Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 161438
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1038 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and an area of low pressure will bring another
round of showers to the region today. This frontal boundary
shifts south of the region Monday leading to a break in the
rain. However, this frontal boundary will lift back slowly
northward bringing additional showers by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

1035 AM update...

Rain showers will continue through early afternoon, then slowly
taper off. The latest model guidance came in slightly cooler
for this afternoon, and based on current temperatures and the
amount of low clouds and showers, this seems reasonable.

Rapid clearing tonight will produce fog overnight.

6 AM update...

Minor changes to the precipitation with the sunrise update.
Otherwise, forecast on track below.

A wave of low pressure this morning will track from north
central Pennsylvania into the Southern Tier along a cold front.
Moisture is being lifted enough along this front enough for
another round of showers. Mesoscale modeling with the HRRR, NAM
and RGEM seem to have a fairly good handle on the timing. The
Finger Lakes southward to the Elmira area should see the
majority of this in the sunrise to late morning period. The I-81
regions should see this round a little later from the morning
into the early afternoon. The Southern Catskills will be the
last to see these showers by this afternoon.

Radar continues to show these showers are of the light to
moderate variety. However, these showers could still drop 1/2 to
locally over an inch of rain today in spots. Rainfall will
actually keep temperatures from rising much in the day. We have
trended high temperatures down for today with most spots
staying in the 60`s with low 70`s in NE PA.

The cold front shifts slowly south tonight allowing for some
clearing with showers coming to an end as well. Temperatures
should fall into the 50`s and low 60`s. With high pressure to
our north, more in the way of sunshine is likely on Monday. As a
result, temperatures should be quite a warmer and get well into
the 70`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
210 AM UPDATE...

Model differences in the short term have added a bit of
uncertainty to the forecast. Operational NAM pushes the frontal
boundary further south bringing a generally dry period from
Monday into Tuesday, while the EURO and GFS develop a stronger
wave along the further north front spreading a broad area of
rain across NEPA and into the southern tier of NY. Previous
forecast had more rain than the NAM forecasts so have continued
that trend, although have trimmed back the coverage and pops a
bit. This will bring us closer in line to the the neighboring
offices and is more toward a blend of the models. Otherwise just
some minor adjustments to the temps and other weather elements.


Previous discussion continues below.

An active period, with multiple waves moving through a moist and
unstable westerly flow. Best chance for periods of showers and
thunderstorms will be across NE PA and perhaps up into the NY
southern tier through the short term period...meanwhile much of this
time frame may end up dry further north toward the NY Thruway
corridor. Temperatures will be near average with highs in the 70s
(near 80 south) and lows in the mid-50s to low 60s.

Monday and Monday night: Starting off dry as high pressure noses in
from Ontario/New England. Then a shortwave rolls through the Ohio
Valley, with a weak surface low reflection moving eastward across
southern PA. Instability increase Monday afternoon and evening,
mainly south of the NY/PA border. PWATS rise to around 1.5 inches
along and south of the NY/PA border and surface dew points rise back
into the upper 50s and lower 60s. There are still minor model
differences in the exact track and timing of the above mentioned
feature, but it seems there will be a good chance for showers and a
few thunderstorms again from the NY southern tier south into  NE PA
late Monday and Monday night...in fact the latest ECMWF actually
shows a period of heavier rain moving through during this time.
Therefore, went ahead and added some likely PoPs for our southern
and eastern zones. Also went close to WPC QPF for this period, which
was quite high; a half to three quarters of an inch near Scranton--
Honesdale and Monticello.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: Zonal, moist and unstable flow continues
as the stalled frontal boundary remains over the region. Additional
weak disturbances will likely moves through the area...but tough to
time these at this range. Therefore went to high end chance to low
end likely far south in NE PA, to lower end chance for the NY
southern tier, the mainly dry or slight chance up toward the Thruway
corridor of NY. Again, it looks like there could be moderate amounts
of instability mainly from the Twin Tiers south so added in chances
of thunder here.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: A very persistent pattern continues
with much of the same into this period. Higher chance PoPs still for
NE PA, fading to low chance or slight chance north. It appears there
is decent agreement between the latest guidance that the flow will
turn a bit more southwesterly out ahead of the next more significant
shortwave and low pressure system that looks to potentially impact
our area toward Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
210 AM UPDATE...

Long term continues the parade of short waves marching along the
stalled frontal boundary. Strongest looks to arrive late
Thursday into Friday with a sharper upper wave and a closed
surface low. Behind this system a break looks to arrive as
ridging aloft arrives as the surface front gets pushed well to
the south and east. This could be short lived however as
moisture rounds the top of the ridge and drops in for Saturday.
Followed the latest guidance to adjust the grids in the period
but no real substantive changes.

Previous discussion below.


345 PM UPDATE...

Rain chances will increase for Thursday with another surface low
moving through the Ohio Valley and towards New England. The best
chances for rain will be during the afternoon and evening ahead of
the approaching cold front, and with some elevated CAPE and a well-
sheared environment, thunderstorms are looking increasingly likely.
With precipitable water up to 1-1.5 in during this time, there is a
chance for heavy downpours in storms.

Chances for showers linger throughout the day Friday behind the
exiting system, and while most areas should stay dry Friday night
into Saturday morning with high pressure briefly building in,
chances for showers will increase again Saturday with another surge
of moisture across the region as another surface low developing in
the Plains heads towards Lake Superior.

Otherwise, little change in temperatures with this forecast update.
Highs will generally be in the mid 70s, and lows in the mid/upper
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions ranging from VFR at KAVP to LIFR at KRME/KSYR.
Ceilings will likely lift some this morning with the arrival of
showers but remain at IFR/MVFR at NY terminals throughout most
of the day. Any LIFR ceilings should lift by 15Z. Trends this
afternoon will be for slow improvement with the ceilings. Winds
will be lighter today under 10 knots. Generally VFR tonight
with some fog restrictions possible around sunrise Monday at
KELM.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night: mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Thursday... Restrictions Possible with a period
or two of showers. The highest coverage looks to be on
Thursday. A thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out at some
point.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...DJP/MWG
SHORT TERM...DGM/MJM
LONG TERM...DGM/HLC
AVIATION...MWG


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