Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 171447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1047 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Issued at 1044 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Not much going on out there this morning, with just some passing
high and mid level clouds across northern lower. Expect some
shallow cumulus to develop as low levels warm into this afternoon.
Otherwise, mostly to partly sunny weather will continue as high
pressure remains settled overhead. Expect good diurnal temperature
response to continue, with afternoon highs in the lower and
middle 70s. Expected lake breeze development will keep the Great
Lakes shoreline communities a little cooler.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Impactful weather: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, weak sfc high pressure was over Lake Superior
and was dropping slowly southward. A weak shortwave was crossing
into Lake Huron, helping to sustain a touch of light rain/sprinkles
in the far SE CWA near Saginaw Bay, within deeper moisture, just
north of and H8-H7 frontal zone. Otherwise, shallow mid level
ridging was moving in from the west, with a more defined shortwave
rounding the base of a mid level closed circulation in far SE
Manitoba. This wave was resulting in areas of light showers in the
nrn Plains to the upper Mississippi valley. No thunder was
associated with this convection, except for SD, where deeper
moisture and better lapse rates resided.

Not much expected for today and tonight again. The aforementioned
light rain/sprinkles near Saginaw Bay are expected to wane/depart
east by daybreak, while the sfc high pressure drops into nrn
Michigan today, then off to Lake Huron tonight. Winds will be light
with afternoon lake breezes, and there is no expected precipitation
today. There will be some weak vorticity moving overhead, out ahead
of the closed circulation to our west, which may bring on some
higher level clouds. other than that, and fcst soundings suggesting
maybe some few-sct cumulus, quite a bit of sunshine expected for the
day, with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 70s in
most areas.

Not really much going on tonight either. The closed circulation
opens up and dampens out as it crosses Lake Superior. This induces
weak low pressure and sfc troughing from central upper Michigan
through Wisconsin. Fcst soundings outside of the RUC do not indicate
much moisture advection into our neck of the woods, but feel that
the RUC is correct based of the synoptic pattern of a wave and an
area of low pressure just to our west. Doubt there will be any light
showers around (best chance would be in eastern upper), but did have
to increase cloud cover from most all data set suggestions.
Expecting mostly cloudy skies across the nrn CWA by late tonight.
Low temperatures will primarily be in the mid to upper 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Synopsis: Upper level flow over the Great Lakes is currently fairly
zonal with a pair of upper level lows situated to our north. The
first will continue rotating over Quebec as it`s cut off from large
scale flow. It won`t move very much anytime soon, and in fact looks
to retrograde back toward southwest Quebec in mid to late next week.
The second low, currently in southern Manitoba, looks to get sheared
out before moving over the northern Great Lakes through Monday into
Tuesday. Multiple subtle wave move over the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday, each providing their own chance of light showers, or
at least increased cloudiness.

High Impact Weather Potential: Small chance of thunder Tuesday

Details/Challenges: Slight shower chances

The aformentioned second shortwave starts to get absorbed into the
main lobe of energy over Quebec late Monday. Models are in decent
agreement that the resulting latent PV anomaly will be rather weak
as it slides over our northern sections Tuesday morning. This may
only produce increased cloud coverage over N. Lower. There could be
enough moisture & lift to spit out a couple light showers in E.
Upper but confidence in this is low. As the day progresses a few
light showers may pop up over the higher terrain as another very
weak/subtle wave crosses just to our north. Weak synoptic flow will
also lend to lake breeze development in the mid to late afternoon.
Around 100 Joules of CAPE may make it possible for some rumbles of
thunder in the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the low to
mid 70s in E. Upper and mid to upper 70s in N. Lower, with areas
near the lake shores a little cooler. Wednesday will be a similar
day to Tuesday (at least initially) as no real air mass changes
materialize with weak high pressure over the Great Lakes. Clouds and
moisture will be on the increase through the day ahead of a Central
Plains low pressure system. This low will ramp up Wednesday night on
its approach to southern Michigan, as it gains support from a
progressive shortwave crossing the Mississippi Valley. Models are in
decent agreement that the surface low will be over the MI/IN border
by 06z Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Models have come into a little better agreement over the surface low
strength & placement. Thursday continues the precip chances as the
low treks through the lower lakes. Greatest threat for showers and
thicker clouds will be closer to Saginaw Bay. By Friday into early
Saturday we dry out with high pressure moving in, but another low
quick on the heels of the high pressure will bring more showers to
the area late Saturday and possibly into Sunday. Temperatures remain
near to slightly below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

High pressure will drop into northern Michigan today then drift into
Lake Huron tonight. Winds will be light with lake breezes this
afternoon, and no precipitation. Outside of some potential fog again
tonight, VFR conditions through the TAF period.


Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

High pressure will drop into northern Michigan today then drift into
the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and Tuesday night, making way for a
weak area of low pressure and sfc trough. This will result in a
chance for some isolated to scattered showers Tuesday into early
Tuesday evening. Winds will light with solid afternoon lake breezes
today and Tuesday. No wind/wave issues foreseen through mid week.




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