Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 080230 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 930 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the central Great Lakes will drift southeastward to the southeastern United States by Monday afternoon, allowing a warm front to lift north across the region. Low pressure over Ontario and over the Plains will keep a warm southwesterly wind over Ohio and western Pennsylvania into Wednesday night. A cold front will sag into the region by Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 930 update... There were no changes needed to the ongoing forecast this evening with very quiet weather thanks to high pressure. Milder temperatures and gusty southwest winds will be the main weather highlights on Monday. Previous discussion... High pressure will take control overnight with any remaining flurries across NW PA ending shortly after sunset. Lows tonight will range from the teens across NW PA to the mid 20`s across NW OH. A warm front will lift across the region tonight into early Monday with increasing southwesterly winds. These gusty southwest winds will usher much warmer air into the region. The overall atmosphere will be fairly dry but believe we will see some middle and high level cloud cover. Highs on Monday look to be in the upper 40`s across inland NW PA, where we need to melt a little bit of snow, to the mid 60`s across the western CWA. A weakening cold front will sag southward across Lake Erie Monday night. Definitely should see an increase in cloud cover. There are low chances of sprinkles along it as it interacts with the higher terrain of NW PA Monday evening into the overnight. It is very dry but there may be just enough moisture lifted from the lake to produce some light rain or drizzle for a few hours. Elsewhere it looks to be a dry frontal passage. Lows Monday night will range from the mid 30`s to around 40. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An established high pressure at the surface across the East Coast, and associated ridge aloft, will allow for dry conditions to persist into Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s with overnight lows dipping into the 40s. The coolest part of the area will likely be in NW PA as southwesterly winds will take longer to usher the warm air into that portion of the CWA. Although no precipitation is expected until Wednesday evening into the overnight hours, there will be an increase in cloud cover across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday due to increased moisture and warm air advection across the area ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Wednesday afternoon will mark the transition to a more active weather pattern over the area. By this time, much of the Ohio River Valley will lie under an increased gradient between an approaching low pressure and departing high pressure. As a result, winds are expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots, with the strongest winds expected in the western portion of the CWA. Winds will persist into Thursday, with the strongest Wednesday overnight. In conjunction with increasing winds, a weak boundary will begin to produce showers. With above average temperatures, all precipitation will remain as rain. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... During the long term period, the area will be impacted by 2 separate low pressure systems. The first system will track just north of the Great Lakes region toward Ontario. This system will move a cold front east across the area Thursday morning into the afternoon. Strong upper level divergence will aid the frontal boundary is creating widespread rain showers that will begin to diminish from west to east by Friday morning. QPF values continue to diverge in agreement from model to model. Some models suggest more than an inch of total QPF by Friday evening. The QPF forecast will need to closely be monitored in the coming days as many factors will play critical roles in how much precipitation the area actually sees. If the boundary is slower to move through the area, or possibly stalls, there would be an increase in total QPF across the area, and vice versa. This will be a key factor in the potential for flooding across the area, although right now the risk appears to be low. Models have been inconsistent with how to handle the transition period between this departing low and the arrival of impacts from a low pressure originating in the southern Plains. As a result, have opted to decrease the chance of PoPs Friday afternoon into the evening, although it will be a short lived hiatus. On Friday, the aforementioned low pressure originating in the southern Plains is expected to approach the area from the southwest, moving a warm front north across the area by Friday overnight. This boundary may remain just south of the area, so with increased uncertainty, have opted to keep low chance of PoPs. All precipitation during the day should remain as rain, with some snow showers possibly mixing in during the overnight period. By the weekend, high pressure should begin to push southeast across the area. Temperatures throughout this period will begin to shift back to near normal high and low temperatures for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with this TAF update. Clear skies and light winds tonight will transition to gusty southwest winds late Monday morning through the afternoon. Light southerly winds around 5 knots is expected tonight. South-Southwest winds will increase 12 to 15 knots by midday Monday through the afternoon. Gusts over the eastern portions of the area will be up to 20 knots possible Monday afternoon. Gusts will likely be around 25 knots west of a line from KCLE to KMFD and much of northwest Ohio. The gusts will relax closer to sunset Monday evening. High level cloudiness will increase on Monday but continue to remain fair skies. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .MARINE... High pressure over the area will allow for light and variable winds across Lake Erie into Monday morning. On Monday, the western Great Lakes will be positioned on under an upper level ridge with a shortwave trough moving just to the northeast of Lake Erie. An associated LLJ with this shortwave will result in a brief increase of winds from the southwest to 10 to 15 knots, weakening to 5 to 10 knots overnight on Monday as the shortwave departs the area. On Tuesday, a high pressure slowly departing to the southeast will allow for winds across Lake Erie to remain light and variable into the early overnight hours. The primary concern for this forecast period is on Wednesday into Thursday, as an increased gradient across Lake Erie will result in winds ramping up from 10 to 15 knots Wednesday morning to 20 to 25 knots Wednesday night ahead of a cold front. Current forecast has the highest waves during this time to be 2 to 4 feet and are expected to remain in the open waters. Once the cold front moves across the area on Thursday, winds will shift and weaken, becoming northwesterly at 10 to 15 knots. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...Griffin/MM SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...Campbell

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