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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 242321
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
721 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through Saturday but will drift
eastward. A warm front lifts across the region Saturday night
followed quickly by a cold front Sunday. High pressure returns
early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Only minor changes have been made to sky cover and hourly
temperatures to reflect current trends.

Previous Discussion...
It is another picture perfect early summer afternoon out there
as a 1017 mb surface high centered over Ohio combined with
continued mid/upper troughing over the eastern CONUS maintains
sunny skies and a seasonably cool and dry northerly flow.
Afternoon temperatures range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with
the warmest readings in NW Ohio and the coolest near Lake Erie
and in NW PA. Dew points have mixed down into the mid 40s to low
50s in many places similar to yesterday, so took dew points
below NBM guidance the rest of the afternoon which leads to RH
values in the 25-35% range. However, with the high overhead
allowing for very light surface winds, this will reduce fire
concerns.

The pattern begins to change tonight as the NE CONUS upper trough
lifts out allowing a broad mid/upper ridge and associated heat dome
that has been baking the Plains the past few days to move east. This
is in response to a northern stream shortwave trough digging into
the northern Plains. This will allow the surface high to shift into
New England and the Mid Atlantic tonight through Saturday setting up
return southerly flow, and as heights rise in response to the
mid/upper ridge axis shifting into the lower Great Lakes, a big warm
up is in store. Clear skies and light winds will still allow lows
tonight to fall into the upper 50s/low 60s, but increasing southerly
flow, H5 heights of 588 DM moving into the region, and 850 mb temps
warming to 18-20 C will allow highs Saturday to warm into the upper
80s to near 90 areawide, except low to mid 90s in NW Ohio. Dew
points will slowly creep up into the mid/upper 50s, but with SE low
level flow and resultant downsloping and continued drying of the
ground (possibly pre drought conditions?), the high dew points will
hold off until a warm frontal passage Saturday night. In our recent
warm spells, guidance has been overdoing dew points which is typical
when we get into dry patterns where it doesn`t rain for several
weeks, so blended in lower dew points through Saturday.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will further dig into the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday night with warm/moist
advection increasing ahead of this system across the Ohio Valley and
lower Great Lakes. The associated surface low will lift well to the
north into Hudson Bay with a warm front lifting NE through our
region. This warm front will finally bring in the 65-70 degree dew
points late Saturday night leading to a warmer and muggier night.
Low-level theta e advection will lead to a theta e gradient along
this lifting warm front, and guidance is depicting a few showers and
thunderstorms along it as elevated instability advects into the
area. However, given the above mentioned dry conditions, mid/upper
ridging and associated capping overhead, and a weak low-level jet
averaging 15-20 knots, feel that coverage will be much less than
depicted, so limited PoPs to slight chance in parts of NW and north
central Ohio late Saturday night. The better forcing holds off until
daybreak Sunday when the mid/upper trough axis moving into the
western lakes starts breaking down the ridge, allowing a cold front
to approach. More on that below.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Humidity values will increase quickly on Sunday ahead of a cold
front that will move west to east across the forecast area
during the afternoon and evening. Strong moisture advection
occurs aloft with dewpoints also increasing to the mid 60s to
lower 70s. Temperatures may be impacted by increasing cloud
cover but with highs in the upper 80s and increasing humidity,
heat index values may be above 90 degrees for some locations.

A few scattered showers could be ongoing as early as Sunday morning.
Daytime heating combined with convergence along a pre-frontal trough
should result in good coverage of showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon, especially east of a line from Marion to Cleveland.
Precipitable water values increase to near 2 inches with a deep and
warm moist layer aloft. Storm motion should be nearly parallel to
the boundary, increasing to 20-25 knots. This could result in
locally heavy rain, especially if training of storms occurs. Most
areas have been sufficiently dry and river levels are low making the
greatest concern for flooding being urban or poor drainage areas.
Storm motion should start to increase later in the event as the
upper trough approaches and cold front arrives. Both the Weather
Prediction Center and Storm Prediction Center has added a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall/severe thunderstorms. It is not the most
favorable severe weather environment given warm mid levels and
moderate shear but given mixed layer instability of 2000 J/kg,
expect we will have at least a few severe thunderstorms given
precip loading with wet microbursts. The main window for heavy
rain/marginally severe storms will be 3-9 PM.

A much cooler and drier airmass arrives behind the front to start
the week. Highs on Monday will mostly be in the 70`s with a few 80`s
in NW Ohio. High pressure quickly builds in behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warming trend will resume during the long term forecast as turn
through the long term forecast as upper level ridging returns by
Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal on Tuesday, but will be
near or above 90 degrees again by Thursday. The mid-week stretch is
expected to be dry with moisture streaming north from the Gulf of
Mexico as early as Thursday night. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms return to the forecast by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
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VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Generally light
E to SE winds are expected through the night. Southerly winds
return for inland sites Saturday morning but remain under 8
knots. Lake breeze impacts KCLE around 20Z and KERI around 18Z
with a northerly onshore shift to the winds to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and/or thunderstorms Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure with land/lake breeze circulations will persist
through Saturday. Southwest winds will increase to 10-15 knots on
Sunday ahead of a cold front that will move east across the area
during the afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely, especially across central and eastern Lake Erie, along with
a wind shift to the northwest. Waves will build to 3 to 5 feet
across central and eastern Lake Erie Sunday night into Monday
morning and a brief Small Craft Advisory and High Swim Risk may
occur. Conditions will remain choppy with the northwest flow on
Monday but will be followed by a return to high pressure and good
marine conditions through the mid-week period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas/MM
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/MM
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...KEC