Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 090617 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 117 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening cold front over southern Ontario will stall north of the lake overnight as low pressure takes shape over the central Plains. This deepening low pressure will move along the cold front and should track across southern Ontario. A strong cold front will move across the region Monday night. Colder air arrives in the wake of the front with an upper level trough lingering into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Latest regional radar currently shows some shower activity finally moving into the central Mississippi Valley region at this time. Expecting the rain to gradually move northeast overnight toward the local area. Timing looks reasonable in current forecast so will not make any major changes. Previous Discussion... Increasing southerly winds will assist in increasing the return of low level moisture and bring warmer temperatures into the region. Low pressure will deepen as it moves across the central Mississippi River Valley. The increased warm advection ahead of the low will help to produce a period of rainfall that that move across the region from southwest to northeast last tonight into Monday. The heaviest rainfall will be Monday morning/afternoon. Increased cloud cover tonight and the warm advection will keep lows in the 40s. Highs Monday afternoon should reach into the lower to middle 50s. Winds will be gusty through the afternoon but should remain below advisory levels. The gusty winds continue into the night but believe the periods of rain will keep the region from mixing too deep. However it will be something for later shift to monitor. Otherwise expect to see the showers decrease from west to east after midnight. Cant rule out a mix with some snow as the precipitation ends, but now accumulations expected. The cold front will cross the area overnight with lows falling into the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Minor forecast changes with the short term period, with a slight downward trend in lake effect pops through the period. A cold front will be east of the forecast area at the onset of the period, as low pressure deepens northward through Quebec. The flow behind this front will be west to southwest Tuesday into Wednesday, with limited synoptic moisture outside of the 850mb layer. Instability looks to be marginal in this period as well, so backed down to low likely pops confined to northern Erie county. A secondary front will veer winds more northwest late Wednesday through Wednesday night, but very dry 850 mb air will quickly move southeast across the Great Lakes, which should curtail any appreciable accums across the local area. Ridging will build northeast into the region overnight, which will slowly bring an end to lake effect pops. Temperatures Tuesday will remain steady or fall behind the front, with low 30s by the afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 20s, with the current forecast colder than guidance. Lows Wednesday night will fall into the teens. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will build east of the region Thursday, with a period of prolonged Gulf return/WAA into the weekend. Moisture return increases Saturday/Sunday, with a southern stream wave lifting across the northeast CONUS and a northern stream wave moving into the Great Lakes bringing increase pop chances, although synoptic details lead to lower confidence at this point. Highs in the low 30s Thursday will warm into the 40s for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Moisture will continue to increase across the region into Monday with ceilings lowering to IFR at most sites by 14Z. A few showers are possible prior to 12Z with widespread rain spreading in from the west after 12Z. Rain will continue for much of the day with MVFR visibilities common and brief periods of IFR in heavier showers. Southerly winds will be breezy at times with gusts of 20-25 knots late morning through the afternoon. Drier air will wrap in from the west with a cold front during the evening. Drier air will initially wrap in from Central Indiana across Lake Erie with showers becoming more scattered during the evening with gradual improvement to ceilings and visibilities. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR ceilings continue into Tuesday then at ERI Tuesday night with scattered snow showers Tuesday night. Non- VFR returns at times with a cold front on Wednesday, lingering into Thursday in NW PA. && .MARINE... Have extended the Small Craft Advisory through the night. Little change is expected with the wind and downsloping will keep winds around 20 knots for much of the night. Winds will generally stay out of the south to southwest through Monday around 15-20 kts. A cold front crossing the lake Monday night into Tuesday will likely prompt another Small Craft Advisory as winds become westerly 20-25 kts. Winds decrease slightly Tuesday night but ramp up again Wednesday into Wednesday night, as another front crosses the lake. Winds become northwest behind this front into Thursday, with a brief period of 25-30 kts possible Wednesday night. Winds subside Thursday into Friday with high pressure building across the lake. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LEZ149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...Lombardy/MM SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...KEC MARINE...Greenawalt/Oudeman

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