Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 190353
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1153 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Nothing of note this evening. Managed to get some congested cu and
wanna-be sprinkles much earlier in the evening over Missaukee Co,
but all cu has fizzled with loss of heating. Min temps tonight
will generally be near to slightly warmer than last night, thanks
to a somewhat warmer start to the night. No major changes are
needed.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

...Quiet Stretch of Weather...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals
sprawling high pressure centered essentially across lower
Michigan, downstream from short wave ridging sliding into
Wisconsin. Closed short wave noted over the Dakotas, but will not
impact our area until later tomorrow night. Per visible satellite
imagery, we did manage to develop some fair weather CU, along both
northern lower MI coastlines and the marine layer, as well as
across interior eastern upper MI. However, not nearly as
extensive as Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: None. Heating induced CU will of course
fade this evening leaving clear skies/light winds for the overnight
hours. Another cool-ish night is in store with lows ranging from
the middle 40s to lower 50s, similar to last nights lows. But
given another day of good mixing and surface dewpoints now
running lower than this time yesterday, I don`t think fog will be
as much an issue compared to last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

...Rain chances increase to wrap up the week...

High Impact Weather Potential: Slight chance of thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening.

Pattern Forecast: Weak upper level ridge axis and attendant surface
high pressure centered atop northern Michigan early Thursday morning
gradually become displaced east throughout the day ahead of a well-
defined, closed upper level wave and associated surface low pressure
dropping southeastward out of the northern plains. This system will
arrive into the western Great Lakes early Friday into Saturday
bringing a relatively extended period of increased rain chances to
northern Michigan through at least the first half of the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Increasing precip chances
Friday through Saturday.

Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated Thursday as
high pressure overhead gradually drifts off to the east throughout
the day. Mostly sunny skies to start will give way to increasing
high clouds during the afternoon/evening ahead of the aforementioned
area of low pressure dropping into the Upper Mississippi Valley
during the day Thursday before slowly progressing eastward into the
Great Lakes Friday-Friday night. High temperatures expected to be a
few degrees above normal area wide ranging from near 80 to the mid
80s area-wide.

Southerly winds will aid to increase deep layer moisture Thursday
night...evident by PWs progged to climb to above 1.60 inches by
early Friday morning. Isentropically driven showers will become
possible as early as Friday morning, primarily west of Interstate
75; however, better shower chances hold off until Friday afternoon/
evening in association with more prominent forcing pinwheeling into
the area. Not overly enthusiastic with thunder chances at this
juncture, although a couple hundred J/kg of MLCAPE may prove to be
enough for a few embedded rumbles of thunder. No severe weather
anticipated given anemic bulk shear values under 20 kts. High
temperatures Friday ranging from the upper 70s to the mid 80s area-
wide.

A similar story for Friday night into Saturday, although guidance
begins to diverge with respect to low pressure placement and
strength. Either solution will certainly continue shower chances
into at least Saturday; however, shower coverage and intensity
remain rather low confidence at this juncture. High temperatures
Saturday expected to be several degrees cooler given extensive cloud
cover...in the 70s across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Wrap around moisture on the backside of departing low pressure may
allow occasional showers to continue through Sunday across at least
parts of northern Michigan. Otherwise, another weak boundary is set
to cross the area on Tuesday, perhaps bringing another scattered
shower/storm threat, before high pressure returns toward the middle
of next week. Near-normal late July temperatures expected for much
of the extended period...varying from the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1153 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

VFR, except for some valley fog impacting MBL.

High pressure is over and just east of lower MI this evening,
providing dry air and minimal cloud cover. This high will slowly
slide eastward thru Thursday, with quiet wx resulting. MBL has
been reporting some vsby restrictions over the past hour (which
may or may not be correct) and light rain (which is absolutely not
correct). Will tempo in some IFR vsbys at MBL early this morning.

Light winds tonight, a bit of southerly breeze developing
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

High pressure across the region tonight will make way for light
southerly return flow to develop by Thursday morning. Winds
gradually increase late Thursday night into Friday with the
potential for small craft advisories across parts of the area. An
area of low pressure approaches the region Friday into the weekend,
likely bringing occasional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MG



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