Monday. High pressure over the Northern Plains will build southeast into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and remain over the area through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... No significant changes to the forecast with the evening update, aside from continued minor pop and temperature adjustments to bring the forecast in line with the current obs. Original discussion... The next 48 hours will be very active across northern Ohio and NW PA. Low pressure over the Central Plains this afternoon will continue to deepen as it heads northeast towards the Great Lakes region tonight. The associated warm front located near the Ohio River will continue slowly northward this evening, crossing the area overnight. The warm front will bring a rain threat to the area tonight, which can be noted as the convection over southern Indiana this afternoon. Some embedded thunder may also reach the area as there is still a greatly sheared environment. While an isolated severe weather threat cannot be ruled out for tonight, there will be quite the inversion over the area with 925mb temperatures of 10-12C and so instability will be very limited. Temperatures overnight will have a warming trend as warm advection will prompt surface temperatures to reach the 50s over much of the area. In downsloping areas, 50s could set in faster than in other locations overnight. The low continues off to the northwest tomorrow morning and will extend a cold front across the area late Sunday morning. With the cold frontal passage, there may be a chance for some rain immediately with the front, but nothing worthy of more than a chance pops at the moment. The newsworthy item is the that strong winds will mix down across the area with the cold frontal passage and persist through the day on Sunday. With continued confidence in the 60 knots at 925mb mixing to the surface, have upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for the entire forecast area. The main time period for high winds will be with the cold front and through the afternoon hours, but have the warning starting somewhat early to account for some mixing in the warm sector ahead of the front and going through the overnight as winds will linger. The strongest winds will likely be along the lakeshore. Behind the front on Sunday, any lingering rain will change over to snow as temperatures plunge across the region. By Sunday night, 850 mb temperatures over the region will be in the 12 to 15 degree range below zero Celsius, translating to surface temperatures in lower 20s to lower teens. A lake effect snow setup will be present, especially with the winds and warmer temperatures likely creating ice-free areas on Lake Erie. Several inches of snow are possible in NW PA Sunday night into Monday and will be further addressed down the road. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Broad upper level ridge will move east into the lower 48 states early in the week and begin to push the upper level trough responsible for deep Great Lakes storm out of the area. The upper level ridge will begin to amplify slightly over the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains resulting in some deepening of the broad trough over the eastern U.S. by Wednesday. Surface high pressure ridge will build southeast into the central Great Lakes region through Tuesday. The ridge will keep flow aligned enough to support some lake effect snow Monday across the northeast with some accumulating snow. Gusty winds leftover from the exiting strong storm system will likely cause some blowing snow across the snow belt areas. Models differ in their solutions for Wednesday with the European remaining fairly dry for Wednesday with a possible jet streak and associated moisture moving southeast into the area. GFS is much more pessimistic with a surface low moving east across the area. Will keep a chance for rain/snow across the area Wednesday and minimal at best. Cold air advection will take place Tuesday as cold pool of air begins to exit off to the east. As surface high pressure moves east across the central Great Lakes, some weak warm air advection will take place by Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level ridge is expected to move east to the eastern United States by Friday. In the process, the upper level ridge will amplify as an upper level low pressure system dives into the western Great Lakes by Saturday. As the ridge shifts east, some moderation in temperatures will take place as slight warm air advection begins to move into the region. Unfortunately, as the upper level low pressure system moves southeast toward the Great Lakes, a fairly cold pool of air will move southeast toward the local area with the low pressure system. This should bring a drop in temperatures for the early part of the weekend. Also, in response to the upper level low pressure system, a wave of low pressure will exit east out of the northern Rockies and move east to the lower Great Lakes by Saturday. This low will bring another round of rain/snow to the area by the end of the week and early part of the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... Strong low pressure will move northeast of the terminals through the period, with a warm front lifting north tonight and a cold front moving east across the terminals around/after 12Z. Some IFR ceilings will be present with the warm front through the first half of the TAF period, although some improvement is possible through 06Z east of KMFD to KCLE. Rain chances will be highest from 06Z through 12Z across the area before the cold front moves east through the terminals. Some LLWS is possible overnight, with the highest confidence across northwest Ohio including KFDY and KTOL, where the strongest 925mb wind max will be present. The passage of the cold front will usher in the potential for wind gusts out of the west/southwest of 50 kts or more at the terminals. The strongest gusts will likely be at KTOL, KCLE and KERI, closer to the low center. Some MVFR ceilings and -SN will briefly spread across the area from 12Z to 18Z Sunday, with some lingering -SN at KCLE, KTOL and KERI. Wind gusts will subside after the end of the period. OUTLOOK...Non- VFR likely Sunday with lingering showers and the development of lake effect snow Sunday night. && .MARINE... Gale warnings for the western basin and storm warnings for the rest of the lake are already in effect at this time. Strong low pressure system will move northeast toward the lakes region and rapidly deepen into a strong storm. Winds above the surface are expected to be well into the 50s and even 60 knot range and this wind is expected to reach the surface; especially Sunday morning into Sunday night after the passage of the cold front. There is the possibility that stronger wind gusts could occur just before the cold front moves east of the area. As the low pressure system moves northeast of the area Sunday night into Monday, winds will gradually diminish Monday. Winds will gradually diminish to light and variable Tuesday and continue into Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure becomes dominant across the area. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089. High Wind Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047. PA...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Low Water Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ142>144-162>164. Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ142>145-162>165. Storm Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ146>149-166>169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...Lombardy is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.