Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 302312
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
612 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

...Cold temperatures tonight, with more to come this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential...Impactful lake effect continues
over NW Chippewa county tonight. Very cold apparent temperatures
overnight, especially in inland Chippewa/Mackinac counties.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Upper level low continues over Hudson
Bay, with a ripple in that flow to the east and northeast of us
moving away from the region. Surface high pressure over the
northern Plains was gradually working its way toward the Great
Lakes.

Satellite and WSR-88D returns show snow showers are now
entirely lake effect. Northern lower is seeing small dendrite
"sugar snow", occasionally reducing visibility but not resulting
in much accumulation. Ern upper is seeing more substantial
activity, with multiple LkSup bands converging near and west of
Whitefish Point.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Lake effect activity over NW Chip will
continue, and the winter weather advisory for that area will
continue through the evening. Drier air will feed into the region
overnight, gradually thinning and diminishing lake effect
activity. Satellite imagery and surface observations show clear
skies over northern Wisconsin and inland parts of wrn and central
upper, a testament to the strength of the dry air advection. All
this sets up conditions for very cold air overnight, especially
over inland ern upper where temperatures will dip well below zero
by morning. Elsewhere temperatures won`t be quite so dramatic, but
inland lower minimum temperatures will approach zero, with typical
cold spots potentially dipping several degrees below that.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 959 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: moderate... below average
temperatures and cold wind chills expected Tuesday morning.

Pattern Synopsis: Extensive longwave troughing continues to
encompass much of the CONUS, supplying the a good majority of the
country with ample cold air. Closer to home, a weak area of high
pressure will be over the Ohio Valley and southern lakes Tuesday
morning, keeping the CWA with limited moisture from lake effect
instability. Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave with trough axis centered
across Minnesota will be pressing eastward, with limited synoptic
moisture, and generating synoptic ascent across the northern Great
Lakes. The shortwave eventually passes through Tuesday evening and
into the overnight, and will bring a temporary jolt to the
atmospheric profile by injecting modest amounts of synoptic moisture
into the low levels, and thus allowing any lake effect instability
to turn slightly more robust, with more westerly flow advecting the
instability inland. Another weak area of high pressure returns
Wednesday, putting back into limited lake effect instability through
the day.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Lake effect snows Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning.

Cold air will certainly not be in short supply for Tuesday and
Wednesday. The initial, and potentially most noteworthy concern will
be temperatures and wind chills Tuesday morning (see near term for
further details). After the cold start to the day, we do warm up
ever so slightly through the day Tuesday...but highs will largely be
in the low-to-mid teens across the CWA, with wind chills struggling
to breach zero in many places Tuesday afternoon. For reference, the
average highs this time of year are between 23-28 degrees. Much of
the day will be spent dry across the CWA, with the exception of some
mangled lake effect snow potential in SW flow areas (Leelanau, Tip
of the Mitt, and western Mackinac). Soundings show limited moisture
in the DGZ, which, owing to how cold it will be, will be in the low
levels of the atmospheric profile. Given inverted-V soundings, this
does not bode well for lake effect snow showers, so activity much of
the day may just be limited to flurries with the occasional passing
snow shower. Any accumulations on Tuesday will be quite minor and
will be limited to the aforementioned areas.

Tuesday night, the aforementioned shortwave will approach, and will
provide just enough moisture supply into the DGZ that fantastic over-
lake instability (delta-Ts approaching 20 to 25, inversion heights
spike to 800-750mb) will be able to be utilized. WSW to W flow will
be dominant through the night, and will likely lead to much of the
lake effect activity favoring NW lower, with perhaps some activity
leaking into Whitefish Point later Tuesday night as winds veer more
westerly. This activity will carry into Wednesday, but moisture will
begin to slacken once again, and as high pressure passes to our
south, weakening surface flow will also limit how far inland much of
the lake effect activity will be advected. In addition, inversion
heights will fall through the day, which will also limit deeper
development of any lake effect. Accumulations from Tuesday night
into Wednesday will generally be light... most spots that observe
snows across NW lower see an inch or two at best, with perhaps some
localized 4"+ totals across Emmet and Cheboygan Counties,
particularly in the event that a Little Traverse Bay influence can
be realized for a more extended period of time. Once again, a
limiting factor in this, despite high ratio (18-23 to 1), will be
that the low nature of the DGZ will be impacted by any dry air in
the low levels. This could lead to lesser pronounced aggregates and
more needles in terms of snowflake composition, which could lead to
less efficient snows and therefore, totals potentially being a
little underwhelming.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 959 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: moderate owing to an even colder
period expected Thursday night into Saturday morning, possibly
coinciding with heightened snow potential.

Cold temperatures will continue to dictate much of the long term
pattern across northern lower and eastern upper Michigan as
continued progressive (but split) NW flow will allow for the
prolonging of shortwave passages across the Great Lakes, which will
reinforce troughing across the region, with the snowy pattern
expected to continue into the end of the week. Confidence continues
to grow in the climax (or in this case, the abyss) of the cold
pattern arriving Thursday night as a potent arctic front will allow
for cold air to surge into the Great Lakes, while a deep 500mb low
associated with a lobe of the polar vortex moves into the Quebec and
Ontario region, where modeled 850mb temps are being modeled less
than -40 degrees Celsius. While the core of the cold air will be
located just to our east, it will be more than cold enough in the
low levels to induce lake effect snows, and given that there will be
an injection of synoptic moisture from the arctic front, there may
be a more prolonged window of lake effect activity Thursday into
Friday. How heavy this period of lake effect will be is still in
question, but given that the airmass will be quite cold, it may once
again be limited in a way if dry air once again impacts the DGZ in
the low levels...that being said, with how powdery recent snowfall
is (and how high ratios will likely be from any snowfall associated
with the arctic front and subsequent lake effect), the idea of gusty
winds spells the potential for reduced visibilities from blowing
snow, which could turn commutes dangerous given expected cold
weather.

The other story dominating the long term will obviously be the
aforementioned cold associated with the arctic front. Winds during
and in the wake of the frontal passage are looking to be quite
gusty. This, combined with very cold temperatures Thursday night
into Friday, will lead to the potential for dangerous wind chills
(some less than -30) as air temps fall below zero for most on
Thursday night and barely get into the single digits Friday. The
coldest air temps are expected to build Friday night, as high
pressure passes overhead, which could lead to clearing skies among a
calming trend in winds. Given that much of the region will have a
fresh snowpack, this will easily be the coldest night of the year
thus far, with several ensembles having min temps in the single
digits and teens below zero (some even colder than that) across much
of the area Friday night. Beyond this, guidance shows that we return
to a more southerly flow Saturday as high pressure moves to our
east, which is looking like it will allow for "milder" temperatures
to build through the weekend (highs in the 20s and low 30s), with
the potential for a clipper system to pass through at some point
either Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 611 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

Mostly VFR conditions expected through this taf period with high
based lake clouds and a few light snow showers. Winds become
lighter tonight, backing southwest and increasing in speed again
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

Small craft advisories will continue along most of our nearshore
areas at least through the evening. Lake effect snow showers will
continue to fall across our typical snowbelt areas...with the
heaviest and most persistent snowfall occurring around Whitefish
Point in far NW Chippewa county.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ086.
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ346>348.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ342-344>346.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ321.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JHV
SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...JHV


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