Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 271145 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 645 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface trough will push south through the area this morning. High pressure will build across the region this afternoon through Tuesday night. A weak cold front will drop south into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday before high pressure returns to the area through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... No big changes with the early morning update, aside from some minor temperatures adjustments. Also switched the wording of the freezing drizzle potential to slight chance, given a bit more conditional setup with current upstream cloud top temperatures. Original discussion... A weak surface trough currently just north of the forecast area will slowly sink south through the area today. The main focus for the daytime weather is lake enhanced/effect precipitation that will primarily affect the snow belt. Two main factors for p-type are surface temperatures and the potential loss of ice in the cloud leading to more drizzle/freezing drizzle vs. snow. No big changes made from the previous forecast with temperatures or pops. Snowfall amounts have been lowered slightly for portions of the snowbelt, with the highest amounts in the higher terrain of NW PA, where accums around an inch today and another 1-2 inches tonight are possible. Have opted for a bit more drizzle/freezing drizzle mention in the forecast, with the prospects of losing ice in the cloud noted on most of the hi-res model soundings midday through this evening. With marginal surface temperatures, any freezing drizzle should be low impact, so have opted for patchy wording. Currently, immediate upstream cloud top temperatures are still in the ice layer, although there are pockets farther north of cloud top temperatures near or just warmer than -10C. Lake effect will persist tonight into Tuesday as a thermal trough pushes across the lake, before diminishing slightly Tuesday morning as drier air works into the area. An upstream shortwave will approach the area from the northwest late Tuesday into Tuesday night, which may result in a slight uptick in precip coverage. Highs today will be in the mid 30s, and a degree or two cooler on Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The short term begins Tuesday night with models showing high pressure moving east across Ontario into Quebec. A weak backdoor cold front will approach the area from the northeast, likely moving into the area during the overnight hours. Wednesday the front will push further into Ohio stalling in Central Ohio. Guidance with this front was dry however a nearly saturated layer below 5kft suggests possibly a few snow showers would be possible so do have a low chance pop dropping to slight chance moving in from the northeast. For Wednesday however, moisture decreases so will have a dry forecast. Wednesday night through Thursday night, models differ significantly enough to have low confidence. For now will go with a model blend which favors the drier GFS which builds the Canadian high south into the region through the balance of the period. Highs will reach the lower 30s Wednesday and the mid 30s Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday will pick up with the GFS which takes the surface high east of the area during the day. Saturday, a cold front will approach front the west, extending south from low pressure over Hudson Bay. The GFS also shows weak low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley from the southwest with sufficient moisture for showers. Temps aloft and highs during the bring precip type into question so will have a mix of rain and snow showers with low chance pops. Moisture will remain across the area through Sunday so will continue with chance pops across the area. Also, with flow off the lake Saturday night and Sunday into nwrn PA, will boost pops to likely there. Highs Friday upper 30s, highs Saturday and Sunday closer to 40. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Low ceilings expected at the terminals through the period as a slow moving trough sinks south across the region. IFR ceilings will improve to MVFR during the day, with a return to IFR at most sites later in the period. Lake effect -SN will impact mainly KCLE, KERI mixing with -RA early, and KYNG. West winds will slowly veer northwest by the second half of the period. .OUTLOOK...Widespread non-VFR likely Monday night into Wednesday. && .MARINE... Will drop the small craft advisory for the lake off Cleveland leaving the the nearshore waters east of Willowick to Ripley in effect through 10AM as winds diminish. For today, west winds will turn northwest and continue to diminish to between 10 and 15 knots as a trough drops south across the lake and high pressure begins to build in from the west. Winds will remain from the northwest at 15 knots or less tonight through Tuesday night. Wednesday, light winds will turn more northerly behind a weak backdoor cold front dropping across the lake from the northeast. Flow will veer to northeast Wednesday night and Thursday but remain light at 10 knots or less. Flow will veer to southwest Thursday night into Friday as high pressure moves east of the lake. No headlines expected beyond this morning`s small craft advisory. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ147>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...TK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.