410
FXUS61 KALY 090546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
146 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A brief break in precipitation is expected today as weak surface
high pressure builds across the region. A frontal boundary to our
south will lift back north across the area Thursday, with a renewed
round of showers and storms expected. This active pattern will
persist for most into the weekend and early next week with
temperatures remaining warm with humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for the mid Hudson
  Valley and NW CT through this evening. Main threat will be
  damaging winds, although some storms could contain hail as
  well.

- All showers and thunderstorms will have the capability of
  producing locally heavy downpours which could lead to
  localized ponding of water in poor drainage areas. Flood Watch
  remains in effect through 2 AM Wednesday for Dutchess, E.
  Ulster and Litchfield Counties.

Discussion:

As of 242 PM EDT...A slow moving frontal boundary continues to
settle southward across the forecast area. The boundary is now
through the Capital Region and Berkshires, but the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT still remain ahead of the front. SPC
mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/jg range
ahead of the front. Low level lapse rates fairly steep due to
the strong solar heating today, although mid-level lapse rates
are more meager in the 6 deg C/km. While 0-6 km bulk shear is
fairly weak (generally around 30 kts or less), there has been
enough to organize a few rogue thunderstorms over far southern
areas early this afternoon. One storm has been tall enough to
produce wind damage and small hail over NW CT.

Through the early evening hours, some additional storms are
possible over far southern areas as the front continues to push
southward. There is probably a better threat for storms over the
northern mid Atlantic States where there is somewhat higher
instability. SPC continues a marginal risk and CAMs continue to
suggest some additional storms are possible through the late
evening hours. This may be especially true in the 7 PM to 1 AM
time period, as a weak wave of low pressure slides along the
boundary and passes close to the area during this time period.

In addition, thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy
downpours. PWATs are approaching two inches and surface
dewpoints are in the lower 70s. Storms have been moving fairly
slowly as well, so rainfall rates could approach 2 inches per
hour within the heaviest downpours. Flood Watch is in effect for
Dutchess and Litchfield Counties through 2 AM due to the
possibility of these heavy downpours. Urban, low lying and poor
drainage areas will be most as risk.

Temps have been fairly warm again today, especially across
southern areas. With dewpoints still in the 70s, heat index
values have been 90 to 100 across the mid Hudson Valley and NW
CT and a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT. Heat related illnesses are possible for those
who don`t take precautions in these areas through the evening
hours.

Elsewhere, it will remain partly to mostly cloudy into the
overnight with lows falling into the 60s. It will remain muggy
with elevated dewpoints, even for areas behind the front.

The front will be situated south of the area for Wednesday into
Wednesday night. While a few showers are possible for southern
or eastern areas, coverage looks fairly isolated. It will remain
warm and muggy once again with highs in the 80s, although it
appears that heat index values should stay below advisory
criteria.

There will be a better chance for additional showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday as the front lifts back northward as a
warm front. CAMs suggest a higher coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.
WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall due to the high
moisture in place and decent coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Although our area is not outlooked for severe at
this time, a few strong storms can`t be ruled out, as there
should be some shear in the 0-6 km layer thanks to lifting warm
front and enough breaks of sun will allow for some surface-based
instability to be in place. High temps look to reach into the
80s once again on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Typical summer weather is expected through much of the long term
period. Have stayed closed to NBM POPs through the extended with
just isolated to low chance for Fri-Sat and higher POPs in the
chance range for Sunday to Monday. This makes sense, as the next
shortwave looks to approach for the end of the weekend or early
next week. Best coverage looks to be in the afternoon to early
evening hours each day. Although it`s too early to pinpoint
exactly where and when, some threat for heavy downpours and/or
strong storms are likely to occur at some point during the
extended period.

Daytime temps will likely be in the mid to upper 80s each day
in valley areas with lows in the 60s. It should stay fairly
humid through the period with dewpoints in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z/Thu...A frontal boundary has become stationary over
southern NY into southern New England near the I-84 corridor this
morning.  Weak disturbances continues to move along the boundary, as
high pressure continues to try to build in from eastern Great Lakes
Region.  Mid and high clouds remain over the TAFs sites with some
lower stratus developing at KGFL.  We are expecting some MVFR/low
VFR stratus to form at all the TAF sites between 08Z-12Z/WED.  The
stratus will remain in place until 15Z-18Z/WED.  Some mid and high
clouds will linger until another weak disturbance will bring some
thickening of the clouds, as well as some scattered showers or
isolated thunderstorms late in the afternoon into the evening
period.  We included PROB30 groups at KPSF/KPOU for
showers/thunderstorms late in the TAF cycle with MVFR conditions.

The winds will be light from the north/northwest at 5 KT or less
this morning and then will vary from the east/southeast to the
north/northwest at 7 KT or less in the late morning through the
afternoon before becoming light and variable a 4 KT or less tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday to Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula