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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 080230
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
930 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the central Great Lakes will drift
southeastward to the southeastern United States by Monday
afternoon, allowing a warm front to lift north across the
region. Low pressure over Ontario and over the Plains will keep
a warm southwesterly wind over Ohio and western Pennsylvania
into Wednesday night. A cold front will sag into the region by
Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
930 update... There were no changes needed to the ongoing
forecast this evening with very quiet weather thanks to high
pressure. Milder temperatures and gusty southwest winds will be
the main weather highlights on Monday.

Previous discussion...
High pressure will take control overnight with any remaining
flurries across NW PA ending shortly after sunset. Lows tonight
will range from the teens across NW PA to the mid 20`s across NW
OH. A warm front will lift across the region tonight into early
Monday with increasing southwesterly winds. These gusty
southwest winds will usher much warmer air into the region. The
overall atmosphere will be fairly dry but believe we will see
some middle and high level cloud cover. Highs on Monday look to
be in the upper 40`s across inland NW PA, where we need to melt
a little bit of snow, to the mid 60`s across the western CWA.

A weakening cold front will sag southward across Lake Erie
Monday night. Definitely should see an increase in cloud cover.
There are low chances of sprinkles along it as it interacts
with the higher terrain of NW PA Monday evening into the
overnight. It is very dry but there may be just enough moisture
lifted from the lake to produce some light rain or drizzle for
a few hours. Elsewhere it looks to be a dry frontal passage.
Lows Monday night will range from the mid 30`s to around 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An established high pressure at the surface across the East
Coast, and associated ridge aloft, will allow for dry conditions
to persist into Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on
Tuesday are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s with
overnight lows dipping into the 40s. The coolest part of the
area will likely be in NW PA as southwesterly winds will take
longer to usher the warm air into that portion of the CWA.
Although no precipitation is expected until Wednesday evening
into the overnight hours, there will be an increase in cloud
cover across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday due to increased
moisture and warm air advection across the area ahead of an
approaching low pressure system.

Wednesday afternoon will mark the transition to a more active
weather pattern over the area. By this time, much of the Ohio River
Valley will lie under an increased gradient between an approaching
low pressure and departing high pressure. As a result, winds are
expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots, with the strongest winds
expected in the western portion of the CWA. Winds will persist into
Thursday, with the strongest Wednesday overnight. In conjunction
with increasing winds, a weak boundary will begin to produce
showers. With above average temperatures, all precipitation will
remain as rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
During the long term period, the area will be impacted by 2 separate
low pressure systems. The first system will track just north of the
Great Lakes region toward Ontario. This system will move a cold
front east across the area Thursday morning into the afternoon.
Strong upper level divergence will aid the frontal boundary is
creating widespread rain showers that will begin to diminish from
west to east by Friday morning. QPF values continue to diverge in
agreement from model to model. Some models suggest more than an inch
of total QPF by Friday evening. The QPF forecast will need to
closely be monitored in the coming days as many factors will play
critical roles in how much precipitation the area actually sees. If
the boundary is slower to move through the area, or possibly stalls,
there would be an increase in total QPF across the area, and vice
versa. This will be a key factor in the potential for flooding
across the area, although right now the risk appears to be low.

Models have been inconsistent with how to handle the transition
period between this departing low and the arrival of impacts from a
low pressure originating in the southern Plains. As a result, have
opted to decrease the chance of PoPs Friday afternoon into the
evening, although it will be a short lived hiatus. On Friday, the
aforementioned low pressure originating in the southern Plains is
expected to approach the area from the southwest, moving a warm
front north across the area by Friday overnight. This boundary may
remain just south of the area, so with increased uncertainty, have
opted to keep low chance of PoPs. All precipitation during the day
should remain as rain, with some snow showers possibly mixing in
during the overnight period. By the weekend, high pressure should
begin to push southeast across the area.

Temperatures throughout this period will begin to shift back to near
normal high and low temperatures for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with this
TAF update. Clear skies and light winds tonight will transition
to gusty southwest winds late Monday morning through the
afternoon. Light southerly winds around 5 knots is expected
tonight. South-Southwest winds will increase 12 to 15 knots by
midday Monday through the afternoon. Gusts over the eastern
portions of the area will be up to 20 knots possible Monday
afternoon. Gusts will likely be around 25 knots west of a line
from KCLE to KMFD and much of northwest Ohio. The gusts will
relax closer to sunset Monday evening. High level cloudiness
will increase on Monday but continue to remain fair skies.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday night through
Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the area will allow for light and variable winds
across Lake Erie into Monday morning. On Monday, the western Great
Lakes will be positioned on under an upper level ridge with a
shortwave trough moving just to the northeast of Lake Erie. An
associated LLJ with this shortwave will result in a brief increase
of winds from the southwest to 10 to 15 knots, weakening to 5 to 10
knots overnight on Monday as the shortwave departs the area. On
Tuesday, a high pressure slowly departing to the southeast will
allow for winds across Lake Erie to remain light and variable into
the early overnight hours.

The primary concern for this forecast period is on Wednesday into
Thursday, as an increased gradient across Lake Erie will result in
winds ramping up from 10 to 15 knots Wednesday morning to 20 to 25
knots Wednesday night ahead of a cold front. Current forecast has
the highest waves during this time to be 2 to 4 feet and are
expected to remain in the open waters. Once the cold front moves
across the area on Thursday, winds will shift and weaken, becoming
northwesterly at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...Griffin/MM
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Campbell