Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 310016
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
716 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Another batch of light rain and snow will move through today
before a period of lake effect snow tonight into Tuesday
southeast of Lake Ontario. Several inches of lake effect snow
are possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5 PM Update...

There have been a few pockets of freezng rain/drizzle across
the Southern Tier this afternoon. However, thermal profiles show
colder air is moving in aloft and any freezing rain will be
brief as the front drifts through, but nonetheless, have added
the mention of freezing to forecast through this evening for
parts of the Southern Tier and into NE PA. Also, have increased
PoPs as measurable precip should occur across most of the
region, so a large portion of the area now has categorical PoPs
through this evening. Precipitation will be changing to snow
this evening as colder air filters in and a weak shortwave
pushing through will kick off a period of light snow. Any
accumulations will be light, with most areas seeing a half inch
or less. Drier air pushes in later tonight and widespread snow
will come to an end, but lake effect snow will start getting
going by early Tuesday morning across northern Onondaga County.


Afternoon Forecast Discussion...

Showers have tapered off a little bit this afternoon, with some
light snow showers and drizzle occurring east of the Finger
Lakes region. The next batch of rain is moving into western PA
and should continue into our CWA late this afternoon/early
evening. The frontal boundary is currently draped over the
Southern Tier and is not expected to start moving to the SE
until a shortwave from southern Canada enters the region and
brings NW flow and cold air advection, which gets the boundary
moving later this evening. Snow showers are expected to cover
the area and slowly move ESE as the shortwave moves in and the
boundary gets going. These showers are not expected to drop a
lot of snow, with under an inch for most locations.

The main weather issue for this period will be a lake effect
snow band developing across Oneida, Madison and Onondaga
counties. 850mb temps should be -16C to -18C as cold air spills
in from Canada. This, combined with a pretty strong wind
convergence zone along the southern shore of Ontario and model
soundings showing an lot of saturation in the DGZ, lake effect
showers should be sustained for several hours.  The snow band
should move into Oneida county by 06z and slide south before
settling across northern Onondaga, Madison and southern Oneida
county from 07Z into the mid- morning Wednesday. High pressure
building in from the west will disrupt the wind pattern over the
lake and cease lake effect snow by early afternoon. By Tuesday
evening, the wind pattern over Lake Ontario will be WSW which
will bring lake effect snow showers to the eastern shores of
Lake Ontario. Orientation of the snow showers should keep most
of them north of the CWA, but a few stray snow showers could
move over northern Onondaga through Tuesday night.

Temperatures today have a wide spread due to the stalled frontal
boundary over the region. NEPA and the Wyoming valley is
currently in the low to upper 40s. The Southern Tier and
Catskills are in the low to upper 30s and areas north of the
Southern Tier are in the upper 20s to low 30s. Once the boundary
gets moving, temps in NEPA will slowly fall through the
night, bottoming out in the upper 20s in the Wyoming Valley with
mid to low 20s across the rest of the area. CAA will drop temps
in NY into the mid teens to low 20s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 PM Update

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the quiet weather
conditions and seasonal temperatures Wednesday into Thursday and
then the onset of what will be some of the coldest air this winter
season Thursday night along with light accumulating lake effect
snow...increasing west/northwest winds and areas of blowing snow.

Synoptic pattern on Wednesday and into Thursday will be mostly
defined by weak high pressure at the surface and a cold zonal flow
aloft. Most of the forcing and available moisture for precipitation
will be south of the Mason-Dixon line during this time, so we are
not anticipating any rain or snow Wed through most of Thu.

Temperatures will start out near normal for this time of year with
highs on Wednesday rising into the 20s and lower 30s. Overnight lows
Wed night will fall into the teens for most of the forecast area,
with the exception of the Wyoming Valley where 20s are possible.
Rising heights and a brief push of warmer air from the south/sw on
Thursday will bring high temperatures into the mid to upper 30s with
some clearing possible but with breezy southwest winds around 15 to
20 mph making it still feel rather cold.

This wedge of rising heights aloft will quickly shift to the east
later in the day Thu as a strong Arctic front starts to move south
across the Ontario Plains into the northern Great Lakes. This front
will naturally move southeastward over the lakes and be able to pick
up moisture that will begin to be deposited into central NY in the
form of lake effect snow showers Thursday night. 850mb temperatures
will drop from around -5 deg C Thu evening...to around -25 deg C by
dawn Friday. There will likely be a window of very favorable thermal
profiles for lake effect snow during this time where a quick 1-2
inches is possible, but overall snow accumulations will be limited
due to the transition to an air mass that is only cold enough to
support very small ice crystals. So, even though it will be snowing
at a moderate clip, the nature of the snow will limit the
accumulation. The increasing winds will also limit the accumulation
potential. Wind gusts 20 to 30 mph are possible...which will lead to
some areas of blowing snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM Update

The very cold air will continue to spill in from the north on Friday
which will allow the persistent lake effect snow showers to persist
through the day and slowly taper off Friday night. The Arctic air
mass will be defined by 850mb temperatures from -25 to -35 deg
C...which is roughly 2-3 standard deviations below average for this
time of year. Surface temperatures will only climb into the single
digits north of Cortland...and into the teens and lower 20s south of
there. This will set the stage for the coldest night of the season,
where overnight lows Friday night are expected to fall below zero
for the entire forecast area. The coldest readings will be over the
Catskills and into the Tug Hill where negative teens and 20s are
likely. The combination of these very cold temperatures and winds
gusting 10 to 20 mph will lead to wind chill values between -15 and -
40 deg F. Wind Chill headlines will be needed.

Residual cold air will hang on during the day Saturday with highs
only getting up into the single digits and teens above zero. The
pattern will take a rapid turn warmer though as high pressure and
rising heights aloft build into the region. A southerly flow will
develop Saturday night, but temperatures will still either drop or
remain steady in the single digits and teens above zero. Some wind
chills could drop below zero. Highs on Sunday will rebound back into
the 30s for most of the area as the next short wave rotates east
across the region with another round of rain and/or snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Snow has been moving south with the cold front this evening
bringing IFR conditions to BGM and ELM and near IFR conditions
at SYR, RME, and ITH. Observations across the thruway corridor
has not fallen often below IFR so increased the vis in the tempo
for SYR and RME to just barely getting to IFR at times. AVP will
have rain initially as the front reaches the terminal after 2Z
with a changeover to snow around 4Z. The snow associated with
the cold front ends from NW to SE with lake effect snow
developing and continuing to impact SYR and RME into the
morning. Some lake effect snow showers could make it to BGM,
ITH, and ELM tomorrow but confidence was lower so prob 30s were
put in for the best timing of the snow showers. High pressure
builds in late so cigs will be clearing and showers will be
ending 0Z tomorrow approaches.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Thursday...Mainly VFR

Friday...Lake effect snow showers possible,
impacting SYR, RME, ITH and possibly BGM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ009-018-036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JTC/TAC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...AJG/JTC


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