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000
FXUS61 KCLE 051346
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
946 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface trough will shift east this morning as high pressure
builds into the region from the middle Mississippi River
Valley. This high will persist into early Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few showers remain near Cuyahoga, Lake, and Ashtabula
Counties. Otherwise, those few showers expected to dissipate
this afternoon with mostly sunny skies this afternoon.

Original Discussion...
Surface trough still lingers near the south shore of Lake Erie
with a land breeze now creating convergence offshore. The few
showers along the land breeze will eventually move onshore and
dissipate by late morning. A couple waterspouts are possible
through the morning. A few showers could persist into mid
afternoon across NW PA. Otherwise cooler and drier conditions
are expected. Highs today should range from around 70 across NW
PA to the mid 70`s near and west of an I-77 line.

CLear and cooler tonight with a decent land breeze expected
along the lakeshore. So waterspouts could develop again Thursday
morning. Lows tonight in the 50s inland and around 60 along the
lakeshore. A couple spots across inland NW PA could dip into the
upper 40`s.

Thursday will be dry with highs in the 70`s to near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will move east across the area during this
forecast period forcing a vigorous positive vorticity maximum east
into the area as well. This upper level feature will spawn a surface
low  pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and move the low northeast
along the western slopes of the Appalachian Mountains.  The low will
bring with it some moisture that will extend back west into the
eastern portions of the forecast area by Friday afternoon.  With the
threat of upper level support from the vorticity advection and the
upper level trough, can`t rule out a few showers and thunderstorms
over the extreme eastern portions of the area Friday afternoon.
Instability from day time heating will also assist in possible
afternoon convection developing. Otherwise, high pressure over the
local area Thursday night will shift east extending a ridge back
west over the forecast area through Friday morning.  The surface low
pressure will extend a trough north into the eastern half of the
forecast area by Friday afternoon. The trough will move east of the
area Friday night allowing a surface high pressure to build east
Saturday followed by a warm front Saturday night.  The front appears
it will move through the area dry. As warm air advection begins to
take place, expecting temperatures in the lower 80s Friday and lower
to middle 80s Saturday.  Overnight lows will  be in the 50s Thursday
night and Friday night but in the upper 50s east to lower and middle
60s elsewhere Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level flow will become nearly zonal during this period and
result in a fast moving flow pattern and rapid succession of ridging
and shortwave troughs.

The first in a series of shortwave troughs is progged to move
quickly east across the local area in the mean flow with associated
positive vorticity maximum and moisture Sunday into Sunday night. A
triple barreled series of shortwaves will shoot east across the
area Monday through Tuesday night and may result in possible MCS
formation if all of the ingredients come together.  Increasing warm
air advection will push into the local area by Monday night into
Tuesday as 1000 to 500 mb thicknesses increase to 578 Monday night
into Tuesday. Will keep a mention of showers and thunderstorm
chances Sunday through Tuesday night across the area.

Highs through the period will be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees
and lows will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Lake effect cloud cover and a few showers will be possible from
the Islands eastward across NE OH into NW PA through the
morning. Expect most of the MVFR ceilings to occur within 30
miles of the lakeshore from east of Cleveland into NW PA.
A few showers may persist NE OH into NW PA into the afternoon
with any MVFR conditions near them. Otherwise VFR conditions are
anticipated.

West to northwest at 4 to 10 knots. Strongest winds will be
closer to the lakeshore.

Outlook...Non-VFR in scattered showers and storms on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will gradually shift from the northwest and then become
light and variable by tonight. Northeast flow 5 to 10 knots will
develop Thursday afternoon and then become light and variable
through the weekend. No headlines are expected during this
forecast period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Lombardy