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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 201950
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
350 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure has built over the area, allowing the
stationary front to move southeast out of the area. Low pressure
will develop in the central United States and move northeast across
the Upper Great Lakes region tonight into Wednesday, moving a warm
front north across the area tonight and a cold front east across the
area on Wednesday. Another low pressure will move a warm front
across the area Thursday morning, with a stronger cold front moving
across the area on Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure has allowed for a brief break in rain showers for much
of the area this afternoon, although a fair amount of moisture has
resulted in cloudy skies hanging around.
Temperatures across the area remain in the low 50s with winds from
the northeast at 5-10 knots.

The brief hiatus from showers will not last long as another
shortwave trough will move across the upper Midwest, where it will
act in conjunction with upper level divergence to aid in
strengthening a surface low pressure system as it tracks through the
Upper Great Lakes region overnight into Wednesday. This system will
move a warm front north through the area tonight, which will be
accompanied by a strong southerly flow. A warm, moist airmass will
move into the area overnight, resulting in rising temperatures and
dew points overnight. Current models are continue to show marginal
instability with the progression of the warm front, particularly
west of I-71, so opted to keep chance of thunderstorms overnight in
the forecast. On Wednesday, a weak cold front will move east across
the area, marking a downward trend in overall precipitation,
becoming dry by Wednesday night. High temperatures on Wednesday are
expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s with overnight temperatures
on Wednesday dropping into the low 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The period begins with a warm front lifting north of the area as low
pressure begins to move from the Plains to the upper Great Lakes.
The warm front will be situated across the northern part of the
forecast area Thursday morning, lifting north of the lake by
Thursday afternoon. Dry and warm conditions will persist Thursday
through Friday morning. The low will lift northeast into Quebec
Thursday night into Friday, forcing an attendant cold front east
into the area Friday afternoon/evening. Rain chances will increase
steadily with this front, with enough instability ahead of the front
to warrant thunder chances as well Friday afternoon through Friday
night. Currently have pops peaking between 18Z-06Z in the likely
range from west to east across the area. Highs on Thursday will be
in the low 70s north to the mid/upper 70s south. Highs on Friday
will be in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area. After lows
in the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday night, temperatures will fall
into the low to upper 40s for lows Friday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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An active weather period expected this weekend into early next week
across the region. The aforementioned cold front will slowly push
south and east of the area Saturday, with some lingering slight
chance pops mainly across the southern part of the area during the
day Saturday. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for much of the
area Saturday. The front will lift back north across the area
Saturday night into Sunday in response to deepening low pressure
that will track towards the region Sunday into Sunday night. Model
consensus shows the frontal boundary becoming nearly stationary
across the area Sunday through Monday night with mid range chance
pops in the forecast throughout this entire time frame. Ridging
tries to shift the front out of the area Tuesday. Highs will
generally be in the 50s through the period, with lows generally in
the 40s.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Patchy drizzle lingers across NE OH and NW PA this afternoon,
but most precip should avoid the terminals for the next several
hours. Regardless, MVFR/IFR conditions will persist through the
remainder of the afternoon. Winds will remain out of the
northeast at less than 10 knots.

A warm front will lift across the area tonight as a cold front
approaches from the west, which will lead to another chance of
showers across most of the area later this evening into
Wednesday morning. Western terminals could see some scattered
thunderstorms tonight, but confidence is too low to include any
chances of thunder in this update. MVFR/IFR ceilings are
expected across the area through early Wednesday morning, but
periodic LIFR ceilings are possible. A low-level jet will likely
develop late tonight through daybreak Wednesday and LLWS of 40
to 50 knots will be possible at 2,000 feet at most terminals.
Winds will veer to the south and southwest tonight and will
increase to 10 to 15 knots Wednesday morning.

VFR conditions should return to KCLE towards the end of the TAF
period as the cold front exits the forecast area to the east and
high pressure begins to build into the region.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible within scattered showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorms Friday and with showers Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
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Easterly winds across the lake will become southerly tonight as a
warm front lifts across the lake. Southerly winds of 15-25 kts will
become westerly behind a cold front Wednesday morning. Have hoisted
a small craft advisory from Avon Point eastward beginning 12Z
Wednesday to account for the strengthening offshore winds and the
increased waves behind the cold front midday into the afternoon.
Winds and waves will back off quickly from west to east Wednesday
evening/night. Winds veer from westerly to easterly Wednesday night
into Thursday as the front sets back up near the lake, moving north
as a warm front into Thursday evening. Southerly winds will persist
Thursday night into Friday before the front returns south of the
lake, with northerly flow Saturday becoming easterly Sunday.
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&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     LEZ147>149.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for
     LEZ146.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Greenawalt