Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 141715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1215 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Issued at 1026 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Large area of strong high pressure is centered from the Western
Great Lakes thru the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern
Plains late this morning. Building subsidence and arrival of drier
air is leading to a steady diminishing trend in all remaining lake
effect snow showers across the Western Great Lakes...and expect
this diminishing trend will continue this afternoon. All precip
should come to an end by early this evening once the surface
ridge axis shifts east of Michigan and WAA begins ahead of our
next system. Have dropped remaining Winter Wx Advisory for
Chippewa county...with only an inch or less of additional snow
accumulation expect for the rest of the day.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...A well deserved break in the active weather coming...

High impact weather potential: Just some lingering light snow
accumulations this morning, especially across eastern upper Michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Elongated trough axis and core of coldest
temperature anomalies on there way out, as large area of surface
high pressure builds into the region. Despite subtle warming aloft,
conditions remain more than cold enough to continue to drum up the
lake processes, with this especially being the case across Lake
Superior where maximized fetch length and enhanced low level
converge along lake aggregate troughing is helping compensate for a
lowering subsidence inversion and loss of that synoptic scale
support. The result, still some decent multi-bands rotating into
eastern upper Michigan, with transient snowfall rates likely
approaching an inch per hour at times. Further south, lake snow
intensity and organization on a notable downward trend across the
northwest lower lake belts, a result of a much shorter fetch and
complete disconnect from Lake Superior contribution.

Large scale features will continue to remain quite progressive today
and tonight, allowing mid level heights to rebound and upstream
surface high pressure to build directly across the Great Lakes. This
not only sets the stage for an end to the lake snows, but will
likely allow at least some areas to see quite a bit of sunshine by
this afternoon.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Additional snow accumulations
this morning and attendant headline concerns, especially across
eastern upper Michigan.

Details: High pressure to build rapidly into and through the region
today, exiting off to our east by this evening. This will put an end
to any meaningful lake snows as we head through the morning and
afternoon hours. Still looking like a short window early this
morning for some better bands to rotate into Chippewa county as lake
aggregate trough axis and attendant low level convergence is
maintained. May see another inch or two, particularly north of M-28.
Will leave inherited advisory as is for now, although would not be
surprised to see this headline cancelled a bit earlier than its
current 1 pm end time. Definitely not expecting much additional
accumulation across northwest lower Michigan, and plan is to expire
current set of headlines with, or shortly after, the forecast
package release.

Winds back to southwest this afternoon, with just enough very
shallow instability to perhaps drive a few flurries off Lake
Michigan into the Tip of the Mitt counties and eastern upper
Michigan. Otherwise, drying is rather aggressive, with definite
signs that shallow moisture tied to sinking subsidence inversion
will mix out heading through this afternoon. Always hesitant this
time of year to be too aggressive clearing skies, but gotta believe
skies will trend to partly cloudy, if not mostly sunny, through this
afternoon, especially the further south one goes. Development of
weak warm advection and increasing sunshine will help temperatures
recovery a bit, with highs today ranging from the upper 20s to lower
30s (these still are well below normal for this time of year).

Southwest flow only intensifies further tonight as high pressure
advances into New England by morning. Extremely dry low levels and
continued warming should limit any lake moisture contribution,
although wouldn`t be surprised to see some very shallow strato-cu
rotate off Lake Michigan into eastern upper. Moisture tied to
northeast moving southern stream wave looks to remain well off to
our south. Upshot to the above, a rather remarkably quiet night
across the northwoods. Maintenance of light southerly flow and that
deepening warm air advection will prevent temperatures from tanking
too much, with overnight lows in the upper teens to middle 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...Quiet Thursday with light precipitation heading into Friday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Perhaps some light freezing drizzle
across a portion of northern Lower Thursday night, particularly
northeast Lower.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface ridging associated with high
pressure centered over the Northeast will provide fair weather over
northern Michigan on Thursday. A cutoff low lifting through the
Ohio Valley Thursday night will open up as it assimilates with a
system riding up the East Coast. Deformation banding on the backside
of this wave will spread into northeast Lower Thursday night, only
to be quickly displaced by a potent Clipper system on Friday. Colder
air will progressively wrap in behind this departing system Friday

Primary Forecast Concerns...Precip chances Thursday night into

Models have been trending more towards deformation banding spreading
some light precipitation across northeast Lower Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings initially show a relatively shallow moist layer
just off the surface, especially northwest of the deformation axis.
This may lead to some freezing drizzle for a time Thursday night,
but not expecting this to produce any significant impacts. Low level
moisture still looks somewhat limited heading into Friday, but it
should be deep enough for light snow showers (minimal accumulations)
transitioning to rain showers as the clipper system moves through
and temperatures warm through the 30s. However, large scale lift is
unimpressive with this system, and so is QPF. Will limit most areas
to only chance PoPs. Not a strong influx of cold air behind the
departing wave, so lake influences will be minimal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Models have been trending less impressive with regard to potential
lake effect snow this weekend, as the coldest H8 air is generally
progged to stay just to our north over Ontario. There will still be
some lake influence through the weekend into early next week,
particularly affecting eastern Upper with occasional showers
affecting northwest Lower. However, activity looks to be far from
robust. Another clipper system may brush northern Michigan on


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Strong high pressure and dry air will continue to build into the
Western Great Lakes region tonight into Thursday. Any lingering
lake effect snow showers will end later this afternoon...with
decreasing lake clouds as we head into the evening hours. Overall
conditions will be VFR...with a few spots of MVFR within the
lingering light snow showers this afternoon. Winds will become
light/variable tonight and then shift to the south AOB 10 kts on


Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

After a brief reprieve today, southwest to south winds will
be on the increase tonight, with these gusty winds continuing right
through Thursday evening. Strongest winds will target northern Lake
Michigan and Whitefish Bay. Current trends support a high end small
craft advisory event, although wouldn`t completely rule out an
isolated gale force wind gust or two.


LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.


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