Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 190001
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
801 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...Cloudy and cool with scattered rain showers...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure has pushed east of Michigan
into far SE Ontario this afternoon. Associated cold front now
extends from the low...bisecting Lower Michigan and then continues
to the SW thru Illinois...Missouri into Texas. Large elongated area
of rain streamed into Lower Michigan as expected...with most obs
across Northern Lower Michigan now reporting rain. Weak CAA is now
in progress in the wake of the departing low...with temps ranging
from the upper 30s in Eastern Upper and far Northern Lower Michigan
to the upper 50s near Saginaw Bay.

As we head into tonight...Surface low center and associated cold
front will continue eastward away from Michigan. Area of rain
showers currently impacting Northern Lower Michigan will follow
suite. Precip chances will come to an end for the NW half of our CWA
throughout the evening hours. However...chances of rain showers will
persist across the SE half of our CWA throughout the night as
another area of low pressure develops along the cold front...pushing
deeper moisture back into this area overnight. Overall...expect a
cloudy night across our entire CWA...even for areas where precip
chances come to a close. Northerly surface winds will strengthen
tonight in the wake of the cold front...which should preclude the
development of fog (other than maybe some patchy shallow ground fog
from melting snow). Overnight lows will cool into the mid to upper
30s across our entire CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: None

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Showers chances

Synopsis: Ridging exists over the eastern seaboard and the Rockies
with elongated troughing and associated PV-anomaly between these
two. Two pieces of energy will eventually split from this mean
troughing, with the northern one moving north toward James Bay and
central Quebec, no longer impacted our region. The southern piece of
energy digs south into the southern Mississippi Valley before
becoming a cut off low over AL/MS on Friday. On Saturday this low
treks north toward the lower Great Lakes.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Scattered shower chances

A stream of moisture with a weak Gulf connection will persist over
southeast Michigan and the lower Great Lakes through Friday. A new
surface low moving up through the Ohio Valley (spun up by the
southern stream energy mentioned above) will be able to tap into
this moisture. This combined with decent forcing  (some -divQ, PVA
and jet dynamics will produce scattered showers for portions of our
area through Friday. During the morning hours, areas in the higher
terrain of nrn lower could even see some flakes mix in with
lingering rain as the column continues to slowly cool. Areas south
of 72 and east of 27 stand the best chance of seeing mainly rain for
a large portion of the day. To the north and west of this region,
slightly drier and cooler air will be advecting in on north to
northeast winds. Precipitation moves out off to the east during the
afternoon. Northeasterly winds prevail through the day, and increase
in intensity Friday night as the pressure gradient tightens with the
approaching surface low. Highs remain mainly in the upper 40s to
near 50, except closer to Saginaw Bay where temperatures may stay in
the low 40s due to more persistent rain and clouds. Saturday morning
profiles start to saturate again as the southern low heads up
through the Ohio Valley. Some wrap around precipitation will likely
pivot over our area, mainly impacting areas east of I-75 in the
afternoon. This will again keep areas to the south and east cooler
than farther north and west. Things quiet down Saturday night into
Sunday, with only mid-level moisture remaining as the upper level
low slowly pulls off to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Multiple chances for showers

Shortwave ridging tries to briefly build into the region behind the
departing upper low on Sunday. A passing frontal boundary may give
us some additional shots at scattered showers through the day. To
start off the work week the upper level flow turns fairly zonal,
leading to near normal temperatures. But some snow may still mix in
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a high sets up over James
Bay, giving us cooler north-northeasterly winds. Any waves passing
by look weak as of now, but will still produce slight chances of
rain each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 801 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Surface low pressure is over far SE Ontario with a cold front
stretching all the way down to the Gulf coast. Showers continue to
stream northeastward along and behind the front up through
portions of lower Michigan, skirting parts of northeast lower
Michigan through Friday morning. Lots of IFR cloud cover and some
fog behind the front will linger across northern Michigan
tonight. Dry air will overspread the region on Friday and
eventually thin out the low cloud, returning the terminal sites to
VFR as we go through the day.

Gusty northerly winds will be found across the region through
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Winds and waves will increase to SCA criteria across much of our
Lakes Michigan and Huron nearshore areas tonight thru Friday in the
wake of departing low pressure. The chance of showers will continue
to impact portions of our nearshore areas into the weekend...mainly
for our Lake Huron nearshore areas.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
     LHZ349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 AM to 3 PM EDT Friday for LHZ348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...MR


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