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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 281024
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
624 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

...12z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes today will weaken and give way
to another area of high pressure that will move southeast out of
Central Canada to southern Quebec. High pressure at the surface
and an upper level ridge aloft will dominate our local weather
pattern through most of this upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
615 am update...
No forecast adjustments were needed with this morning`s near
term forecast update.

Previous discussion...
A mid and upper level ridge of high pressure continues to park
itself over the Great Lakes region this morning with no signs of
moving anytime soon. This upper level ridge has been acting
like a weather block for our region with warm and dry
conditions continuing through the rest of our Memorial Day
weekend. At the surface, there is a surface high over the Great
Lakes region that is slowly weakening. Another surface high
pressure system will track southward from the Hudson Bay region
later today into Monday. This slightly stronger surface high
will become established over southern Quebec by Monday and
build into the Great Lakes region for early this week.

There is a low pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic region
that is trying to push northward on the southern edge of this
dominating ridge that is sitting on top of us. Unfortunately, it
will not be able to break the strength of the ridge and not be
able to bring us any much needed rainfall. We will see some blow
off high level clouds from that low pressure system today into
Monday but should not hinder our sunshine too much. We will
continue to have fair weather conditions with temperatures
slowly ticking upwards each day. High temps today will climb
into the upper 70s and lower 80s areawide. A light lake breeze
will keep temps just touch lower close to the lakeshore today.
We start seeing the heat build a little more on our Memorial Day
as we welcome in the unofficial start to Summer. It will feel
summerlike with temps in the lower to middle 80s on Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A very weak large-scale pattern continues into the short term
period. A weak upper-level low located over eastern North Carolina
Monday night will slowly move northeast to the mid-Atlantic coast by
Wednesday night, with broad cyclonic easterly flow over the local
forecast area. Vorticity cyclonically rotating around this upper-low
doesn`t appear to provide enough forcing for meaningful PoPs in the
forecast at this time. Temperatures are expected to be above normal
with highs in the 80s. Afternoon lake breeze is expected and will
keep lakeshore communities a bit cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Large-scale pattern continues to have very weak flow/forcing through
the long term period. Little to no precipitation chances continue
with this pattern with above normal temperatures (highs in the 80s)
continuing through the long term. Daily afternoon lake breeze
development is expected, resulting in cooler temperatures near the
lakeshore. Latest 00Z suite of model guidance no longer has a cold
front coming across the area Friday/Saturday, though the NBM still
has a good amount of spread on Saturday, indicating that at least a
few members still have the cold front coming in. Most members have
a cold front at a later date (perhaps Mon/Tue June 5/6). Looking at
CPC outlooks beyond the long term period, it looks like it`s still
going to take awhile to break out of this pattern as the 6-10 day
outlook shows above normal temperature and below normal
precipitation, though the 8-14 day outlook has below normal
temperatures but still below normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Great flying weather will continue today through Monday. Pilots
can expect VFR conditions for this TAF period. High pressure
remains in control of our weather pattern over the Great Lakes
region. There will be some scattered or broken cirrus at times
but fair weather skies will be the main aviation theme for the
next 24 hours. Winds will be northeasterly 5 to 10 knots during
the day and 5 knots or less at night.

Outlook...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains in control for the foreseeable future
with relatively weak flow. Flow generally expected to be
easterly, with a northerly component in the afternoons due to
lake breeze, and southerly component overnight due to land
breeze.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Saunders