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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
474
FXUS61 KCLE 101746
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1246 PM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the southern Great Lakes today. The
high will weaken slightly on Tuesday as low pressure moves across
the Great Lakes then strengthen again behind the system Tuesday
night. High pressure will finally shift east of the area late
Wednesday as a trough moves out of the Plains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low clouds will hold through the afternoon. Still an outside
chance of a flurry or drizzle across extreme NE OH into NW PA.

Otherwise have only made minor changes to the hourly
temperatures to reflect current trends.

Previous Discussion...
Stratus has filled in across the eastern Great Lakes beneath a
ridge extending from high pressure over the Plains. Trended
towards a more pessimistic cloud forecast for today. Both the
NAM and RAP 950mb relative humidity fields are handling the
stratus well and keep the clouds in place through at least
today. It is unclear to what extent the clouds will clear out
tonight or if they will linger through Tuesday. Better mixing
will occur tonight as winds near the top of the inversion
increase to around 30 knots, possibly leading to some breaks
across NW Ohio. These breaks may be brief as low level
isentropic ascent develops ahead of the low pressure system
sliding east across the Great Lakes with stratus expanding again
towards morning. Given the expected cloud cover today coupled
with a cool start this morning, lowered highs for today and
these values may still be too warm. Also raised mins for tonight
in areas where skies are not expected to clear.

Tuesday expected to be dry until a low chance of snow showers
returns to the lakeshore areas late in the day. An upper level
trough will move southeast across the Great Lakes Region but the
airmass will remain quite dry. Not a good set-up for lake effect,
but low level westerly flow across Lake Erie along with convergence
along the NE lakeshore may be just enough for scattered snow showers
to develop late in the day, mainly in NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Still low chance of snow in the snowbelt Tuesday evening, but
after that the upper level short wave swing East of the forecast
area. High pressure slides quickly across the Upper Ohio Valley
Wednesday a dry day. Another upper level short wave moves
across the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday night. Short wave will
give a chance of some light snow Wednesday night. But limited
moisture source and speed of the short wave will limit amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models track low pressure slowly across the Ohio Valley
thursday night into Friday night. GFS is faster and further
north with the low than the ECMWF. The best chance for precip
continues to be Friday, when all precip should fall as rain.
Lows will track east of the forecast area Saturday morning, as
high pressure builds south across the area. GFS now coming into
agreement with ECMWF for a dry Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
IFR conditions across NW Ohio should gradually lift to MVFR
through the afternoon. Elsewhere MVFR conditions will continue.
There could be a few snow showers near KERI this evening but is
not expected to accumulate. Another weakening trough will cross
the region on Tuesday with a few snow showers possible.

Winds will be light through the day. Overnight into Tuesday
morning winds will become west to southwest and may increase to
around 8 knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday evening into Wednesday with clouds
and flurries.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake will be relatively quiet quiet today with north winds of 5 to
10 knots.  Winds will back to the SW tonight and increase to 10 to
20 knots Tuesday as a weak low swings across The Eastern Lakes. At
this point waves of 2 to 4 feet seems reasonable, but will need to
continue to monitor. Winds diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday as
high pressure tracks east across the Upper Ohio Valley.  South flow
sets up on the Lake Wednesday night as high shifts east of the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Mullen
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...DJB