Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 051346 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 946 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Surface trough will shift east this morning as high pressure builds into the region from the middle Mississippi River Valley. This high will persist into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A few showers remain near Cuyahoga, Lake, and Ashtabula Counties. Otherwise, those few showers expected to dissipate this afternoon with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Original Discussion... Surface trough still lingers near the south shore of Lake Erie with a land breeze now creating convergence offshore. The few showers along the land breeze will eventually move onshore and dissipate by late morning. A couple waterspouts are possible through the morning. A few showers could persist into mid afternoon across NW PA. Otherwise cooler and drier conditions are expected. Highs today should range from around 70 across NW PA to the mid 70`s near and west of an I-77 line. CLear and cooler tonight with a decent land breeze expected along the lakeshore. So waterspouts could develop again Thursday morning. Lows tonight in the 50s inland and around 60 along the lakeshore. A couple spots across inland NW PA could dip into the upper 40`s. Thursday will be dry with highs in the 70`s to near 80. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough will move east across the area during this forecast period forcing a vigorous positive vorticity maximum east into the area as well. This upper level feature will spawn a surface low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and move the low northeast along the western slopes of the Appalachian Mountains. The low will bring with it some moisture that will extend back west into the eastern portions of the forecast area by Friday afternoon. With the threat of upper level support from the vorticity advection and the upper level trough, can`t rule out a few showers and thunderstorms over the extreme eastern portions of the area Friday afternoon. Instability from day time heating will also assist in possible afternoon convection developing. Otherwise, high pressure over the local area Thursday night will shift east extending a ridge back west over the forecast area through Friday morning. The surface low pressure will extend a trough north into the eastern half of the forecast area by Friday afternoon. The trough will move east of the area Friday night allowing a surface high pressure to build east Saturday followed by a warm front Saturday night. The front appears it will move through the area dry. As warm air advection begins to take place, expecting temperatures in the lower 80s Friday and lower to middle 80s Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the 50s Thursday night and Friday night but in the upper 50s east to lower and middle 60s elsewhere Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper level flow will become nearly zonal during this period and result in a fast moving flow pattern and rapid succession of ridging and shortwave troughs. The first in a series of shortwave troughs is progged to move quickly east across the local area in the mean flow with associated positive vorticity maximum and moisture Sunday into Sunday night. A triple barreled series of shortwaves will shoot east across the area Monday through Tuesday night and may result in possible MCS formation if all of the ingredients come together. Increasing warm air advection will push into the local area by Monday night into Tuesday as 1000 to 500 mb thicknesses increase to 578 Monday night into Tuesday. Will keep a mention of showers and thunderstorm chances Sunday through Tuesday night across the area. Highs through the period will be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees and lows will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Lake effect cloud cover and a few showers will be possible from the Islands eastward across NE OH into NW PA through the morning. Expect most of the MVFR ceilings to occur within 30 miles of the lakeshore from east of Cleveland into NW PA. A few showers may persist NE OH into NW PA into the afternoon with any MVFR conditions near them. Otherwise VFR conditions are anticipated. West to northwest at 4 to 10 knots. Strongest winds will be closer to the lakeshore. Outlook...Non-VFR in scattered showers and storms on Sunday. && .MARINE... Winds will gradually shift from the northwest and then become light and variable by tonight. Northeast flow 5 to 10 knots will develop Thursday afternoon and then become light and variable through the weekend. No headlines are expected during this forecast period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...MM/Saunders SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...MM MARINE...Lombardy

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