888
FXUS61 KALY 120222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1022 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will bring some rain showers to the region
tonight into Sunday morning before gradually tapering off later
in the day. Cool conditions continue through the rest of the
weekend with more seasonable weather returning for next week.
Rain chances continue through the early to the middle part of
next week with a trend toward drier weather by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.Update...As of 10:25 PM EDT...Mostly just cosmetic changes
with this update to better match with current obs and
satellite/radar trends. Still seeing a couple showers in the
ADKs and upper Hudson Valley, with dry conditions across the
rest of the region. Vertically stacked upper low and surface low
will track eastwards from the Great Lakes region through the
remainder of the night, which will increase the coverage of
showers especially after 4-6z. Outside of showers, cloudy skies
are expected tonight. Temperatures have now dipped mainly into
upper 40s to mid 50s and should continue to slowly drop through
the next several hours with lows mainly in the 40s. Please see
previous discussion below for more details...

.Previous...GOES 16 WV imagery ans surface analysis show a
vertically stacked low pressure system and associated upper low
currently located over the Great Lakes region. These features
will track eastwards tonight, with the upper low expected to be
located over northeast PA and the southern Tier by 12z Sunday.
The surface low weakens as it tracks into western NY, but these
features will both increase the coverage of showers as they
approach later tonight. More widespread showers located over
central and western NY should arrive around or shortly after
midnight. For those hoping to catch another glimpse of the
aurora tonight, skies will be mainly broken to overcast. Despite
the cloudy skies, temperatures tonight drop into the 30s
(terrain) and 40s (elsewhere) with a cool air mass in place and
wet-bulb processes expected to drop temperatures to near the
respective dew points with the showers. Showers will continue
through tonight as the core of the upper low crosses the region
into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will begin to depart the region to the east
with ongoing showers in the morning gradually tapering off
during the afternoon and early evening hours. Cloudy conditions
along with the showers will hold temperatures mainly into the
50s to around 60. Weak ridging and surface high pressure build
into the region for Sunday night with dry weather returning.
Some breaks in the clouds are possible and this could result in
some areas of fog. Lows are expected to fall back into the upper
30s to mid-40s.

Generally flat, zonal flow will be in place on Monday with an
upper-level trough approaching from the west Monday night. The
day will start out dry but chances for showers will increase
throughout the day and night as a warm front approaches from the
south and west. The best shower chances during the day Monday
will be for areas north and west of Albany and for areas along
and north of I-90 Monday night as the warm front lifts to the
north. Some weak instability may be present and allow for a few
rumbles of thunder. Highs will top out mainly in the 60s with
some pockets of upper 50s across the higher elevations.
Southerly winds will pick up during the afternoon with a few
gusts over 20 mph. The clouds and warm air advection will cause
temperatures Monday night to only fall into the upper 40s to
mid-50s..

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal boundary will be moving from the west towards the area
for Tuesday into Tuesday night. With plenty of moisture
streaming northward ahead of the boundary, showers and
thunderstorms look fairly widespread, especially Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Temps should be fairly mild ahead of the
front with 60s and 70s.

Although the front should pass through the area on Tuesday
night, it looks to stall just east of the area. A wave of low
pressure will be developing offshore the mid Atlantic States and
will be lifting northeast for the midweek. The models still
show some differences if this feature will close off or not, but
a period of additional rainfall looks possible for Wednesday if
this system remains close to the area. With the clouds and
possible precip, will keep temps in the 60s for Wednesday.

Behind these departing systems, some dry weather looks to move
back into the region, although it will depend on how quickly
thing do wind up departing away from the area. For now, will
keep POPs generally in the slight chc range for Thursday and
Friday with temps near seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...Conditions are currently VFR at all TAF
sites and should remain VFR through the next 3-6 hours, but then
expecting a trend towards MVFR cigs and vsbys with the arrival
of more widespread showers from the west after midnight.
Greatest coverage of showers looks to be from late tonight
through early tomorrow morning, and prevailing SHRA was used
here with a combination of VCSH and tempo/prob30 groups
elsewhere to highlight the more isolated to scattered nature of
showers outside this window. While coverage of showers starts
to diminish between 12-15z tomorrow morning, MVFR cigs look to
hang on through at least early afternoon, with MVFR vsbys in any
lingering showers. Shower chances diminish tomorrow late
afternoon and evening, with some improvement back to low-end VFR
cigs also possible towards the end of the TAF period.

Winds will generally be at 5-10 kt from the southeast through
the end of the TAF period at ALB/GFL, and through mid-after noon
at POU/PSF before turning to the southwest at around 5 kt at
these terminals.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Main/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Main