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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241732
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
132 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low over the Tennessee valley will slowly track east to
the mid Atlantic region by Wednesday. A cold front will cross
the local area early on Wednesday. High pressure will build
across the region Wednesday night through Thursday night before
a cold front moves east across the region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low currently situated over TN and KY continues to bring
consistent light rain to much of the region. Rainfall rates are
generally between a few hundredths of an inch an hour to around
one-quarter of an inch an hour...mainly south of US 30. The
short term models have been persistent with the bulk of the
precipitation falling across the southern half of the region and
steady rain becoming more showery this evening into the
overnight hours. The upper low is forecast to shift slowly east
with rain ending across the area Wednesday morning. The one
exception may be the eastern half of the region...where showers
may linger a few hours into Wednesday afternoon.

Otherwise...below normal temperatures will persist across the
region with readings generally between 5 and 15 degrees below
normal for the end of April.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Wednesday night with models showing minor
differences with the moisture and position of the upper low.
The GFS shows upper low pressure in srn Ontario while the NAM
has it more over KBUF. The ECMWF has it just north of KTOL. Will
accept more the grouping of the NAM/GFS although the GFS is dry
across nwrn PA while the NAM would suggest a pop would be
necessary. For continuity and compromise, will keep a low chance
pop northeast through the night. For Thursday, both the NAM and
GFS show high pressure building in from the west so will keep
forecast dry. Next chance for rain will come Friday afternoon as
a cold front moves through the area accompanied by an upper
trough moving through the Great Lakes. At this time moisture is
not convincing but given upper support we could see a line of
showers work through. Friday night into saturday another low and
reinforcing cold front will drop through the area out of the
northwest likely bringing another round of showers and falling
temps. Temps below normal Thursday and Saturday. Friday near
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday night through Monday will be dominated by high pressure.
The high will be over the area Sunday and then move to the Carolina
coast by Tuesday setting up strong warm advection into the Ohio
Valley for Monday.  Expect highs Sunday 50 to 60 with highs near 70
Monday. Tuesday highs will be even warmer with 70 to 80 degrees not
out of the question away from the immediate lakeshore.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Rain impacting the terminals through at least the evening
hours...tapering off from west to east generally between 01z and
08z Wednesday. Gusty winds at KERI through 21z
otherwise...mainly southeast winds becoming light after 00z.
MVFR cigs becoming IFR this evening through Wednesday morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wednesday into at least Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Brief small craft conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon as
northwest flow increases to 15 to 20 knots behind a cold front.
Models however are indicating waves top out around 3 feet or so, so
for now will go with a 2 to 4 foot forecast Wednesday and defer to
afternoon models. Otherwise no headlines expected through the period
with winds generally below 15 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Riley
NEAR TERM...Riley
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Riley
MARINE...TK