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185
FXUS61 KCLE 070735
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
335 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
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Rain showers have trended more widespread this morning.
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&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
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1) Warm, humid, and unsettled with periodic showers and
thunderstorms through Saturday.

2) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday night and
Monday then turning progressively cooler and less humid the rest of
the week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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KEY MESSAGE 1...

An active pattern will remain in place through the
weekend due to broad WNW mid/upper flow across the Great Lakes
between a broad trough over south central Canada and a broad ridge
over the Desert Southwest and southern Plains. Multiple weak
mid/upper shortwaves and associated surface waves emanating out of
the broad trough will progress through the WNW flow and interact
with a wavering quasi-stationary frontal boundary between the Ohio
Valley and southern Great Lakes. This will support periods of
convection given a seasonably warm and moist environment that will
remain in place.

Starting off this morning, one weak mid/upper shortwave is
progressing slowly east across northern Ohio. RAP analysis shows a
weak surface reflection beneath an area of upper diffluence and mid-
level PVA, and this is encouraging broad isentropic ascent and
focusing warm air advection near the frontal boundary. As a result,
rain has blossomed in coverage the past few hours, with enough
elevated instability for embedded convection as well. Expect this
area of rain and embedded thunder to continue slowly moving east
across northern Ohio early this morning, reaching NW PA by about
11Z. Heavy downpours will occur within any convection in this moist
environment (PWATs near 2 inches), but progressive movement should
limit any flooding concerns.

Behind this morning`s shortwave, the front will stall west-east
across the CWA, but confidence is low on exactly how far south it
will push since another shortwave and an associated weak surface low
will be approaching for tonight. The presence of the boundary
overhead, diurnal heating, and the abundant low-level moisture will
support another round of scattered convection this afternoon and
evening, but confidence is low on coverage and location since this
morning`s rain and thunder trended higher in coverage. Lingering
clouds and showers through late this morning may limit diurnal
heating and keep instability a little weaker for the afternoon.
Nevertheless, expect at least some afternoon thunderstorms, and the
lake breeze boundary as well as differential heating boundaries
farther inland may serve as initiation points depending on the exact
location of the synoptic front. Locally heavy rainfall possible once
again wherever any storms can develop.

The next aforementioned mid/upper shortwave looks to progress east
across the southern Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley tonight. This
will once again have decent mid-level PVA and upper diffluence, and
with weak instability persisting overnight again, expect showers and
embedded convection throughout the night to be quite widespread in
coverage. In fact, coverage tonight may be greater than this
afternoon due to the forcing moving overhead. A trailing cold front
behind this wave looks to move through Saturday afternoon and
overtake the old frontal boundary, effectively pushing everything
south for a brief period Saturday night and Sunday, but before that
happens, one last round of scattered convection is expected ahead of
the front Saturday. Coverage will again be dependent on the amount
of instability after the overnight/early morning activity. Areas
that see the most frequent convection between this morning and
Saturday evening could experience flooding of low-lying, poor
drainage, and urban areas, as well as rises on area rivers and
streams since the environment will be conducive to heavy rainfall
rates (high freezing levels, deep warm cloud layer, PWATs near 2
inches, and tall, skinny CAPE).

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Weak high pressure will briefly bring dry and less
humid conditions Saturday night and Sunday, but the front will
retreat back north as a warm front Sunday night as the high drifts
east ahead of a potent mid/upper shortwave dropping into the Upper
Midwest. Scattered convection is possible in the warm air advection
near the retreating front, but there will also be an MCS ongoing
upstream over the western Great Lakes driven by a 35-40 knot low-
level jet and strong warm/moist advection. If this MCS can survive
into our region, then damaging winds and heavy rain are possible
late Sunday night. The best chance for this would be in NW and north
central Ohio and the western half of Lake Erie before it outruns the
best support and instability.

The strong shortwave will cross the central Great Lakes Monday, with
a trailing cold front dropping across the region by Monday night.
Mid-level flow increasing to 40-50+ knots as the shortwave passes
will support over 40 knots of deep layer effective shear, so
depending on how overnight convection plays out in terms of clouds
and outflow boundaries, additional severe convection is possible
Monday afternoon and evening, possibly in the form of an organized
MCS give a WNW shear vector orientation perpendicular to the
convection. If such a system materializes, then all modes of severe
weather would be possible, with wind being the biggest hazard in
addition to heavy rainfall. There is high bust potential with
Monday`s forecast since as said, it all hinges on how much lingers
from Sunday night. If widespread convection Sunday night leaves
abundant cloud cover, showers, and outflow boundaries, then the new
convection will develop outside of our area. However, the ceiling is
high Monday if sufficient instability can build. Stay tuned for more
updates.

The broad trough over southern Canada will slowly deepen into the
Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. aided by a series of shortwaves
Monday night through the end of the week. This will bring
progressively cooler and less humid conditions from Monday
night onward as the frontal boundary slowly pushes south of the
area, with periodic showers given the broad cyclonic flow and
shortwave passages. Highs will be in the 70s by the second half
of the week, with 50s at night.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Rain continues to fill in across northern Ohio early this
morning. KTOL is just missing out on some of the more robust
shower activity but all other terminals should see some rain
with lowering ceilings through the morning hours. By daybreak,
rain should be along and east of a KCLE to KMFD line and
continuing east. A break in activity will develop over the
airspace behind the rain activity. Terminals that get that break
earlier in the morning may see some MVFR ceilings and visibility
develop in Northwest Ohio. With a bit of clearing, there should
be some scattered redevelopment, including some thunder chances.
The best areas for storm coverage will be the southeast
terminals including KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG but very low confidence
in exact storm timing. Have some mix of PROB30 and vicinity rain
and TS chances at all terminals to give some indication of
activity and possible non-VFR but additional tweaks will be
needed as new showers/storms develop this afternoon. Activity
will shift to scattered rain toward the end of the TAF period.
Depending on rain coverage earlier in the day, some fog/mist may
develop as conditions clear with the break in activity. This
will need to be addressed further in the next set of TAFs. Winds
through the period will be generally light with a south to
southwest direction favored.

Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday,
Monday, and Tuesday and may bring some intermittent non-VFR to
the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
The warm sector south to southwest flow will continue over the
next 36 hours or so across the lake as low pressure over the
Hudson Bay will extend a cold front across the Great Lakes
region. Some shower and storm activity will be in the area of
the lake today and tomorrow with good moisture across the
region. The cold front will cross the lake on Saturday night and
allow for a brief period of elevated northwest, onshore flow.
Winds are unlikely to be strong enough to allow for waves to
immediately build and a surface ridge will be quick to enter on
Sunday to flip winds to the south again. Another weak low will
move through the Great Lakes region on Monday and Tuesday
allowing for southwest to west flow over the lake and shower and
storm activity. Overall, with mostly offshore flow expected
through the forecast period, marine headlines are not expected
at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic