686
FXUS61 KALY 022018
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
418 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Beautiful, early May weather is expected for the
remainder of the work week. Temperatures cool off a bit as chances
for showers increase ahead of a frontal system. Dry conditions
return for the beginning of the work week before another frontal
system looks to increase shower and possibly thunderstorm chances
beginning Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Surface low pressure continues to drift south and east through
the Northeast this afternoon, but conditions are absolutely
beautiful given high pressure building over the Great Lakes,
mid- to upper-level ridging approaching from the west, and mid-
level dry air making for mainly clear skies. The greatest
concentration of clouds remains at the upslope locations of the
Southwest Adirondacks and southern Greens where northerly to
northwesterly flow about the northern periphery of the low has
initiated orographic lift sufficient to maintain a broken
layer. Elsewhere, some fair weather cumulus have popped up and
dissipated at varying times throughout the afternoon.

Courtesy of deep mixing and ample surface exposure to direct
sunlight, temperatures across eastern New York and western New
England range primarily from the upper 60s to low/mid 70s.
However, pockets of upper 70s and low 80s exist within the Mid-
Hudson Valley and Litchfield Counties and upper 50s to low 60s
in the Southwest Adirondacks.

Throughout the night tonight, the upper ridge axis will continue
drift eastward, further encroaching upon the region and ensuring
the continuation of dry conditions. With the surface low
remaining within reach as it slides away from the New England
Coast, it is possible that some high cirrus clouds will drift
into the region from the northeast. Coverage should not be
extensive as dry air dominates the mid-level environment.
Sufficient breaks in cloud coverage should allow temperatures to
radiate down to the mid/upper 40s with some pockets of near 50
in the Mid-Hudson Valley.

When it came to fog potential tonight, there is not a clear
signal for widespread development. While low-level relative
humidity will increase, there should be a sufficient breeze to
negate fog formation. Therefore, left this out of the forecast
for tonight. However, it is possible that, should winds go light
enough or even calm, some valley areas could see some very
patchy fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The dry trend continues for Friday as the ridge axis builds
across the region. As the aforementioned surface low continues
to drift southward, winds will gradually continue to veer to the
southeast. This shift will likely make tomorrow`s high
temperatures a bit cooler than today, especially in western New
England, as marine influence advects cooler air across the
region. As such, the current forecast shows high temperatures
int the upper 60s to low 70s with low to mid 60s and possibly
upper 50s (high peaks) at higher elevations.

With the turning of the winds comes an expectation that some
marine-layer clouds could spread across the region from
southeast to northwest. However, clouds will also be on the
increase from west to east ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Therefore, the two shields will congeal to form partly
cloudy skies across the region by the early afternoon. Breaks of
sun are still likely, however, with subsidence from the ridge
counteracting developing clouds.

Skies continue to cloud over throughout the evening tomorrow and
into the overnight period as the ridge continues to push further
west. Plenty of cloud cover will make for mild low temperatures
tomorrow night with values progged to be in the upper 40s to low
50s and pockets of mid 40s especially in western New England.

While Saturday will begin dry, shower chances increase beginning
Saturday afternoon as a frontal system settles into the eastern
Great Lakes and an occluded/borderline stationary front becomes
positioned just to the south and west of the region. While some
timing discrepancies exist in the guidance pertaining to the
onset of showers Saturday, general consensus points to a gradual
west to east progression of the precipitation shield beginning
late Saturday afternoon. The track of the boundary and its
parent low will be slowed with the slow exit of the antecedent
ridge, allowing showers to become prolonged into Sunday. At this
time, no thunderstorms are expected as a result of this system
as there is an overall lack of instability across the region.
Additionally, QPF with this precipitation looks to be relatively
light. Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers continue across the region Sunday as the ridge is slow
to exit the New England Coast and low pressure south of the
Hudson Bay helps to reinforce shower activity as its warm sector
dips into our CWA. Expectation remains for little to no
thunderstorm development throughout the day Sunday as little
instability will be present across the region. Showers will
persist throughout much of the day, however, as the low in
Southeast Canada lingers overhead and its eastward-tracking cool
frontal boundary helps to sustain lift. High temperatures Sunday
will be cooler with primarily 50s anticipated across the region.

With the exit of the overhead low and its frontal boundary
Sunday night, high pressure will begin to build in from the
west such that dry conditions will be returned. Low temperatures
Sunday night look to be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Dry weather ensues for the first half of the work week as modest
ridging aloft builds in with the high at the surface. High
temperatures will follow another warming trend Monday and
Tuesday with upper 60s to low/mid 70s Monday and upper 60s to
upper 70s Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances then increase
once again Tuesday night into Wednesday with a warm front
advancing towards the region from the southwest. It is too early
to determine strength of thunderstorms, but will monitor
conditions over the coming days. Highs Wednesday will be similar
to Tuesday with 60s and 70s likely. At this time, Thursday
appears to be dry upon the exit of the warm front with
temperatures also in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the daytime with
gusty westerly winds shifting to the north-northwest by 20 - 22
UTC sustained between 10 and 18kts with gusts up to 30kts.
Mainly clear skies continue tonight with gusty winds weakening
by sunset (23 - 01 UTC). A few occasional gusts up to 15kts
cannot be ruled out through 03 UTC but winds will be trending
weaker. After 03 UTC, winds at all terminals will be light
(under 5kts) and either variable or out of the southeast.

Given radiational cooling and a weak southeast flow ensuing,
some low stratus may develop by 08 - 12 UTC resulting in MVFR
ceilings. Best chance for any MVFR ceilings looks to be PSF but
included tempo groups at all terminals. Any MVFR ceilings should
diminish by or shortly after 12 UTC thanks to our strong May sun
angle. South-southeasterly winds will remain light near 5kts.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Speciale