National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 271145
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
645 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will push south through the area this
morning. High pressure will build across the region this
afternoon through Tuesday night. A weak cold front will drop
south into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday before high
pressure returns to the area through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No big changes with the early morning update, aside from some
minor temperatures adjustments. Also switched the wording of the
freezing drizzle potential to slight chance, given a bit more
conditional setup with current upstream cloud top temperatures.

Original discussion...
A weak surface trough currently just north of the forecast area
will slowly sink south through the area today. The main focus
for the daytime weather is lake enhanced/effect precipitation
that will primarily affect the snow belt. Two main factors for
p-type are surface temperatures and the potential loss of ice in
the cloud leading to more drizzle/freezing drizzle vs. snow. No
big changes made from the previous forecast with temperatures or
pops. Snowfall amounts have been lowered slightly for portions
of the snowbelt, with the highest amounts in the higher terrain
of NW PA, where accums around an inch today and another 1-2
inches tonight are possible. Have opted for a bit more
drizzle/freezing drizzle mention in the forecast, with the
prospects of losing ice in the cloud noted on most of the hi-res
model soundings midday through this evening. With marginal
surface temperatures, any freezing drizzle should be low impact,
so have opted for patchy wording. Currently, immediate upstream
cloud top temperatures are still in the ice layer, although
there are pockets farther north of cloud top temperatures near
or just warmer than -10C.

Lake effect will persist tonight into Tuesday as a thermal
trough pushes across the lake, before diminishing slightly
Tuesday morning as drier air works into the area. An upstream
shortwave will approach the area from the northwest late Tuesday
into Tuesday night, which may result in a slight uptick in
precip coverage. Highs today will be in the mid 30s, and a
degree or two cooler on Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Tuesday night with models showing high
pressure moving east across Ontario into Quebec. A weak
backdoor cold front will approach the area from the northeast,
likely moving into the area during the overnight hours.
Wednesday the front will push further into Ohio stalling in
Central Ohio. Guidance with this front was dry however a nearly
saturated layer below 5kft suggests possibly a few snow showers
would be possible so do have a low chance pop dropping to slight
chance moving in from the northeast. For Wednesday however,
moisture decreases so will have a dry forecast. Wednesday night
through Thursday night, models differ significantly enough to
have low confidence. For now will go with a model blend which
favors the drier GFS which builds the Canadian high south into
the region through the balance of the period. Highs will reach
the lower 30s Wednesday and the mid 30s Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday will pick up with the GFS which takes the surface high east
of the area during the day. Saturday, a cold front will
approach front the west, extending south from low pressure over
Hudson Bay. The GFS also shows weak low pressure moving into the
Ohio Valley from the southwest with sufficient moisture for
showers. Temps aloft and highs during the bring precip type into
question so will have a mix of rain and snow showers with low
chance pops. Moisture will remain across the area through Sunday
so will continue with chance pops across the area. Also, with
flow off the lake Saturday night and Sunday into nwrn PA, will
boost pops to likely there. Highs Friday upper 30s, highs
Saturday and Sunday closer to 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Low ceilings expected at the terminals through the period as a
slow moving trough sinks south across the region. IFR ceilings
will improve to MVFR during the day, with a return to IFR at
most sites later in the period. Lake effect -SN will impact
mainly KCLE, KERI mixing with -RA early, and KYNG. West winds
will slowly veer northwest by the second half of the period.

.OUTLOOK...Widespread non-VFR likely Monday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Will drop the small craft advisory for the lake off Cleveland
leaving the the nearshore waters east of Willowick to Ripley in
effect through 10AM as winds diminish.

For today, west winds will turn northwest and continue to diminish
to between 10 and 15 knots as a trough drops south across the lake
and high pressure begins to build in from the west. Winds will
remain from the northwest at 15 knots or less tonight through
Tuesday night. Wednesday, light winds will turn more northerly
behind a weak backdoor cold front dropping across the lake from
the northeast. Flow will veer to northeast Wednesday night and
Thursday but remain light at 10 knots or less. Flow will veer to
southwest Thursday night into Friday as high pressure moves
east of the lake. No headlines expected beyond this morning`s
small craft advisory.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...TK