779
FXUS61 KALY 151036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
636 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Early morning showers expected to persist throughout the
day as a weak boundary remains off to our north and west and low
pressure approaches from the south. Showers gradually become more
scattered in nature by Thursday before dry weather returns Friday.
Additional chances for showers comes this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...Showers are behaving more like a stratiform
precipitation shield this morning with more widespread coverage
across majority of the area. According to latest guidance, this
is likely to continue into this afternoon with the nearing of
the coastal low, gradually reducing in spatial coverage as it
lifts north. Made minor adjustments to PoPs and temperatures
with this update to account for latest trends, but the forecast
as a whole remains steady state. See previous discussion below
for additional details...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Light showers have spread into the region from southwest to
northeast this morning as a developing surface low takes shape
along the North Carolina/Virgina border. A weak cold front
remains displaced just to our north and west with its parent low
settling just into the northeast corner of Maine. IR imagery
shows a fairly expansive, upper-level disturbance painted across
portions of the Midwest, Mississippi Valley, and sliding into
the Tennessee Valley. Southerly flow about the leading edge of
this feature has allowed for a continuous influx of moisture
into the region, providing requisite fuel for development and
sustainment of showers out ahead of the approaching low.

Throughout the day today, the aforementioned low will gradually
shift eastward as a broad area of low pressure currently
situated in the southern Ohio Valley/northern Tennessee Valley
is also forced east by the northeast fill of the upper-level
trough. Light showers will continue to push through the region
from south to north thanks to warm air advection ahead of the
north- northeast tracking low. With limited instability across
the forecast area, limited convection is expected. However, a
few rumbles of thunder are possible mainly north of Albany. With
ample cloud cover today, highs will be in the 60s throughout the
region with pockets of upper 50s at higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the coastal low settles off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, flow
gradually veers to the northeast, cutting off low-level moisture
transport and allowing showers to become more scattered in
nature. In fact, by early Thursday morning, showers will likely
have subsided for areas within and north of the Capital
District as the better forcing shifts east. The only areas that
could see additional showers throughout the morning Thursday
are portions of the Mid-Hudson Valley, Northwest Connecticut and
perhaps even southern Berkshire County where some wrap around
precipitation is possible. Low temperatures will be primarily
in the low to mid 50s with pockets of 40s at higher elevations.

Throughout the day Thursday, some additional scattered showers
are possible throughout eastern New York and western New England
as the coastal low retrogrades a bit back towards the New Jersey
coastline. The higher likelihood of more widespread showers
remains in the Mid-Hudson Valley and western New England, but
some isolated to scattered showers are possible within and north
of the Capital District. Highs Thursday will rise into the upper
60s to low 70s with pockets of low to mid 60s above 1000 ft.

As the coastal low drifts south Thursday night, precipitation
will gradually taper off completely, giving way to building
heights with the advance of a modest trough and weak surface
high. With these fair-weather features in place, Friday will
feature dry conditions with highs in the 70s. However, with
another disturbance swiftly approaching the region for the
weekend and mid-level moisture remaining elevated, expect skies
to be partly to mostly cloudy.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast period begins with a cold front approaching
the region Fri night and weakening with increasing clouds and the
best chance for isolated to scattered showers along and west of the
Hudson River Valley and Lake George.  Lows will generally be in the
50s with some upper 40s over the higher terrain.

The upcoming weekend will depend on the track of the mid and upper
level low over the Midwest and the TN Valley.  The latest medium
range guidance and some of the ensembles have trended drier to open
the weekend. A trough of low pressure will have an inverted sfc
trough, so we kept a low chance for scattered showers Sat pm into
the early evening.   It will be mostly cloudy with near normal temps
in the 60s to around 70F for highs and lows in the mid 40s to lower
50s.  The mid and upper level trough moves towards the East Coast
with a coastal wave near the mid Atlantic States on Sunday.  Some
moisture may advect northward for a chance of showers south of the
Capital Region with a slight chance north and east.  If downstream
ridging builds in, then this day may be drier north of the I-90
corridor. Temps will be similar to Saturday.

Sunday night into Tuesday...H500 ridging may fold in over NY and New
England for a brief dry trend of weather late Sunday night through
Monday.  A sfc anticyclone will build in from the Ohio Valley.  Max
temps rise slightly above normal.  A more progressive short-wave and
a cold front may bring scattered showers and some thunderstorms late
Monday Night into Tuesday.  Timing issues continue in the medium
range and ensembles into the middle of next week.   Temps may rise
above normal around 5 degrees with upper 70s in the lower elevation
to close the extended period.  The latest CPC Day 8-14 forecast May
22-28 is for near normal temps and slightly above normal rainfall
for eastern NY and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A stationary front west of the region and a low pressure system
moving up the mid Atlantic Coast will bring periods of rain this
morning with a brief lull in the afternoon before some scattered
showers popping up in the late afternoon or some patchy drizzle
moving back into the TAF sites tonight.  Some lower stratus with the
patchy drizzle will likely develop overnight.

MVFR/low VFR conditions continue this morning in the rain from KALB-
KPSF southward to KPOU.  Some lapses to IFR vsbys and cigs have
occurred at KALB/KPOU and a lower stratus deck with likely develop
prior to noon.  KGFL has low MVFR cigs and will see rain move in
prior to 12Z.  A period of IFR cigs is possible 12Z-18Z/WED for
KALB/KPSF/KALB/KPOU with intermittent increases to MVFR levels in
the 1.0-2.5 kft AGL range.

Some improvement to high MVFR/low VFR conditions is possible in the
early to mid pm with cigs 2-3.5 kft AGL, but some scattered showers
may develop and TEMPO/PROB30 groups were used to bring solid MVFR
conditions back. KPOU may remain in the deeper moisture as well as
KPSF for MVFR cigs continuing past 00Z/THU. Cigs may even lower to
IFR levels.  KALB/KGFL may be high MVFR or low VFR in the 3-3.5 kft
AGL range.

The winds will be south or southeast at 4-8 KT this morning into the
early afternoon. The winds will become east/northeast to north at 7
KT or less in the late afternoon through tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula