Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 202328 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 728 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front was located from Lake Ontario to the north shore of Lake Erie westward to south of Chicago this afternoon. Low pressure will develop and strengthen over the Midwest before moving northeastward across Ontario tonight. This low will move northeast race into Quebec on Monday with a strong cold front crossing the region. High pressure will arrive in the wake of the cold front for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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720 pm update... We have issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the northwestern portion of the CWA until 1 am EDT. We do expect strong to severe convection to impact portions of northwest Ohio into the western portions of Lake Erie through the late evening hours with the main hazard being damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail. The isolated tornado threat is low but not zero. Previous update... Humid airmass in place across the region to the south of a stationary front that was located from Lake Ontario to the north shore of Lake Erie westward to south of Chicago. Convergence along a lake breeze will also assist in producing thunderstorms through the afternoon with outflow boundaries moving them around into the evening. For later in the evening into the overnight our attention will shift to the convection that is currently moving into western Illinois. This convection will ride near the stationary boundary as an MCS and may begin to impact NW OH shortly after sunset. Strong to severe winds will be possible with the leading edge of the MCS. There is some uncertainty after midnight if the convection will lift into MI and southern Ontario or race across northern Ohio. For now we have gone with most of the convection lifting to the northwest of the CWA and adjust from there. We will also have to monitor for some locally heavy rainfall where we get any training with the MCS. Lows tonight in the 60`s to lower 70`s The boundary from the MCS and a cold front will move across the region from west to east on Monday. There should be a new round of convection that develops along one of the boundaries or maybe even both as we move toward Monday evening. Strong to severe convection will once again be possible until we can push the humid airmass east of the area. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible. Highs on Monday will rang from the upper 70`s west to the mid 80`s east. Models are hinting that the frontal boundary may slow late Monday afternoon into the evening with another ripple of low pressure moving northward along it. So will keep some higher POP`s across the eastern CWA until around 06Z Tuesday. The cold front should finally get another good push eastward through sunrise on Tuesday. It will be cooler and drier in the wake of the front with lows in the upper 40`s to mid 50`s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper-level trough will be making its way east across the Great Lakes region with the lowest 500mb temperatures over the local area Tuesday night. High pressure at the surface will move east across the Ohio Valley Tuesday and Wednesday, and located near the mid- Atlantic region by Wednesday night. The airmass with this system will be unusually cold with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal with highs in 60s Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds on the backside of the high should result in slight temperature recovery on Wednesday with highs back into the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... After a brief stint of ridging aloft Thursday, a shortwave trough moves east across the upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes by Friday. Return flow ahead of this shortwave and large scale trough should result in increased moisture to the region with increasing chances of precipitation Friday through the weekend. Model ensemble average has the best chance for precipitation on Saturday. Near normal temperatures are expected through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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The main challenges and concerns with aviation will be the threat of scattered strong to severe convection this evening into the overnight hours, especially impacting TAF sites like TOL, FDY, and possibly CLE. VFR conditions will be expected tonight outside of heavier showers and convection impacting airports. There will likely be brief MVFR to IFR drops in visibilities with TSRA and have mentioned the best timing in TEMPO groups throughout the rest of the night. Any strong to severe convection to impact airports will potentially have hail and damaging wind gusts up to 50 knots or more. Lingering -SHRA will be around through the night through early Monday morning. Outside of organized convection, winds will be south- southwesterly around 10 knots overnight shifting from the southwest by morning and increasing. Southwest winds will increase to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots by Monday morning for most TAF sites. A stronger cold front will move through midday or early afternoon Monday with a wind shift from the west to west-northwest 15 knots gusts up to 25 knots or more. There could be another round of strong convection potentially with the frontal passage on Monday mainly impacting terminals across northeast Ohio and northwest PA around midday or early afternoon. Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible in showers late Thursday night.
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&& .MARINE... South to southwest winds will begin to increase tonight to around 20 knots by Monday morning. West winds of around 15 to 25 knots will continue through the day, which will veer to out of the northwest with the frontal passage. northwest winds will be 20 to 25 knots through Monday evening and early Monday night before rapidly diminishing to 15 knots or less by early Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory will be issued for the entire Lake Erie nearshore Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. High pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday, moving off to the New England coast by Thursday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 AM EDT Monday through late Monday night for OHZ003-007-009>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 AM EDT Monday through late Monday night for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>149.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...Griffin/MM SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...Saunders

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